MARCH 7 MEETING WITH NIGERIAN ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000618 SIPDIS FOR AF/FO AND AF/S NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZER ABUJA FOR AMBASSADOR JETER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI NI SUBJECT: MARCH 7 MEETING WITH NIGERIAN ELECTION DELEGATION CLASSIFIED BY JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5B/D ¶1. (C) THE AMBASSADOR MET MARCH 8 WITH THE HEAD OF THE NIGERIAN ELECTION OBSERVER DELEGATION CHIEF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00618 081132Z SHONEKAN, THE NIGERIAN ELECTION COMMISSION REPRESENTATIVE AND HIGH COMMISSIONER JUTA. SHONEKAN HAD EARLIER BEEN PRESIDENT OBASSANJO'S SPECIAL EMISSARY TO ZIMBABWE FOR THE ABUJA PROCESS AND ACCOMPANIED OBASSANJO ON HIS LATE JANUARY VISIT TO ZIMBABWE TO MEET WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE AND MDC LEADER TSVANGIRAI. SHONEKAN, WHO SAID HE WAS SURPRISED THAT OBASSANJO HAD SELECTED HIM FOR THIS ELECTION MISSION, PUT HIS EMPHASIS ON THE NEED FOR ZIMBABWE'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY UNDER WHICHEVER CANDIDATE WAS ELECTED. HE RELATED THE COMMITMENTS TO END VIOLENCE AND RUN A FAIR ELECTION MADE BY PRESIDENT MUGABE DURING HIS JANUARY VISIT. BUT, SHONEKAN NOT SEEM TO DRAW THE APPROPRIATE CONCLUSIONS ABOUT MUGABE'S LACK OF GOOD FAITH WHEN THE AMBASSADOR OUTLINED THE GOVERNMENT-ORGANIZED CAMPAIGN OF TARGETED VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION WHICH WAS CONTINUING AND THE PROCEDURAL MANIPULATIONS AT WORK. SHONEKAN WAS PLEASED WITH HIS MEETING WITH MDC LEADER TSVANGIRAI, AND PARTICULARLY HIS WILLINGNESS TO FORM A NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT, BUT WAS NOT DISTRESSED ABOUT THE ABSENCE OF INDICATIONS OF CONCILIATORY SIGNALS FROM ZANU-PF. 2.(C) THE NIGERIAN ELECTION COMMISSIONER (WE DID NOT GET HIS NAME.) AND THE NIGERIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER WERE MORE ENGAGED. THEY EXPRESSED PARTICULAR DISTRESS ABOUT THE REPORT THAT TENS OF THOUSANDS OF ARMED FORCES MEMBERS HAD VOTED ABSENTEE. THE ELECTION REGISTRAR HAD CONFIRMED TO THEM THAT THIS WAS SO, BUT SAID HE DID NOT KNOW UNDER WHAT CIRCUMSTANCES THEY HAD VOTED. THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00618 081132Z AMBASSADOR CONFIRMED THAT OUR INFORMATION SHOWED THAT THEY HAD VOTED UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF THEIR COMMANDING OFFICER. THE ELECTION COMMISSIONER EXPRESSED CONCERN OVER THE LAST-MINUTE CHANGES IN ELECTION PROCEDURES AND THE HIGH COMMISSIONER EXPRESSED CONCERN WHEN HE RECEIVED A CALL FROM HIS ELECTION OBSERVERS IN MUTARE REPORTING THAT ZANU-PF ACTIVISTS HAD BEEN GIVEN ELECTION OBSERVER BADGES IDENTICAL TO THOSE OF HIS DELEGATION. ¶3. (C) CHIEF SHONEKAN'S LACK OF ENGAGEMENT IN THE KEY ELECTION ISSUES WAS NOTABLE AND WE HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHAT RECOMMENDATIONS HE WILL MAKE TO PRESIDENT OBASSANJO FOLLOWING THE ELECTIONS. HE EVEN SEEMED TO SHRUG OFF OUR COMMENT THAT PRESIDENTS OBASSANJO AND MBEKI HAD THE GREATEST CAPACITY TO CONVINCE PRESIDENT MUGABE TO ACCEPT A PEACEFUL DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION. HC JUTA, ON THE OTHER HAND, WAS MORE ENGAGED THAN WE HAVE EVER SEEN HIM AND HE MADE A POINT OF SUGGESTING THAT WE BE IN CONTACT ON MONDAY TO COMPARE NOTES. WE KNOW THAT JUTA WAS RECENTLY CALLED HOME TO RECOMMEND HOW PRESIDENT OBASSANJO COULD BE HELPFUL AND HE SEEMS TO BE TAKING THE RESPONSIBILITY SERIOUSLY. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >