ZIMBABWE ELECTION: VOTE COUNTING UNDERWAY ON MARCH 12

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000657 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER PARIS FOR NEARY LONDON FOR GURNEY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/12 TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE ELECTION: VOTE COUNTING UNDERWAY ON MARCH 12 CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) POLLING STATIONS IN HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA CLOSED AT 7:00 P.M. ON MARCH 11, LEAVING LONG LINES OF VOTERS IN SOME AREAS UNABLE TO CAST BALLOTS. THE VERIFICATION OF BALLOT BOXES BEGAN THE MORNING OF MARCH 12 AND VOTE-COUNTING AT MOST BALLOT CENTERS DID NOT BEGIN UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LATE START, WE DO NOT EXPECT COMPLETE RESULTS TO BE ANNOUNCED UNTIL SOMETIME ON MARCH 13. MEANWHILE, THE MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WAS ARRESTED -- AND LATER RELEASED AFTER AN OVERNIGHT DETENTION -- AND FORMALLY CHARGED WITH TREASON, WHILE AT LEAST FIVE MDC ELECTION AGENTS ASSIGNED TO MONITOR THE COUNTING OF VOTES WERE ARRESTED. A SECOND AMERICAN CITIZEN HAS BEEN ARRESTED, BUT WE HAVE BEEN UNSUCCESSFUL IN GAINING ACCESS TO HIM TO LEARN ADDITIONAL DETAILS. END SUMMARY. DISENFRANCHISEMENT OF HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA VOTERS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) ALL POLLING STATIONS IN HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA CLOSED ON MARCH 11 AT 7:00 P.M. OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER (EVEN THOUGH MOST HAD NOT EVEN OPENED UNTIL 12:00 P.M. IN DEFIANCE OF A HIGH COURT ORDER). VOTERS STANDING IN LINE AT THAT POINT WERE NOT ALLOWED TO CAST BALLOTS, DESPITE EARLIER ASSURANCES TO THE CONTRARY FROM CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00657 01 OF 02 121603Z SENIOR GOZ OFFICIALS, AND WERE FORCED TO DISPERSE BY HEAVILY-ARMED POLICE. THE MDC INFORMED US THAT 1500 PEOPLE WERE STANDING IN LINE AT BOTH ZUVARABUDA SCHOOL IN GLEN NORAH HIGH DENSITY SUBURB AND AT DZIVARASEKWA COMMUNITY CENTER WHEN THE POLLING STATIONS CLOSED. A NORWEGIAN DIPLOMAT TOLD US HE HAD PERSONALLY WITNESSED THE CLOSING OF A STATION IN GLENVIEW TOWNSHIP WITH 700 WOULD-BE VOTERS STILL IN LINE. THEY WERE ANGRY BUT LEFT PEACEFULLY AFTER BEING TOLD BY POLICE TO DISPERSE. IT IS CLEAR THAT THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL DISENFRANCHISEMENT OF VOTERS IN THESE TWO URBAN AREAS WHICH IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO QUANTIFY. OUR NORWEGIAN COLLEAGUE ESTIMATES THAT A TOTAL OF AT LEAST 10-15,000 VOTERS WERE STANDING IN LINE IN GREATER HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA WHEN THE STATIONS CLOSED. THAT FIGURE, OF COURSE, DOES NOT INCLUDE THE POTENTIALLY LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE WHO DID NOT VOTE BECAUSE THEY WERE SCARED AWAY BY THE ABSURDLY LONG LINES. WE NOTE THAT IN HARARE AND ENVIRONS, THE CONSTITUENCY LISTS AVERAGE 5,000 VOTERS PER POLLING PLACE, WITH SOME AS HIGH AS 7,000. THE AVERAGE FOR BULAWAYO WAS 3,000. ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY, THE CONSTITUENCY AVERAGE WAS 1,000 REGISTERED VOTERS PER STATION. COUNTING -------------- ¶3. (U) THE VERIFICATION OF BALLOT BOXES AND THEIR CONTENTS CONSUMED MUCH OF THE MORNING OF MARCH 12, ACCORDING TO THE STATE- CONTROLLED ZIMBABWE BROADCASTING CORPORATION (ZBC). COUNTING AT MOST CENTERS THEN BEGAN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO ANNOUNCED AT A PRESS CONFERENCE THAT RESULTS WOULD LIKELY BE ANNOUNCED ON MARCH 13 AND HE EXPRESSED SATISFACTION AT HOW THE ELECTION PROCESS HAD BEEN CONDUCTED. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00657 01 OF 02 121603Z ¶4. (C) COMMENT: THERE IS ONE COUNTING CENTER FOR EACH OF ZIMBABWE'S 120 CONSTITUENCIES. WHEN THE COUNTING AT EACH CENTER IS FINISHED, THE RESULTS WILL BE COMMUNICATED VIA PROVINCIAL COMMAND CENTERS TO THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL'S OFFICE IN HARARE, WHICH WILL ANNOUNCE RESULTS. DURING THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, THE REGISTRAR-GENERAL ANNOUNCED RESULTS CONSTITUENCY BY CONSTITUENCY ON THE GOZ-CONTROLLED TELEVISION AND RADIO. THIS TIME, IF THE CONSTITUENCY RESULTS BEGIN TO LOOK BAD FOR THE RULING PARTY, THE R.G. COULD WAIT TO RELEASE THE NUMBERS. AN EU CONTACT WAS TOLD BY A GOZ OFFICIAL THAT THE RG WOULD WAIT TO RELEASE FIGURES UNTIL HE HAS A "CRITICAL MASS" OF NUMBERS. ARRESTS OF KEY MDC OFFICIALS -------------- ¶5. (C) MEANWHILE, MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE WAS ARRESTED BY POLICE ON MARCH 11 NEAR THE BORDER WITH BOTSWANA. HE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY HIS FAMILY, WHICH WAS ALLOWED TO PROCEED INTO BOTSWANA. NCUBE, MEANWHILE, WAS TAKEN TO BULAWAYO POLICE HEADQUARTERS, THEN TRANSFERRED TO THE CENTRAL POLICE STATION IN HARARE, WHERE HE ARRIVED AT 3:00 A.M. ON MARCH 12. NCUBE HAS BEEN IMPLICATED -- ALONG WITH MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI AND TWO CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ6010 PAGE 01 HARARE 00657 02 OF 02 121604Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 SS-00 TRSE-00 T-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /005W -------------- 733BB0 121604Z /45 O 121538Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1184 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000657 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER PARIS FOR NEARY LONDON FOR GURNEY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/12 TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00657 02 OF 02 121604Z SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE ELECTION: VOTE COUNTING UNDERWAY ON MARCH 12 JUNIOR MPS -- IN THE ALLEGED PLOT TO ASSASSINATE PRESIDENT MUGABE. POLICE SAID THEY SUSPECTED THAT NCUBE WAS TRYING TO FLEE POTENTIALLY SERIOUS CRIMINAL CHARGES AND PROCEEDED FORMALLY TO CHARGE HIM WITH TREASON ON MARCH 12. HE WAS RELEASED LATER THE SAME DAY ON A BAIL OF 500,000 ZIMBABWEAN DOLLARS (APPROXIMATELY U.S.$ 1500). ¶6. (C) TSVANGIRAI'S SPECIAL ADVISOR GANDI MUDZINGWA TOLD POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF THAT NCUBE -- AT THE INSTRUCTION OF THE MDC'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE -- WAS PLANNING TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY THE DAY HE WAS ARRESTED. HE HAD INTENDED TO ESCORT HIS FAMILY TO THE BOTSWANA BORDER, THEN JOIN THEM IN JOHANNESBURG VIA A FLIGHT FROM BULAWAYO LATER THAT DAY. THE PARTY'S NATIONAL EXECUTIVE HAD DETERMINED THAT SEVERAL KEY LEADERS SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY TO CARRY ON THE STRUGGLE IF THE GOZ/ZANU-PF ARREST TOP PARTY OFFICIALS AFTER THE ELECTION. AS PART OF THIS CONTINGENCY PLANNING, DEPUTY SECRETARY-GENERAL GIFT CHIMANIKIRE IS CURRENTLY IN JOHANNESBURG, SIPDIS WHERE HE ARRIVED ON MARCH 11. MUDZINGWA NOTED THAT HE, TSVANGIRAI, AND TSVANGIRAI'S WIFE ARE STAYING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN THE NORTH WING OF THE 12TH FLOOR OF HARARE'S MEIKLES HOTEL, BECAUSE MANY INTERNATIONAL OBSERVER DELEGATIONS AND FOREIGN JOURNALISTS ARE STAYING THERE DURING THE ELECTION PERIOD, AND WOULD WITNESS ANY POST-ELECTION ABUSE OF THE MDC LEADER. MUDZINGWA THOUGHT THAT NCUBE WOULD PROBABLY REMAIN IN HARARE AFTER HIS RELEASE, AND WOULD LIKELY STAY WITH TSVANGIRAI IN THE MEIKLES. ¶7. (C) MUDZINGWA TOLD US THAT FIVE OF THE MDC'S ELECTION AGENTS (THOSE OFFICIALS ACCREDITED TO OBSERVE THE COUNTING PROCESS AT THE DESIGNATED CENTERS) WERE ARRESTED TODAY. ONE WAS LATER RELEASED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00657 02 OF 02 121604Z AND THE PARTY WAS NEGOTIATING FOR THE RELEASE OF THE OTHER FOUR. PLANNED CIVIL UNREST -------------- ¶8. (C) MUDZINGWA TOLD US THAT DEMONSTRATIONS ORGANIZED BY THE MDC AND ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF TRADE UNIONS (ZCTU) COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE EVENING OF MARCH 12. ASKED WHY THE OPPOSITION PARTY WAS CONTEMPLATING LAUNCHING SUCH ACTIVITIES BEFORE THE POLL RESULTS ARE ANNOUNCED, MUDZINGWA SAID THE ANGER AT ZANU-PF IN URBAN AREAS WAS AT ITS PEAK -- AFTER THE LONG QUEUES AND DISENFRANCHISEMENT OF SO MANY VOTERS -- AND THE MDC WANTED TO BUILD ON THAT MOMENTUM. NOW WAS THE TIME TO CAPITALIZE ON THIS SENTIMENT WITH ACTIONS INTENDED TO PRESSURE ZANU-PF TO ACCEPT AN MDC VICTORY. SECOND AMERICAN ARRESTED -------------- ¶9. (C) A SECOND NON-OFFICIAL AMERICAN HAS BEEN ARRESTED -- THIS TIME IN THE MASHONALAND CENTRAL TOWN OF MVURWI ON MARCH 11. WE WERE INFORMED OF HIS ARREST BY A PRIVATE CITIZEN. SINCE THE GOVERNMENT HAS REFUSED SO FAR TO PROVIDE ACCESS TO HIM, WE HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO DETERMINE THE DETAILS OF HIS CASE, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE LEARNED HE IS A FREE-LANCE JOURNALIST WHO REPORTEDLY ENTERED ON A TOURIST VISA. WE ARE LODGING A STRONG PROTEST VIA DIPLOMATIC NOTE WITH THE MFA CONCERNING THE GOZ'S REFUSAL BOTH TO NOTIFY US OF THE ARREST AND TO PROVIDE ACCESS. MEANWHILE, THE AMERICAN CITIZEN ARRESTED IN MUTARE ON MARCH 8 REMAINS IN DETENTION ON CHARGES OF "POSSESSING DANGEROUS WEAPONS." (COMMENT: HE REPORTEDLY HAD A HUNTING KNIFE AND A CAN OF PEPPER SPRAY IN HIS POSSESSION, BUT WE SUSPECT THAT THE POLICE WERE ANNOYED BY HIS EFFORTS TO HELP CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00657 02 OF 02 121604Z TRANSPORT MDC MONITORS TO POLLING STATIONS PRIOR TO ELECTION DAYS. END COMMENT.) THE GOZ CONTINUES TO DENY ACCESS TO HIM. THE U.S. WARDEN IN MUTARE WITNESSED HIS COURT APPEARANCE TODAY AND REPORTED THAT HE APPEARED TO BE IN SEVERE PHYSICAL PAIN AND TO HAVE BEEN PSYCHOLOGICALLY TRAUMATIZED. THE MFA TOLD US TODAY THAT IT IS NEGOTIATING WITH THE POLICE TO SECURE US CONSULAR ACCESS TO THE AMCIT. EMBASSY OBSERVATION EFFORT -------------- ¶10. (U) TWENTY-FIVE EMBASSY OBSERVERS WERE DEPLOYED AROUND THE COUNTRY ON THE TWO ELECTION DAYS PLUS THE EXTRA DAY OF VOTING IN HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA. DURING THAT THREE-DAY PERIOD, OUR TEAMS COVERED 15,140 KILOMETERS AND VISITED 470 POLLING STATIONS (APPROXIMATELY 10 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL NUMBER OF STATIONS). THE EMBASSY ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORT HAS NOW FULLY COME TO ITS END. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >