ZIMBABWE: PRELIMINARY VOTING STATISTICS FAVOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000640 SIPDIS PRETORIA FOR A/S KANSTEINER NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER AF FOR PDAS BELLAMY E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/07 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: PRELIMINARY VOTING STATISTICS FAVOR MUGABE REF: HARARE 416 CLASSIFIED BY POL TDY AARON TARVER, REASON: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. BASED ON OFFICIAL STATISTICS RELEASED THUS FAR (WHICH WE HAVE NO WAY TO VERIFY),WE EXPECT ZANU-PF TO CLAIM VICTORY IN THE 2002 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. TURNOUT TO DATE, EVEN IN AREAS WHERE VOTING HAS BEEN TRUNCATED, HAS EXCEEDED JUNE 2000 LEVELS IN ALL PROVINCES SAVE BULAWAYO. NEVERTHELESS, IT APPEARS LESS THAN 60 PERCENT OF THOSE REGISTERED IN JANUARY TURNED UP TO VOTE, AND AS WE PREDICTED EARLIER, A LOWER TURNOUT FAVORS ZANU-PF. VOTER INCREASES FROM THE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WERE HIGHEST IN ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS IN MASHONALAND, LIKELY SUPPLEMENTED BY ZANU- PF'S LAST-MINUTE REGISTRATION CAMPAIGN. HIGH TURNOUTS IN MANICALAND AND MASVINGO MAY PRESENT THE ONLY REAL WILD CARD. SIX MONTHS OF CONTINUOUS VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, COUPLED WITH THE DIFFICULTIES FACED BY URBAN VOTERS, ARE THE ONLY REASONABLE EXPLANATIONS FOR THE RELATIVELY LOW TURNOUT. END SUMMARY. NUMBERS FAVOR MUGABE AND ZANU-PF -------------- ¶2. (C) OFFICIAL VOTING STATISTICS RELEASED THUS FAR IMPLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE RULING ZANU-PF TO DECLARE VICTORY ONCE VOTING HAS CONCLUDED IN THE MARCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. THE STATISTICS, BY PROVINCE, ARE AS FOLLOWS: CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00640 01 OF 02 111349Z PROVINCE VOTES VOTES CAST PERCENTAGE IN 2000 IN 2002** OF 2000 BULAWAYO 171,669 169,000 98% HARARE* 394,073 415,000 105% MANICALAND 272,909 363,000 133% MASHONALAND CENTRAL 247,953 331,000 133% MASHONALAND EAST 278,221 328,000 118% MASHONALAND WEST 246,783 293,000 119% MASVINGO 286,741 380,000 133% MATEBELELAND NORTH 147,828 157,000 106% MATEBELELAND SOUTH 159,579 165,000 103% MIDLANDS 350,505 379,000 108% PROVINCE VOTERS VOTES CAST PERCENTAGE REGISTERED IN 2002** BULAWAYO 368,028 169,000 46% HARARE*** 882,176 415,000 47% MANICALAND 658,694 363,000 55% MASHONALAND CENTRAL 480,092 331,000 69% MASHONALAND EAST 589,185 328,000 56% MASHONALAND WEST 572,677 293,000 51% MASVINGO 655,122 380,000 58% MATEBELELAND NORTH 338,188 157,000 46% MATEBELELAND SOUTH 343,993 165,000 48% MIDLANDS 724,659 379,000 52% * INCLUDES CHITUNGWIZA. ** THROUGH MARCH 10 AT 5 P.M. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00640 01 OF 02 111349Z *** VOTING CONTINUES HAPHAZARDLY. ¶3. (C) WE PREDICTED THAT WITH A 60 PERCENT TURNOUT, MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WOULD WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, ALBEIT BY A NARROW MARGIN. NUMBERS DO NOT QUITE REACH THAT PERCENTAGE LEVEL, HOWEVER. CURRENT NUMBERS SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 53% OF REGISTERED VOTERS TURNED OUT OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH 5 P.M. ON MARCH 10. HIGHER PERCENTAGES IN ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS -------------- ¶4. (C) MORE IMPORTANTLY, FROM THESE NUMBERS, IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST VOTER TURNOUTS OCCURRED IN TRADITIONAL ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS, THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES. EACH PROVINCE HAD WELL OVER 50% OF ELIGIBLE VOTERS TURN OUT, FOR AN OVERALL VOTING TURNOUT AVERAGE OF 58% OF TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS. MOREOVER, THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES EXPERIENCED THE LARGEST INCREASE IN OVERALL VOTERS, APPROXIMATELY 179,000 VOTERS. WE ATTRIBUTE THIS INCREASE TO ONE OR BOTH OF TWO FACTORS: 1) A SUCCESSFUL EFFORT BY ZANU-PF TO GET OUT LOYAL SUPPORTERS, AND 2) STUFFED BALLOT BOXES BY THE RULING PARTY IN THIS LARGELY NO-GO AREA FOR THE MDC. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1215 PAGE 01 HARARE 00640 02 OF 02 111349Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 VCE-00 M-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /009W -------------- 7280AC 111349Z /38 O 111257Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1173 INFO OAU COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE NSC WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000640 SIPDIS PRETORIA FOR A/S KANSTEINER NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER AF FOR PDAS BELLAMY E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/07 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: PRELIMINARY VOTING STATISTICS FAVOR MUGABE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00640 02 OF 02 111349Z TURNOUT IN MDC STRONGHOLDS LOWER THAN EXPECTED -------------- -- ¶5. (C) THE MOST SURPRISING THING REFLECTED IN OFFICIAL STATISTICS IS THE LOWER-THAN-EXPECTED TURNOUT IN EXPECTED MDC STRONGHOLDS, ESPECIALLY IN BULAWAYO, THE ONLY PLACE WHERE VOTER TURNOUT IS LOWER THAN IN THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. WE EXPECT THAT ONCE VOTING RECOMMENCES IN HARARE, THOSE NUMBERS WILL HEAVILY FAVOR THE MDC. PRESENTLY, OVERALL VOTER TURNOUT IN MDC STRONGHOLDS IS AROUND 48.36%, WELL BELOW THAT PROJECTED. AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY, A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THIS DECLINE IS EXPLAINED BY THE GOZ DECISION TO PROVIDE A REDUCED NUMBER OF POLLING PLACES IN A COMPLEX DOUBLE AND TRIPLE-TIER ELECTION. MASVINGO AND MANICALAND ONLY WILDCARDS -------------- ¶6. (C) THE ONLY OTHER PROVINCES WITH MORE THAN 50 PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT WAS IN MANICALAND AND MASVINGO, WHERE 55% AND 58%, RESPECTIVELY, OF THOSE REGISTERED TURNED OUT TO VOTE. MANICALAND SPLITS APPROXIMATELY 60- 40 FAVORING THE MDC OVER THE RULING ZANU-PF. THE ZANU- PF CANNOT AT PRESENT LAY CLAIM TO ITS HISTORICAL STRONGHOLD IN MASVINGO HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WELL- PUBLICIZED DISPUTE BETWEEN ZANU-PF STRONGMAN EDDISON ZVOBGO AND PRESIDENT MUGABE. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS THAT ZVOBGO ENERGIZED HIS SUPPORTERS TO GET OUT AND VOTE, BUT FOR TSVANGIRAI INSTEAD OF MUGABE. EVEN SO, ZVOBGO NEVER EXPECTED THE MDC TO DO MORE THAN SPLIT THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00640 02 OF 02 111349Z MASVINGO VOTE. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PREDICT A WINNER, AS VOTING CONTINUES IN HARARE AND CHITUNGWIZA. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THESE NUMBERS ARE BASED ON OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT FIGURES, WHICH MAY DIFFER VASTLY FROM THE REAL VOTER TURNOUT. THE GOVERNMENT, THROUGH THESE STATISTICAL RELEASES AND INFORMATION MINISTER JONATHAN MOYO'S ANALYSES ON RADIO, HAS SOUGHT TO BUILD EXPECTATIONS FOR A LARGE RURAL AND SMALL URBAN TURNOUT. OUR TEAMS NOTICED MASSIVE VOTER TURNOUTS IN MDC STRONGHOLDS ON MARCH 9, WHICH RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE RELIABILITY OF THE GOZ DATA. NEVERTHELESS, SHOULD THE DATA HOLD UP ON FURTHER REVIEW, IT APPEARS THAT THE GOZ'S 6 MONTH CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION, COUPLED WITH THE CALCULATED CONFUSION WROUGHT BY DECREASING URBAN POLLING STATIONS, INCREASING RURAL STATIONS, AND CONFLICTING INFORMATION ABOUT THE VOTER ROLLS, HAS PROVEN SUCCESSFUL. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >