MORE ON TSVANGIRAI'S ALLEGED "PLOT" TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000572 SIPDIS FOR AF, PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/03 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PGOV PINR ZI SUBJECT: MORE ON TSVANGIRAI'S ALLEGED "PLOT" TO "ELIMINATE" MUGABE REF: A) HARARE 411 B) HARARE 501 CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. THE GOZ FIRED ANOTHER OFF-TARGET SALVO IN ITS CONTINUING ATTEMPT TO DISCREDIT MDC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE MORGAN TSVANGIRAI THROUGH ACCUSATIONS THAT HE APPROACHED THE CANADIAN DICKENS AND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00572 01 OF 02 051236Z MADSON LOBBYING FIRM, HEADED BY ONE ARI BEN MENASHE, TO ARRANGE THE "ASSASSINATION" OF PRESIDENT MUGABE (REFS A AND B). A MARCH 3 ZBC TELEVISION BROADCAST AGAIN SHOWED FILM CLIPS OF TSVANGIRAI TALKING WITH BEN MENASHE AND OTHER UNIDENTIFIED OBSERVERS. A SECOND SEGMENT OF THE ZBC PROGRAM FEATURED AIR FORCE COMMANDER PERENCE SHIRI DESCRIBING A SECOND MEETING WITH MDC MPS JOB SIKHALA AND TAFADZWA MUSEKIWA, WHOM SHIRI CLAIMED HAD OFFERED HIM A HEFTY FEE TO ASSIST THE MDC WITH A SMOOTH TRANSITION TO POWER AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. THE ENTIRE ZBC PROGRAM WAS AMATEURISH TO THE EXTREME AND OFFERED LITTLE CONVINCING EVIDENCE TO BUTTRESS THE GOZ'S CASE (OR ELECTORAL STRENGTH). ADDITIONAL INFORMATION GLEANED FROM CANADIAN DIPLOMATS SHEDS LIGHT ON TSVANGIRAI'S MOTIVE FOR MEETING BEN MENASHE AND COMPANY, BUT BRINGS INTO QUESTION HIS JUDGMENT IN THIS AFFAIR. END SUMMARY. -------------- FIRING A DUD -------------- ¶2. (U) THE MUCH ANTICIPATED TELEVISION EXPOSE ON MORGAN TSVANGIRAI'S ALLEGED PLOT TO ASSASSINATE PRESIDENT SIPDIS MUGABE TURNED OUT TO BE MUCH ADO ABOUT LITTLE. THE PROGRAM OPENED WITH A REBROADCAST OF THE GRAINY AND OFTEN INAUDIBLE FILM CLIPS OF TSVANGIRAI, ARI BEN MENASHE, BEN MENASHE'S CONSULTING COHORT, AND TWO OTHER INDIVIDUALS WHO COULD NOT BE CLEARLY IDENTIFIED IN THE TAPE. AN UNCONVINCING SPLICE JOB DID LITTLE TO ENHANCE THE CREDIBILITY OF THE TAPE, IN WHICH TSVANGIRAI -- FOLLOWING CONSIDERABLE PROMPTING AND POSSIBLY SPLICED OUT OF CONTEXT -- REFERS TO THE "ELIMINATION" OF MUGABE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00572 01 OF 02 051236Z AND A THREE-PHASE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD THAT INCLUDES DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS. ¶3. THE EXPOSE NEXT FEATURED CLIPS OF TSVANGIRAI DENYING INVOLVEMENT IN ANY PLOT, THEN BEN MENASHE (AN OLD MUGABE ACQUAINTANCE WHO FORMERLY HAD A BUSINESS ARRANGEMENT WITH SHIRI) CALLING TSVANGIRAI A LIAR AND PIOUSLY INTONING THAT HE HAD BEEN FORCED TO DO THE RIGHT THING AND EXPOSE THE PLOT. AN AUSTRALIAN INVESTIGATIVE FILMMAKER WHO HAD PRODUCED AN HOUR-LONG TELEVISION SEGMENT OUT OF THE TAPE, LARGELY DEPENDING ON VOICE OVER TECHNIQUES, DEFENDED HIS ROLE. THE ZBC BROADCAST THEN RETURNED TO THE NEWS ANNOUNCER, WHO OPENLY GLOATED OVER TSVANGIRAI'S PLIGHT. AIR FORCE COMMANDER SHIRI WAS NEXT SIPDIS IN LINE. FOLLOWING A TELEVISED PAN OF HIS FLEET OF PLASTIC MODEL AIRPLANES, A CAMERA SHY SHIRI DESCRIBED HOW MDC MPS SIKHALA AND MUSEKIWA HAD OFFERED HIM A 10 MILLION ZIMBABWEAN DOLLAR FEE TO HELP THE MDC ENGINEER A SMOOTH TRANSFER OF POWER FOLLOWING THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. AS PROOF, SHIRI PLAYED A TAPE HE HAD MADE OF THE MEETING. THE RECORDING WAS SO INAUDIBLE THAT AT MOST TIMES IT WAS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHAT LANGUAGE THEY PARTICIPANTS WERE SPEAKING, LET ALONE WHAT THEY WERE SAYING. -------------- A COMIC FARCE -------------- ¶4. (C) THE ENTIRE BROADCAST CAME ACROSS AS FARCICAL. IT BEGAN TWENTY MINUTES LATE AND WAS INTERRUPTED BY A LONG PERIOD OF VIDEO MUSIC CLIPS BEFORE THE SHIRI CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00572 01 OF 02 051236Z SEGMENT BEGAN, PROMPTING ONE TO SPECULATE THAT SOMEONE IN ZBC HAD SECOND THOUGHTS ON THE WISDOM OF EVEN AIRING THE PROGRAM. THE TSVANGIRAI/BEN MENASHE SEGMENT INDICATED THAT TSVANGIRAI DID IN SOME CONTEXT USE THE WORDS "ELIMINATE" AND "MUGABE" IN PROXIMITY, BUT WITH NO CLEAR REFERENCE TO WHETHER THIS WAS POLITICAL IN NATURE, OR OTHERWISE. UNLIKE MANY OF HIS GOZ COLLEAGUES, SHIRI IS NOT PARTICULARLY ADEPT AT PUBLICLY TWISTING THE TRUTH AND CAME ACROSS AS MENDACIOUS AND ILL AT EASE. WERE THE SUBJECT MATTER AND THE STAKES NOT SO SERIOUS, THE ENTIRE AMATEURISH PRODUCTION WOULD HAVE BEEN GENUINELY COMICAL FARE. -------------- ADDITIONAL INFORMATION -------------- ¶5. (C) CANADIAN DCM RONALD WILLSON PROVIDED THE DCM WITH BACKGROUND ON THE BEN MENASHE MEETING THAT SHEDS LIGHT ON HOW TSVANGIRAI HAD BEEN DUPED INTO THE UNFORTUNATE ENCOUNTER IN THE FIRST PLACE. WILSON SAID THAT MDC SECRETARY GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE HAD CONFIDED TO HIM THAT THE TWO UNIDENTIFIED MEN IN THE TAPE HAD CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ4659 PAGE 01 HARARE 00572 02 OF 02 051236Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 SSO-00 SS-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W -------------- 6FA3FB 051236Z /38 O 051230Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1097 INFO AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000572 SIPDIS FOR AF, PDAS BELLAMY; ALSO FOR AF/S E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/03 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PGOV PINR ZI SUBJECT: MORE ON TSVANGIRAI'S ALLEGED "PLOT" TO "ELIMINATE" MUGABE BEEN INTRODUCED TO TSVANGIRAI PRIOR TO THE MEETING AS, RESPECTIVELY, THE DEPUTY DIRECTORS OF THE CIA AND NSA. ACCORDING TO NCUBE, TSVANGIRAI HAD TAKEN THE CLAIMS OF THE TWO IMPERSONATORS AT FACE VALUE. THE CANADIANS ALSO INFORMED US THAT A SENIOR CIO OFFICIAL TRAVELED TO MONTREAL AT THE TIME OF THE MONTREAL MEETING. STATE SECURITY MINISTER GOCHE ALSO TRAVELED TO MONTREAL IN FEBRUARY JUST PRIOR TO THE FIRST AUSTRALIAN AIRING OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00572 02 OF 02 051236Z THE VIDEO. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) UNLESS MUGABE AND HIS BACKERS HAVE MORE COMPELLING EVIDENCE THAN THAT PRESENTED IN THE BROADCAST, IT IS DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE THAT TSVANGIRAI AND HIS ASSOCIATE ARE IN MUCH DANGER OF BEING CONVICTED IN AN IMPARTIAL COURT OF LAW. WE OBVIOUSLY DO NOT DISCOUNT THE ABILITY OF THE GOZ TO STRING OUT THE CASE AND HARASS TSVANGIRAI AT THE TIME OF ITS OWN CHOOSING. THE MONTY-PYTHONESQUE NATURE OF THE ZBC BROADCAST OFFERS LITTLE TO CONVINCE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY THAT THE ENTIRE AFFAIR IS MORE THAN JUST ANOTHER ITEM PULLED OUT OF THE GOZ'S BAG OF DIRTY TRICKS. IN TERMS OF ELECTIONS, WE THINK THAT THE ENTIRE AFFAIR IS A NON- EVENT. THOSE INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE TAPE PROBABLY WILL DO SO, AND THOSE NOT SO INCLINED WILL NOT. WE NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT IN TERMS OF GOOD JUDGMENT AND ADEQUATE STAFF WORK, THE MONTREAL MEETING WAS NOT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI'S FINEST HOUR. SIPDIS SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >