ZIMBABWE: ZVOBGO PREDICTS MUGABE WILL LOSE THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000061 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY PARIS FOR CHARLES NEARY NAIROBI FOR TERRY PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/12 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE: ZVOBGO PREDICTS MUGABE WILL LOSE THE ELECTION REF: '01 HARARE 3813 CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TODD FAULK FOR REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) IN A DECEMBER 20 LUNCH WITH AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN AND POLOFF, ZANU-PF MP AND MASVINGO "SUPREMO" EDDISON ZVOBGO RUMINATED ON REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION BEFORE PARLIAMENT (REPORTED REFTEL),MASVINGO POLITICS, AND THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. ZVOBGO HAD FEW KIND WORDS FOR HIS OLD BROTHER-IN-ARMS MUGABE, SAYING THE AGING PRESIDENT DOES NOT LISTEN TO HIM OR ANYONE ELSE ANYMORE. ZVOBGO STATED THAT MUGABE IS BECOMING MORE UNPOPULAR ALL THE TIME AND WOULD LOSE THE MARCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. "HOW DO YOU CONVINCE VOTERS TO VOTE FOR YOU BY BEATING THEM UP?" HE ASKED RHETORICALLY. ¶2. (C) ZVOBGO INTIMATED THAT ONE OF THE KEY AREAS MUGABE WOULD LOSE WOULD BE MASVINGO PROVINCE. HE HINTED THAT HE AND HIS SUPPORTERS WOULD NOT BE CAMPAIGNING FOR THE PRESIDENT. HOWEVER, HE DENIED THAT ZANU-PF SPLITS IN MASVINGO WOULD COST MUGABE THE ELECTION, OBJECTING TO THE IDEA THAT "FACTIONALISM" IS A PROBLEM IN THE PROVINCE. ZVOBGO DID NOTE THAT VIRTUALLY NO KARANGANS (THE SHONA SUBGROUP THAT DOMINATES MASVINGO) WERE IN CABINET OR PERMANENT SECRETARY POSITIONS, A FACT THAT WILL HURT MUGABE IN THE ELECTION. "MUGABE WILL LOSE THE ELECTION ON HIS OWN," THE MP PREDICTED. ¶3. (U) BELYING ZVOBGO'S CLAIMS, THE JANUARY 3 EDITION OF THE GOVERNMENT-SUPPORTED "ZIMBABWE MIRROR" REPORTED THAT THE ZVOBGO FACTION (BACKED BY OUSTED GOVERNOR CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00061 081040Z DZIKAMAI MAVHAIRE AND THE PROVINCIAL WAR VETERANS ASSOCIATION) RECENTLY SENT A LETTER TO PRESIDENT MUGABE IMPLORING HIM TO RESOLVE THE ZANU-PF SPLITS IN MASVINGO. THE LETTER REPORTEDLY DEMANDED THAT MUGABE REMOVE THE PROVINCIAL EXECUTIVE INSTALLED LAST YEAR AND HEADED BY HIGHER EDUCATION MINISTER SAMUEL MUMBENGEGWI AND CURRENT GOVERNOR JOSIAH HUNGWE (AND BACKED BY VICE-PRESIDENT SIMON MUZENDA),OR FACE LOSING THE ELECTION. THE ARTICLE REPORTED THAT THE ZANU-PF TOP BRASS WAS DIVIDED OVER HOW TO HANDLE THE ZVOBGO DEMAND. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: AS ZIMBABWE'S MOST POPULOUS PROVINCE, AND ONE NEARLY EVENLY DIVIDED IN SUPPORT FOR THE MDC AND ZANU-PF, MASVINGO WILL BE CRUCIAL TO MUGABE'S CHANCES FOR RE-ELECTION. IF MUGABE CANNOT PLACATE ZVOBGO, WHO REMAINS POPULAR IN THE PROVINCE, AND GET HIS BACKING IN THE ELECTION, THE PRESIDENT RISKS LOSING A LARGE BLOCK OF VOTES. THE FACTIONAL SPLITS THAT HAVE WRACKED ZANU- PF IN MASVINGO FOR YEARS ARE PROBABLY NOT AS GREAT A FACTOR FOR MUGABE AS THE PRESS WOULD SUGGEST BECAUSE THE EXECUTIVE INSTALLED BY MUGABE AND MUZENDA HAS LITTLE PUBLIC SUPPORT. THE KEY WILL BE CONVINCING ZVOBGO AND HIS CADRES TO BACK THE PRESIDENT, AND THAT APPEARS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS IT WOULD REQUIRE A HUMILIATING ABOUT-FACE BY MUGABE. END COMMENT. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >