DESPITE BEHIND THE SCENES SCHEMES, A PAN-

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000611 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, DAS BELLAMY; AND AF/S CAPETOWN FOR A/S KANSTEINER NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/07 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREL ZI SUBJECT: DESPITE BEHIND THE SCENES SCHEMES, A PAN- AFRICAN ELECTION WHITEWASH UNLIKELY REF: A) HARARE 591 B) HARARE 603 CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) WE HAVE PICKED UP A NUMBER OF REPORTS THAT THERE ARE MOVES AFOOT TO LINE UP AFRICAN ELECTION OBSERVATION DELEGATIONS TO AGREE TO A COMMON POST-ELECTORAL STATEMENT FAVORABLE TO ROBERT MUGABE. DEPUTY ELECTIONS SUPERVISION COMMISSIONER'S NYIKAYARAMBA INVITATION TO AFRICAN CHIEFS OF MISSION AND THE HEAD OF AFRICAN ELECTION OBSERVATION DELEGATIONS TO A FOLLOW-UP MEETING TO THE ESC PRE-ELECTION BRIEFING (REFTELS) TURNED OUT TO BE AN INVITATION TO MEET WITH MDC LEADERSHIP, INCLUDING MORGAN TSVANGIRAI. ¶2. (C) REPORTS ON THE MEETING FROM CONTACTS WITHIN THE AFRICAN DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY REVEAL THAT THERE ARE TWO UNDERLYING CONCERNS AMONG MANY AFRICAN DELEGATES. FIRST, THERE IS WIDESPREAD ACCEPTANCE OF THE ZANU-PF CREDO THAT THE LAND ISSUE -- NOT THE RULE OF LAW OR THE PRINCIPLE OF POPULAR SOVEREIGN WILL -- LIES AT THE HEART OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN. SECONDLY, THERE IS A FEELING THAT THE MDC MAY NOT BE QUALIFIED TO TAKE UP THE REINS OF POWER, REGARDLESS OF THE POLITICAL HANKERINGS OF THE ZIMBABWEAN PEOPLE. ¶3. (C) DUKE LEFHOKO, HEAD OF THE SADC-PF DELEGATION AND THUS FAR THE STRAIGHTEST SHOOTER OF THE AFRICAN MISSION CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00611 01 OF 02 071508Z HEADS, REPORTEDLY WARNED MDC BEFORE THE MEETING NOT TO AGREE TO ANY CONDITIONS OFFERED BY THE AFRICAN GROUP. IN FACT, THERE WAS REPORTEDLY A SUBSEQUENT ATTEMPT BY CERTAIN DELEGATES TO GET TSVANGIRAI TO STATE THAT HE WOULD ACCEPT THE ANNOUNCED OUTCOME, WHATEVER THIS MIGHT BE, A POSITION THAT TSVANGIRAI WOULD NOT ACCEPT. TWO ANC MEMBERS OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN DELEGATION PRESSED TSVANGIRAI ON EXACTLY THE SAME POINT DURING A PUBLIC MDC SIPDIS BRIEFING EARLY LAST WEEK. ¶4. (C) THE NDI'S DENNIS KADEMA (PROTECT),WHO IS ADVISING THE SADC-PF DELEGATION, INFORMED DCM ON MARCH 7 THAT THE AU IS TAKING A VERY STRONG PRO-MUGABE STANCE. A WOMAN FROM THE AU DELEGATION MET WITH SADC-PF SYG MUTUKWA AND LEFHOKO EARLY THIS WEEK AND STRONGLY PRESSED THEM TO AGREE TO SIGNING ON TO A JOINT, ALL-AFRICAN POST ELECTORAL STATEMENT FAVORABLE TO MUGABE. THEY REFUSED, AND OTHER DELEGATIONS HAVE REPORTEDLY ALSO BALKED AT THE NOTION. ¶5. (C) AFRICAN CONCERNS ABOUT LAND AND THE MDC'S ABILITY TO GOVERN DO NOT APPEAR TO REFLECT AN ACCEPTANCE OF ZANU-PF'S SLASH AND BURN APPROACH TO ELECTIONEERING. THE NIGERIANS AND SOUTH AFRICANS HAVE BOTH TOLD US THAT ZANU-PF VIOLENCE AND BLATANT DISREGARD FOR THE RULES IS APPALLING. OTHER DELEGATIONS HAVE EXPRESSED SIMILAR SENTIMENTS. THREE DELEGATES FROM GHANA -- TWO MPS WHO FORMERLY WERE IN OPPOSITION AND A WELL QUALIFIED ELECTION COMMISSIONER -- DESCRIBED TO THE AMBASSADOR THEIR REPULSION AT THE WIDESPREAD VIOLENCE, PROCEDURAL WEAKNESSES, AND GOZ MEDIA DISTORTION. HOWEVER, THEY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00611 01 OF 02 071508Z INSISTED THAT THEY ARE BOUND BY THE TERMS OF THEIR INVITATION AND ARE UNABLE TO SPEAK OUT UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION IS DONE. ¶6. (C) COMMENT. WE DO NOT THINK THAT ATTEMPTS TO FORGE A PAN-AFRICAN, PRO-MUGABE POSITION WILL PREVAIL DESPITE QUESTIONS BY SOME DELEGATIONS ABOUT THE LAND ISSUE AND THE MDC'S CAPACITY TO GOVERN (WHICH, WE NOTE, SHOULD IN DEMOCRATIC TERMS BE THE BUSINESS OF THE ZIMBABWEANS AND NO ONE ELSE). AS NOTED IN EARLIER REPORTS, A NUMBER OF AFRICAN BILATERAL DELEGATIONS -- AND CLEARLY THE AU -- HAVE NOT COME HERE TO FIND FAULT WITH A MUGABE VICTORY, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE OBTAINED. HOWEVER, OUR CONVERSATIONS WITH MEMBERS OF OTHER AFRICAN DELEGATIONS, AND THE EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE OF SOME OF THEIR OBSERVERS IN THE FIELD AS REPORTED BY OUR OBSERVER TEAMS, LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT THERE WILL BE OTHER, MORE BALANCED VOICES. IN THE EVENT OF AN ANNOUNCED MUGABE VICTORY, THE FINAL PUBLIC POSITIONS OF THE NIGERIANS AND THE SOUTH AFRICANS WILL BE CRUCIAL TO WHETHER OR NOT THE AFRICANS AT LARGE RETREAT TO THE UNFORTUNATE "QUIET DIPLOMACY" OF AFRICAN SOLIDARITY THAT HAS TOO FREQUENTLY PREVAILED IN THE PAST. END COMMENT. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3075 PAGE 01 HARARE 00611 02 OF 02 071508Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 M-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /007W -------------- 70EFDC 071508Z /38 O 071500Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1128 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA AMEMBASSY OTTAWA EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN NSC WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000611 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, DAS BELLAMY; AND AF/S CAPETOWN FOR A/S KANSTEINER NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/07 TAGS: PGOV PREL PREL ZI CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00611 02 OF 02 071508Z SUBJECT: DESPITE BEHIND THE SCENES SCHEMES, A PAN- AFRICAN ELECTION WHITEWASH UNLIKELY SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >