OUR TAKE ON ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 HARARE 000620 SIPDIS FOR AF, PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR AF/S NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER CAPETOWN PLEASE PASS A/S KANSTEINER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/03 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00620 01 OF 05 081222Z TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PHUM ZI SUBJECT: OUR TAKE ON ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORTS IN ZIMBABWE REF: A) HARARE 377 B) HARARE 410 C) HARARE 611 CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. THE GOZ HAS TO A LARGE DEGREE SUCCEEDED IN ITS EFFORTS TO KEEP PRYING OUTSIDE EYES AWAY FROM THE PRE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN FIELD AND, IT NOW APPEARS, OUT OF THE POLLING STATIONS ON VOTING DAY. BY DERAILING THE EFFORTS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION MISSION AND THE ZIMBABWE ELECTIONS SUPPORT NETWORK (ZESN) DOMESTIC OBSERVERS, THE GOZ HAS ASSURED SPOTTY COVERAGE BUT HAS ALSO, INADVERTENTLY OR NOT, STRIPPED ITSELF OF ANY FIG LEAF AGAINST POST-ELECTION CHARGES THAT THE ELECTION WAS NOT PROPERLY OBSERVED. THOSE OBSERVERS OUT IN THE FIELD, AS OPPOSED TO HARARE'S LUXURY HOTELS, RANGE FROM CRITICS TO OBJECTIVISTS TO APOLOGISTS. A NUMBER OF SADC BILATERAL DELEGATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN THEIR PRO-ZANU- PF COLORS, AND THE FINAL STANCES OF LARGER AFRICAN GROUPS SUCH AS NIGERIA AND SOUTH AFRICA REMAIN UNCERTAIN. ¶2. (C) THE EMBASSY'S OWN MODEST IN-HOUSE EFFORT HAS BEEN AS OBJECTIVE AS POSSIBLE IN COVERAGE. WE EXPECT THAT ALL OF THE CREDIBLE REPORTS THAT EMERGE IN THE WAKE OF THE ELECTIONS WILL ADEQUATELY DOCUMENT INSTANCES OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00620 01 OF 05 081222Z INTIMIDATION, VIOLENCE, AND ELECTORAL CHICANERY. THE STATEMENT BY THE USG ON THE OUTCOME WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY SUPPORTED BY FACT THAT WE CAN FEEL CONFIDENT THAT OUR STATEMENT WILL NOT BE UNDERCUT BY WHITEWASHING OR LACK OF DETAIL IN REPORTS FROM OTHER, LESS RELIABLE DELEGATIONS. END SUMMARY. THE EARLY CASUALTIES -------------- ¶3. (C) THE GOZ HAS PURSUED A DUAL STRATEGY OF BLOCKAGE AND "DIVIDE AND CONQUER" IN ITS EFFORTS TO KEEP POTENTIALLY UNSYMPATHETIC ELECTION OBSERVATION MISSIONS OUT OF THE FRAY. THE FIRST CASUALTY WAS THE INTERNATIONAL FOUNDATION FOR ELECTION SYSTEMS (IFES), WHICH WAS UNCEREMONIOUSLY EXPELLED LAST SEPTEMBER IN THE MIDDLE OF ITS ASSESSMENT MISSION. SUBSEQUENT CAT-AND- MOUSING WITH THE ZIMBABWEAN EMBASSY IN WASHINGTON LED NOWHERE. ¶4. (C) THE EU AND ITS PROPOSED 150-STRONG TEAM OF 
OBSERVERS WERE NEXT. THE GOZ SOUGHT TO CREATE A NORDIC/MEDITERRANEAN RIFT (AND SUCCEEDED TO SOME DEGREE) BY ALLOWING ONLY NINE MEMBER STATES TO SEND BILATERAL REPRESENTATIVES UNDER THE TITULAR AUTHORITY OF THE ACP. WHEN THE EU ACQUIESCED TO SOME DEGREE AND SOUGHT A COMPROMISE SOLUTION, THE GOZ RESPONDED BY EXPELLING EU MISSION HEAD PIERRE SCHORRI. THE REMAINDER OF THE DELEGATION SUBSEQUENTLY WITHDREW, AND THE EU MISSIONS LOCATED HERE, IN A FINAL IRONIC GESTURE OF SOLIDARITY, AGREED THAT NONE OF THEIR NUMBER WOULD SEEK ACCREDITATION TO OBSERVE. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00620 01 OF 05 081222Z ¶5. (C) THE NEXT VICTIM WAS ZESN, WHICH HAD TRAINED AND LOCATED FUNDING FOR THE DEPLOYMENT OF 14,000 LOCAL MONITORS, THE SINGLE MOST EFFECTIVE FORCE IN PROVIDING NATIONWIDE COVERAGE. THE GOZ DID NOT SO MUCH MOVE THE GOAL POST ON THIS ATTEMPT AS CHOP IT DOWN. AFTER ACCREDITING A HANDFUL OF SYMPATHETIC "OBSERVERS," INCLUDING WAR VETS, THE ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION AGREED TWO DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTIONS TO ACCREDIT A TOTAL OF 420 ZESN OBSERVERS, ONE OBSERVER PER EACH TEN POLLING STATIONS. ¶6. (C) LAST DITCH ATTEMPTS TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE JUSTICE MINISTER ENDED WITH HIS NO-SHOW AT A FINAL SCHEDULED SESSION. ZESN IS CONSIDERING DEPLOYING OBSERVERS WITHOUT CREDENTIALS TO OBSERVE EVENTS FROM 100 METERS DISTANT FROM THE POLLING STATION, AS PRESCRIBED BY THE ELECTORAL LAW. WHILE SYMBOLIC, SUCH DEPLOYMENT HAS LITTLE REAL VALUE. AND, ADDING INSULT TO INJURY, THERE ARE REPORTS FROM NIGERIA OBSERVERS THAT THEY HAVE RUN ACROSS ACCREDITED ZANU-PF OBSERVERS ALREADY DEPLOYED CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5969 PAGE 01 HARARE 00620 02 OF 05 081222Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SSO-00 SS-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 IIP-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W -------------- 716EB2 081223Z /38 O 081214Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1141 INFO OAU COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY ABUJA AMEMBASSY ACCRA AMEMBASSY TOKYO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY OSLO NSC WASHDC AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 HARARE 000620 SIPDIS FOR AF, PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR AF/S NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER CAPETOWN PLEASE PASS A/S KANSTEINER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/03 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00620 02 OF 05 081222Z TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PHUM ZI SUBJECT: OUR TAKE ON ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORTS IN ZIMBABWE TO THE FIELD. WHAT'S LEFT -------------- ¶7. (C) BY MAINTAINING FOREIGN MINISTRY CONTROL OVER WHAT ORGANIZATIONS/COUNTRIES WERE INVITED, THE GOZ HAS MANAGED TO BRING IN SEVERAL HUNDRED MONITORS FROM TWO DOZEN DIFFERENT POINTS. THE GOZ'S INSISTENCE THAT UNDP SHOULD NOT PLAY A COORDINATING ROLE HAS ENSURED THAT THERE WOULD BE NO CENTRAL COORDINATION, ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN AD HOC COORDINATION AMONG THE MORE SERIOUS GROUPS. DELAYS WITH INVITATIONS AND A CUMBERSOME CREDENTIALING PROCEDURE HAVE FURTHER SLOWED THE ARRIVAL AND DEPLOYMENT OF OBSERVERS TO THE FIELD. LATECOMERS, MANY OF THEM WITH QUESTIONABLE OBSERVER CREDENTIALS, HAVE ARRIVED TOO LATE TO ENGAGE IN MUCH MORE THAN ELECTORAL TOURISM. WE HAVE ALSO OBSERVED THAT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE POLLS ARE SLATED TO OPEN, THE LUXURY HOTELS OF HARARE REMAIN CRAMMED WITH UNDEPLOYED INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS OF VARIOUS STRIPE. ¶8. (C) THE VAST MAJORITY OF INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS ARE AFRICAN, AN INTEGRAL PART OF MUGABE'S STRATEGY TO PORTRAY THE CENTRAL ELECTORAL ISSUE AS WHITE COLONIALIST LAND HOLDERS VERSUS INDIGENOUS BLACK AFRICAN PEASANTS SEEKING TO REGAIN THEIR AFRICAN BIRTHRIGHT. MUGABE HAS SOUGHT TO DIVIDE AND CONQUER ON ANOTHER LEVEL BY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00620 02 OF 05 081222Z PORTRAYING WESTERN CRITICISM OF ELECTORAL VIOLENCE AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RULE OF LAW AS A MANIFESTATION OF SUPPORT BY WHITES FOR WHITES. THIS HAS RESONATED TO SOME DEGREE WITHIN AFRICA. TO DATE, MOST COUNTRIES AND AFRICAN MULTILATERAL GROUPS HAVE PUBLICLY TAKEN A SOFT LINE. THE GOZ ALSO MANAGED TO DRIVE A WEDGE INTO CHOGM, WITH AFRICAN AND WESTERN STATES DIVIDED AND FORCED INTO A COMPROMISE TO ACT AFTER THE ELECTIONS. ¶9. (C) THERE WILL BE AS MANY POINTS OF VIEW AS THERE ARE GROUPS IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE VOTE. SEVERAL OF THE SADC STATE DELEGATIONS WILL SERVE AS APOLOGISTS FOR THE ZANU-PF VICTORY THAT THEY CLEARLY FAVOR. OTHERS, SUCH AS THE NORWEGIANS, WILL HEW TO A HARDER, MORE OBJECTIVE LINE. IN BETWEEN REMAIN THE OTHERS, MANY OF WHICH HAVE NOT GIVEN A CLEAR INDICATION OF WHERE THEY WILL COME DOWN. OUR PREDICTIONS, ADMITTEDLY INTUITIVE, FOLLOW. SOUTH AFRICA OBSERVATION MISSION (SAOM)_ -------------- ¶10. (C) THE LARGEST OBSERVER MISSION BY FAR, SAOM IS HARD TO SUM UP DUE TO ITS DISPARATE NATURE. UNIONISTS, ANC REPRESENTATIVES, OPPOSITION FIGURES, AND PARLIAMENTARIANS ALL FIGURE INTO THIS. SEVERAL CHURCH AND CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS WERE REFUSED CREDENTIALS AND FORCED TO RETURN TO SOUTH AFRICA, IN YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF GOZ DIVIDE AND CONQUER. SOME SOUTH AFRICAN DELEGATES HAVE TAKEN A HARD LINE WITH US IN PRIVATE ON ZANU-PF. OTHERS HAVE EVINCED PUBLIC SYMPATHY TOWARD MUGABE AND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00620 02 OF 05 081222Z SUGGESTED THAT IT IS THE DUTY OF THE OPPOSITION MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) TO ACCEPT WHATEVER OUTCOME IS ANNOUNCED, NO MATTER HOW TILTED THE ELECTION FIELD MIGHT HAVE BEEN. ¶11. (C) WE UNDERSTAND THAT THE SAOM HEAD RETURNED HOME FOR GUIDANCE ON HOW TO DEAL WITH THE WIDELY DIVERGENT VIEWS OF HIS GROUP; HE WAS SENT BACK WITH THE INSTRUCTION TO FIND A CONSENSUS. A FURTHER COMPLICATION IS THE HEAVY PRESENCE OF SOUTH AFRICAN REPRESENTATIVES ON THE SADC-PF, COMMONWEALTH, AND OAU DELEGATIONS. GIVEN THIS COMPLEX LINE-UP, IT IS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WHERE THE SOUTH AFRICANS WILL COME OUT, EITHER BY GROUP OR COLLECTIVELY. HOWEVER, BASED ON STATEMENTS QUESTIONING THE MDC'S ABILITY TO GOVERN ZIMBABWE, WE DO NOT EXPECT THE SOUTH AFRICANS TO TAKE A HARD-LINE IF ZANU-PF IS ANNOUNCED THE VICTOR, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CRITICIZE VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION, AND PROCEDURAL FLAWS. NIGERIA CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5970 PAGE 01 HARARE 00620 03 OF 05 081223Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SSO-00 SS-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 IIP-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W -------------- 716EBF 081223Z /38 O 081214Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1142 INFO OAU COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY ABUJA AMEMBASSY ACCRA AMEMBASSY TOKYO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY OSLO NSC WASHDC AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 HARARE 000620 SIPDIS FOR AF, PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR AF/S NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER CAPETOWN PLEASE PASS A/S KANSTEINER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/03 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00620 03 OF 05 081223Z TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PHUM ZI SUBJECT: OUR TAKE ON ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORTS IN ZIMBABWE -------------- ¶12. (C) CHIEF ERNEST SHONEKAN LED APPROXIMATELY 20 NIGERIAN OBSERVERS TO THE FIELD LESS THAN A WEEK BEFORE THE ELECTION WAS TO TAKE PLACE. THEY HAVE DEPLOYED TO THE FIELD AND HAVE WITNESSED SOME OF THE VIOLENCE AND PROCEDURAL IRREGULARITIES FIRST-HAND, ACCORDING TO REPORTS FROM ACCOMPANYING NIGERIAN DIPLOMATS. NIGERIA IS ALSO WELL REPRESENTED ON THE COMMONWEALTH DELEGATION. THE AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH SHONEKAN WAS NOT PARTICULARLY REASSURING (SEPTEL),AND WE CANNOT AT THIS JUNCTURE TELL WHERE THE NIGERIANS WILL COME OUT ON THE COMPORTMENT OF THE ELECTIONS, BUT IT IS LIKELY TO REPRESENT A NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT DECISION OF WHAT POSTURE TO TAKE. PRESIDENT OBASANJO'S PRESENCE ON THE THREE- PERSON COMMONWEALTH REVIEW PANEL WILL ENSURE THAT WHATEVER THE OUTCOME, THE NIGERIANS WILL REMAIN CLOSELY ENGAGED. COMMONWEALTH -------------- ¶13. (C) THE COMMONWEALTH HAS MARSHALED THE LARGEST MULTILATERAL MISSION, ABOUT 100 STRONG. THEY WERE THE FIRST INTO THE FIELD AND HAVE THE STRONGEST ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE. THE MISSION LEADER, ABDULSALAMI ABUBAKAR HAS MADE AT LEAST ONE REGRETTABLE PUBLIC COMMENT IN WHICH HE IMPLIED THAT JOURNALISTS WERE EXAGGERATING THE AMOUNT OF ELECTORAL VIOLENCE. THE GOZ CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00620 03 OF 05 081223Z RAN THIS STATEMENT THROUGH ITS PROPAGANDA MILL, PROMPTING A STIFF COMMONWEALTH COMMUNIQUE COMPLAINING THAT ABUBAKAR HAD BEEN TAKEN OUR OF CONTEXT. THE PRESENCE OF AUSTRALIANS, NEW ZEALANDERS, AND REPRESENTATIVES OF CARIBBEAN STATES WILL PROBABLY PREVENT ABUBAKAR FROM GLOSSING OVER THE PROBLEMS OF THE ELECTION, WHATEVER HIS PERSONAL INCLINATION MIGHT BE. AU/OAU -------------- ¶14. (C) THERE ARE RELIABLE REPORTS THAT THE AU DELEGATION HEAD HAD ATTEMPTED TO BROKER A COMMON, PRO- MUGABE STATEMENT FOR THE POST-ELECTION PERIOD, AN EFFORT THAT HAS THUS FAR NOT TAKEN ROOT. GIVING THE HEAD OF DELEGATION'S SIMPERING STATEMENTS FOLLOWING A MEETING WITH MUGABE, BROADCAST ON THE NEWS THAT PAST TWO NIGHTS, WE HAVE VERY LOW EXPECTATIONS. THERE ARE REPORTEDLY FOURTEEN NATIONALITIES REPRESENTED IN THE GROUP COMESA -------------- ¶15. (U) A SMALL GROUP LED BY DR. SITELE MWALE WILL BE HERE ON ELECTION DAY. WE HAVE NO FURTHER INFORMATION, INCLUDING WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL DELIVER A POST-ELECTION STATEMENT, ALTHOUGH MWALE TOLD US EARLIER THAT HE DID NOT EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN IF COMESA DID COME. SADC-PF -------------- ¶16. (C) WE HAVE BEEN VERY PLEASED WITH THE 50 PLUS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00620 03 OF 05 081223Z SADC-PF OBSERVERS, WHO HAVE EMPLOYED IN 19 TEAMS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. MISSION LEADER DUKE LEFHOKO FROM BOTSWANA HAS BEEN THE MOST OUTSPOKEN OF THE AFRICANS, CRITICIZING THE "STATE OF FEAR" THROUGHOUT ZIMBABWE AND NOT PULLING HIS PUNCHES IN PRESS INTERVIEWS. NAMIBIAN OPPOSITION MP NORA SCHIMMING-CHASE HAS ALSO BEEN A FORCE TO RECKON WITH. TWO NDI STAFFERS WHO VISITED EARLIER THIS WEEK EXPRESSED THEIR SATISFACTION WITH SADC-PF'S PERFORMANCE TO DATE AND SAID THAT THEY EXPECT THE FINAL REPORT TO BE HONEST, ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT CONFRONTATIONAL. SADC SYG MUTUKWA, WHO IS INTERESTED IN A SECOND TERM, HAS BEEN WALKING A TIGHTROPE BETWEEN HIS SADC COUNTERPARTS AND THE WESTERN SOURCES OF FUNDING. WE THINK THAT HE HAS DONE A VERY GOOD JOB TO DATE AT COORDINATING WITH THE OTHER MOST CREDIBLE OBSERVER MISSIONS. SADC MINISTERIAL -------------- ¶17. (U) NO-SHOWS SO FAR. IF THEY DO ARRIVE, WE EXPECT NOTHING MEANINGFUL FROM THEM, ON THE BASIS OF PAST CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTO3192 PAGE 01 HARARE 00620 04 OF 05 081223Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SSO-00 SS-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 IIP-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W -------------- 716ECD 081223Z /38 O 081214Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1143 INFO OAU COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY ABUJA AMEMBASSY ACCRA AMEMBASSY TOKYO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY OSLO NSC WASHDC AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 HARARE 000620 SIPDIS FOR AF, PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR AF/S NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER CAPETOWN PLEASE PASS A/S KANSTEINER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/03 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00620 04 OF 05 081223Z TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PHUM ZI SUBJECT: OUR TAKE ON ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORTS IN ZIMBABWE PERFORMANCE NORWAY -------------- ¶18. (C) THE NORWEGIANS HAVE DEPLOYED TEN WELL-QUALIFIED TEAMS UNDER THE SUPERVISION OF AN EXTREMELY EXPERIENCED ELECTION EXPERT. THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE THICK OF THINGS, INCLUDING VISITS TO VILLAGES BURNED OUT BY PRO-ZANU-PF MILITIAS AND HOSPITALS LODGING THE VICTIMS OF ELECTORAL VIOLENCE. THEY ARE CAREFULLY DOCUMENTING THEIR FINDINGS AND HAVE AGREED COORDINATE CLOSELY WITH US. THIS IS A FIRST-RATE EFFORT; WE ARE SURPRISED THAT SOMEHOW THEY MANAGED TO CADGE AN INVITATION, WHICH WAS PROBABLY THE OUTCOME OF A "DIVIDE AND RULE" MOVE AGAINST THE EUROPEANS/NORDICS THAT BACKFIRED. TANZANIA, NAMIBIA AND THE WHITEWASH BRIGADE -------------- ¶19. (C) A NUMBER OF SADC BILATERAL DELEGATIONS APPEAR READY TO ACCEPT A MUGABE VICTORY AND FACE VALUE, AND A SUBSEQUENT THUMBS-UP FOR THE PROCESS. NAMIBIAN TEAM LEADER MBUENDE, WHO AS FAR AS WE KNOW HAS NOT STRAYED FAR FROM HIS HOTEL, HAD ALREADY BEEN QUOTED IN GOZ PAPERS AS SAYING THAT REPORTS OF VIOLENCE ARE EXAGGERATED, AND BOTH SIDES EQUALLY RESPONSIBLE. THE MALAWAIAN DELEGATION MAY FIT IN THE SAME MOLD, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00620 04 OF 05 081223Z WE HAVE HEARD THAT A GOM ATTEMPT TO REPLACE CIVIL SOCIETY REPRESENTATIVES WITH JOURNALISTS FROM GOVERNMENT MEDIA WAS THWARTED BY THE NORWEGIANS, WHO THREATENED TO PULL THE PLUG ON THE FUNDING. OBSERVERS FROM GHANA AND OTHER SMALLER BILATERAL GROUPS HAVE SEEN THE MEDIA DISTORTION AND PROCEDURAL PROBLEMS FIRST-HAND BUT THUS FAR HAVE KEPT THEIR PEACE ON THE ISSUE. WE CANNOT PREDICT WHERE THEY WILL COME OUT. OTHERS -------------- ¶20. (SBU) A NUMBER OF OTHER, SMALLER GROUPS PRESENT ON THE GROUND WILL HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON WHAT OCCURS, LARGELY BECAUSE THEY ARE FEW IN NUMBER, LATE TO ARRIVE, AND BEREFT OF ADMINISTRATIVE REPORT. THE EMBASSY HAS MET WITH AND OFFERED TO ASSIST THE FIVE-PERSON DELEGATION FROM THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF COLORED PEOPLE (NAACP). THE TEAM LEADER TOLD US THAT THEY DO NOT EXPECT TO SUBMIT A PUBLIC REPORT, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL REPORT BACK TO THE NAACP BOARD OF DIRECTORS. WE ARE CONVINCED THAT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF OTHER GROUPS PRESENT OF WHICH WE REMAIN UNAWARE. U.S. EMBASSY OBSERVERS -------------- ¶21. (C) NINE TEAMS OF EMBASSY OBSERVERS HAVE BEEN SCOURING THE COUNTRYSIDE TO ASSESS PRE-ELECTION CONDITIONS FOR THE PAST THREE WEEKS. THEY ARE NOW DEPLOYING BACK TO THE FIELD FOR OBSERVATION DURING THE VOTING PROCESS. THUS FAR, OUR TEAMS HAVE SPENT NEARLY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00620 04 OF 05 081223Z 300 PERSON-DAYS IN THE FIELD COVERING 23,000 MILES DURING WHICH THEY HAVE INTERVIEWED OVER 1,000 PEOPLE. OUR METHODOLOGY WAS TO SET AN ITINERARY AND MEET REPRESENTATIVES OF ALL STAKEHOLDERS AND TO AVOID BEING DIRECTED BY ANY ONE PARTY, TO MAINTAIN NEUTRALITY OF VIEW AND FINDINGS. ¶22. (C) THE LIST OF CONTACTS INCLUDE LAWYERS, NGO/SOS, POLICE, INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS, GOVERNORS AND DISTRICT ADMINISTRATORS, APPOINTED AND ELECTED LOCAL OFFICIALS, TRADITIONAL LEADERS, COMMERCIAL FARMERS, BUSINESSMEN OF VARIOUS DESCRIPTION, DOCTORS, LOCAL ELECTION OFFICIALS, POLITICAL PARTY REPRESENTATIVES, OTHER OBSERVERS, WAR VETS AND YOUTH MILITIA, AND THEIR VICTIMS. OUR TEAMS HAVE BEEN STOPPED AT ROADBLOCKS, MENACED ON A FEW OCCASIONS, AND GIVEN SEATS OF HONOR AT ZANU-PF RALLIES ON OTHERS. THEY HAVE ON ONE OCCASION DELIVERED FIRST AID TREATMENT TO A VICTIM OF VIOLENCE. WE HAVE CONFIRMED REPORTS THAT SEVERAL OF THEIR CONTACTS, INCLUDING FOREIGN MISSIONARIES HAVE BEEN VISITED AND ABDUCTED/ASSAULTED BY ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS AFTER THE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTO3193 PAGE 01 HARARE 00620 05 OF 05 081224Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SSO-00 SS-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 IIP-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W -------------- 716ED4 081224Z /38 O 081214Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1144 INFO OAU COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY ABUJA AMEMBASSY ACCRA AMEMBASSY TOKYO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY OSLO NSC WASHDC AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 HARARE 000620 SIPDIS FOR AF, PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR AF/S NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER CAPETOWN PLEASE PASS A/S KANSTEINER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/03 CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00620 05 OF 05 081224Z TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PHUM ZI SUBJECT: OUR TAKE ON ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORTS IN ZIMBABWE MEETINGS. WE BELIEVE THAT THE SUM TOTAL OF OUR EFFORTS HAS BEEN TO COMPILE A CREDIBLE OVERVIEW OF THE PRE- ELECTION ENVIRONMENT. WE WILL REPORT OUR CONCLUSIONS SEPTEL. COMMENT -------------- ¶23. (C) IT IS OUR CONCLUSION THAT DUE TO GOZ SHENANIGANS, THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE PRE-ELECTION ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN INADEQUATE. ONLY FOUR OF THE GROUPS INVOLVED -- COMMONWEALTH, SAOM, US, AND SADC-PF -- HAVE GOTTEN ENOUGH PEOPLE INTO THE FIELD FOR A SUFFICIENT TIME TO BE ABLE TO DRAW ACCURATE CONCLUSIONS, IF THESE GROUPS SO CHOOSE. ELECTION DAY WILL BE EQUALLY HIT AND MISS LARGELY DUE TO THE BLOCKAGE OF THE ZESN DOMESTIC OBSERVERS. THE GOZ MAY HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN OBSCURING TO SOME DEGREE WHAT THEY HAVE DONE IN THE LEAD-UP TO THE ELECTION, AND PROBABLY ON ELECTION DAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, IN THE PROCESS THEY HAVE ALSO OPENED THEMSELVES TO POST-ELECTION ACCUSATIONS THAT NEITHER THE PRE-ELECTION ENVIRONMENT NOR ELECTION DAY ACTIVITIES ADD UP TO A VOTE, AND AN ANNOUNCED RESULT, THAT CAN BE JUDGED AS FREE AND FAIR. WE BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DOCUMENTARY EVIDENCE ON HAND TO OUTWEIGH ANY EFFORTS BY LESS RELIABLE OBSERVER MISSIONS TO WHITEWASH THE OUTCOME. IN OUR VIEW, THE GOZ AND ZANU-PF HAVE CREATED A LOSE/LOSE SCENARIO FOR THEMSELVES CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00620 05 OF 05 081224Z IN THE COURT OF WORLD OPINION . SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >