ZIMBABWEAN ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE SETS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000591 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, A/S KANSTEINER AND PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR AF/S NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/04 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PREL KDEM ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWEAN ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE SETS THE STAGE FOR THE VOTE, ZANU-PF STYPE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00591 01 OF 02 061559Z CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. THE TWO TOP OFFICIALS OF ZIMBABWE'S ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION (ESC) BRIEFED INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS ON THE MORNING OF MARCH 6 ABOUT THE STATUS OF THE MARCH 9 AND 10 VOTE. IN A SURREAL NINETY-MINUTE SPEECH, THE RECENTLY APPOINTED NUMBER TWO OF THE ESC, A PRO-ZANU-PF BRIGADIER, PAINTED A ROSY PICTURE OF ELECTION READINESS AND DUCKED KEY QUESTIONS ABOUT THE LOCATION OF POLLING PLACES, WHAT LOCAL OBSERVERS WILL BE ACCREDITED, AND EXACTLY WHAT ELECTORAL RULES ARE IN FORCE. WITH LESS THAN SEVENTY- TWO HOURS BEFORE THE POLLS OPEN, THE GOZ STALL STRATEGY HAS EFFECTIVELY ENSURED THAT ELECTION-DAY DISORGANIZATION AND UNCERTAINTY WILL REIGN. END SUMMARY. ELECTION COMMISSIONER: "IT'S NOT OUR FAULT!" -------------- ¶2. (SBU) ESC COMMISSIONER GULA-NDEBELE KICKED OFF THE PRE-ELECTION BRIEFING WITH A SHORT SPEECH THAT STRESSED THAT THE ESC ONLY SUPERVISES ELECTIONS, AND THAT THE REGISTRAR GENERAL IS FULLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SMOOTH COMPORTMENT OF THE VOTE. WITH THIS HOT-POTATO IN THE AIR, GULA-NDEBELE MADE SOME VAGUE COMMENTS ABOUT HOW POLITICAL PARTIES CONTESTING THE ELECTION "PERCEIVE" -- HE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WAS NOT NECESSARILY SO -- THAT NGOS ARE PARTISAN. THIS HAD FORCED THE ESC TO SEARCH FOR NON-PARTISAN GROUPS TO ACT AS OBSERVERS. HE CONCLUDED THAT SINCE ALL THE POLITICAL PARTIES MISTRUST THE BONA FIDES OF CIVIL SERVANTS, THIS MAKES THEM THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00591 01 OF 02 061559Z LOGICAL CHOICE TO SERVE AS MONITORS. THE BRIGADIER DECLAIMS -------------- ¶3. (SBU) NEXT IN LINE WAS THE ESC DEPUTY COMMISSIONER NYIKAYARAMBA, AN ERSTWHILE ZDF BRIGADIER WHO RETIRED TWO MONTHS PAST TO ASSUME HIS PRESENT ROLE. THE BRIGADIER GOT OFF ON THE WRONG FOOT WITH SEVERAL DELEGATIONS BY ANNOUNCING THAT ALL AFRICAN CHIEFS OF MISSION AND THE HEADS OF OBSERVER GROUPS, AFRICAN ONLY, WERE INVITED TO A FOLLOW-ON SESSION IN AN ADJACENT MEETING HALL AS SOON AS THE CURRENT MEETING HAD ENDED. ¶4. (C) NYIKAYARAMBA PRAISED OBSERVERS AS THE "EYES AND EARS" OF THE ESC, AND THEN PROCEEDED TO EXPLAIN WHY THE ESC WILL BE LARGELY BLIND AND DEAF ON ELECTION DAY. HE STRESSED THAT THE CENTRAL ISSUE OF THE ELECTION WAS LAND INEQUITY AND THEN DESCRIBED AT LENGTH ELEVEN COMPETING PARTIES, INCLUDING SEVERAL OF WHICH WE WERE UNAWARE. THE BRIGADIER THEN MADE A NUMBER OF STATEMENTS THAT WE WOULD CHARACTERIZE AS INACCURATE, FOR WANT OF A BETTER WORD. TO WIT: -- THE TOTAL NUMBER OF POLLING STATIONS HAS EXPANDED FROM 3,904 FOR THE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS TO 4,548 IN 2002. NYIKAYARAMBA DID NOT ADDRESS WHY PRO-MDC (OPPOSITION) URBAN AREAS HAVE LOST LARGE NUMBERS OF POLLING STATIONS, ALTHOUGH AN ESCA HANDOUT DID STATE THAT PRO-ZANU-PF (MUGABE) RURAL AREAS HAVE RECEIVED ADDITIONAL STATIONS "TO SHORTEN WALKING DISTANCES." IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO CONFIRM THE ACTUAL NUMBERS, SINCE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00591 01 OF 02 061559Z THE ESC HAS NOT YET RELEASED THE OFFICIAL LIST OF POLLING STATIONS, ALTHOUGH -- TWO DAYS OUT -- NYIKAYARAMBA ASSURED THAT THIS IS IN THE WORKS. -- REQUESTING WILLING SUSPENSION OF DISBELIEF ON THE PART OF INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS, NYIKAYARAMBA STATED THAT THE ESC SHOULD BE VIEWED AS A FULLY INDEPENDENT ELECTORAL COMMISSION FULFILLING INTERNATIONAL NORMS. HE DID NOT ADDRESS THE NEED FOR PRESIDENTIAL CONFIRMATION OF THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS, HIS OWN RECENT APPOINTMENT, NOR THE UTTER LACK OF OPPOSITION REPRESENTATION. -- NYIKAYARAMBA STATED THAT THE ESC HAS ACCREDITED 566 INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS AND LISTED THESE BY GROUP AND NATIONALITY. HE TOOK SOME POETIC LICENSE IN THIS EXERCISE, CITING 45 JAPANESE OBSERVERS (THERE ARE FIVE), 29 U.S. (25),28 NIGERIAN (12),ETC. IN ADDITION, HE LISTED EU BILATERAL DIPLOMATS WHO HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO BE ACCREDITED, THE LOCAL EU COMMUNITY HAVING FINALLY MADE COMMON CAUSE WHEN EU OBSERVER MISSION HEAD PIERRE SCHORRI WAS EXPELLED AND THE EU DELEGATION FOLLOWED ON CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9491 PAGE 01 HARARE 00591 02 OF 02 061559Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 WHA-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EUR-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 M-00 NSAE-00 SSO-00 SS-00 EPAE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W -------------- 705F18 061559Z /38 O 061552Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1118 INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY AMEMBASSY OSLO PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000591 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF, A/S KANSTEINER AND PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR AF/S NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/04 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PREL KDEM ZI SUBJECT: ZIMBABWEAN ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE SETS THE STAGE FOR THE VOTE, ZANU-PF STYPE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00591 02 OF 02 061559Z HIS HEELS. -- NYIKAYARAMBA SAID THAT THE ESC HAS ALREADY SUCCEEDED IN ACCREDITING 23 LOCAL OBSERVERS, INCLUDING NINE PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH THE PRO-ZANU-PF RUMP TRADE UNION HEADED BY WAR VETERAN LEADER JOSEPH CHINOTIMBA. NONE OF THE 14,000 TRAINED ZIMBABWE ELECTION SUPPORT NETWORK FIGURED ON THIS LIST. IN RESPONSE TO A QUERY, NYIKAYARAMBA REPLIED THAT HE COULD ONLY ACCREDIT THOSE INVITED BY THE JUSTICE MINISTER, ANOTHER HOT POTATO IN THE AIR. (NOTE: IN THE TWO DAYS REMAINING, THE ESC'S TWO COMPUTERS DEDICATED TO PRODUCING CREDENTIAL BADGES ARE CAPABLE OF ISSUING 2,000 BADGES, USING THE OPTIMISTIC FIGURE OF ONE ISSUED PER MINUTE. IN A CLASSIC CATCH 22, THE ZESN FOLK MAY EITHER WAIT IN HARARE FOR CREDENTIALS, AND MISS THE ELECTIONS, OR DEPLOY TO THE PROVINCES WITHOUT CREDENTIALS NEEDED TO LET THEM OBSERVE EFFECTIVELY. END NOTE.) -- NYIKAYARAMBA GOT HIS BIGGEST TITTER WHEN HE ANNOUNCED THAT THE ESC DEPLORES POLITICALLY MOTIVATED VIOLENCE AND IS "CARRYING OUT INVESTIGATIONS OF ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE." -- NYIKAYARAMBA ANNOUNCED THAT ELECTION OBSERVERS MAY SEEK COPIES OF THE CONSTITUTION AND THE ELECTORAL ACT FROM THE OFFICE OF GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS. HE DID NOT REFER TO THE MARCH 1 GAZETTING OF THE AMENDED ELECTORAL ACT OF JANUARY 2002, WHICH WAS STRICKEN DOWN LAST WEEK BY THE SUPREME COURT, ONLY TO BE REINTRODUCED AND GAZETTED AS THE LAW IN FORCE BY PRESIDENTIAL DIRECTIVE. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00591 02 OF 02 061559Z -- THE BRIGADIER SAID THAT THERE HAD BEEN 5.4 MILLION REGISTERED VOTERS AT THE TIME OF THE DECEMBER 27 CUTOFF DATE. HOWEVER, IN A QUEST TO MAKE SURE THAT EVERY QUALIFIED ZIMBABWEAN WAS ABLE TO VOTE, REGISTRATION HAD BEEN REOPENED AND LATECOMERS WOULD BE ABLE TO VOTE FROM SUPPLEMENTAL LISTS. HE DID NOT COMMENT ON REPORTS THAT REGISTRATION HAS CONTINUED IN RURAL, TRADITIONALLY PRO- ZANU-PF AREAS BUT NOT IN THE MDC'S URBAN STRONGHOLDS. Q AND A SESSION -------------- ¶5. (C) AFTER DEMONSTRATING A MOCK-UP POLLING STATION AND HOW VOTING IS DONE IN ZIMBABWE, THE ESC FIELDED QUESTIONS. WHEN ASKED WHEN THEY WOULD PUBLISH THE LIST OF POLLING PLACES, THEY STATED THAT IT WOULD BE PRINTED IN THE NEWSPAPERS, ALTHOUGH THEY COULD NOT SAY EXACTLY WHEN. WHEN ASKED ABOUT WHEN LISTS OF DOMESTIC OBSERVERS WOULD BE RELEASED, THEY ADMITTED THAT THEY DID NOT KNOW, BUT WOULD CERTAINLY TAKE THIS UP WITH THE JUSTICE MINISTER. WHEN ASKED ABOUT THE REDUCTION OF POLLING STATIONS IN URBAN AREAS AND THE NUMBER OF VOTERS EACH COULD PROCESS PER HOUR, THEY ADMITTED THAT THEY DID NOT HAVE THESE STATISTICS IN HAND. HOWEVER, THE OBSERVERS SHOULD REST ASSURED THAT THE GOZ HAS AMPLE EXPERIENCE WITH SUCH MATTERS, AND CAN EXTEND VOTING HOURS, IF IT COMES TO THAT. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE IS ILL EQUIPPED WITH POLITE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00591 02 OF 02 061559Z ADJECTIVES TO FULLY DESCRIBE THE BRIEFING SESSION, ALTHOUGH OUTRAGEOUS, MIND-BOGGLING, AND DEPLORABLE DO SPRING TO MIND. THE ESC HAS PLAYED A CENTRAL ROLE IN THE GOZ'S STALLING TACTICS, AN EFFECTIVE REARGUARD ACTION THAT, IT WOULD APPEAR, HAS MANAGED TO KEEP THE LARGE CONTINGENT OF DOMESTIC OBSERVERS OFF THE FIELD. AT THIS POINT, TO MIX METAPHORS, THE ESC HAS SET THE ELECTORAL STAGE TO THE INCUMBENT'S ADVANTAGE AND DELIVERED THE OFFICIAL ESC LINE. ALL THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHETHER OR NOT THE ZIMBABWEAN ELECTORATE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY COWED TO PLAY OUT ITS DESIGNATED PART IN THE FINAL SCENE OF THE ZANU-PF SCRIPT. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >