REPORTED UNSYG CONSIDERATIONS RE ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 000588 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/FO KANSTEINER AND BELLAMY NSC FOR AFRICA SR ADVISER FRAZER CAPE TOWN PLEASE PASS TO A/S KANSTEINER USUN FOR AMBASSADOR NEGROPONTE E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: REPORTED UNSYG CONSIDERATIONS RE ZIMBABWE REF: HARARE 481(NOTAL) CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00588 061447Z CLASSIFIED BY JOSEPH SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5 B/D. 1.(C) UN RESREP VICTOR ANGELO CALLED ON THE AMBASSADOR MARCH 6 TO RELATE CONSIDERATIONS OF UNSYG ANNAN RE ZIMBABWE AND TO DISCUSS POSSIBLE FUTURE SYG ACTIONS. HE NOTED THAT SYG HAD ISSUED FEB 21 APPEAL THAT "PEOPLE OF ZIMBABWE BE ALLOWED TO CAST THEIR BALLOTS FREE FROM VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION AND HINDRANCE," THAT "PRESIDENT MUGABE AND THE OPPOSITION TO WORK TOGETHER TO ENSURE THAT ELECTIONS ARE CONDUCTED IN A FREE AND FAIR MANNER" AND THAT "THE GOVERNMENT ... LET THE PEOPLE MAKE THEIR CHOICE AND TO LIVE BY IT." HE SAID THAT HE HAD SPOKEN TO THE SYG FOR AN HOUR LAST FRIDAY AS THE SYG CONTEMPLATED WHAT MORE COULD BE DONE IN ADVANCE OF ELECTIONS. ANGELO AND THE AMBASSADOR AGREED THAT MORE APPEALS TO MUGABE IN ADVANCE OF ELECTIONS WOULD NOT BE WORTHWHILE, SINCE MUGABE HAD TURNED A DEAF EAR TO ALL APPEALS TO DATE AND WAS FIXED ON THE COURSE HE HAD SET. WE AGREED THAT THE DAYS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING ELECTIONS WOULD BE THE NEXT CRITICAL MOMENT FOR PHONE CALLS, MESSAGES AND PUBLIC STATEMENTS. ¶2. (C) ANGELO SAID THAT THE SYG HAD BEEN IN FREQUENT CONTACT WITH PRESIDENTS MBEKI AND OBASSANJO REGARDING ZIMBABWE AND TENDED TO HAVE A TOUGHER ATTITUDE THAN THEY DID. WE AGREED THAT IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT FOR THE SYG TO BE IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH THOSE TWO PRESIDENTS AND WITH THE USG IN THE LEADUP TO AND DAYS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING ELECTIONS. IN THE EVENT OF A LIKELY MDC VICTORY, WE AGREED THAT IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT TO CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00588 061447Z PUBLICLY RECOGNIZE SUCH A VICTORY EARLY AND GET CALLS AND MESSAGES TO PRESIDENT MUGABE AND MILITARY CHIEFS URGING THAT THEY DO THE RIGHT THING BY WORKING FOR A PEACEFUL DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION. IN THE EVENT OF A BLATANT ZANU-PF FRAUD OR SEIZURE OF POWER, WE AGREED THAT ALL THOSE WITH INFLUENCE NEEDED TO SEND IMMEDIATE PRIVATE MESSAGES AND TO MAKE PUBLIC STATEMENTS TO INSIST THAT SUCH A RESULT COULD NOT STAND AND MUST BE ANNULLED. IN THE EVENT OF AN APPARENT ZANU VICTORY ACHIEVED BY DINT OF THE VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION AND ELECTORAL SHENANIGANS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY, ANGELO JUDGED THAT THE SOUTH AFRICANS WOULD BE THE KEY DETERMINANTS OF WHETHER SUCH A RESULT WOULD STAND OR COULD BE ROLLED BACK. 3.(C) WE WILL MAINTAIN CLOSE CONTACT WITH UN RESREP IN THE DAYS FOLLOWING ELECTIONS AND URGE THAT WE COORDINATE CLOSELY WITH THE UN SYG IN OUR EFFORTS TO INFLUENCE EVENTS IN ZIMBABWE AND THE POSITIONS OF PRESIDENTS MBEKI AND OBASSANJO. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >