MDC DIPLOMATIC CORPS BRIEFING ON TRANSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000561

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR PDAS BELLAMY

DEPARTMENT PASS USAID

NSC FOR JENDAYI FRASIER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/07
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID ECON PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: MDC DIPLOMATIC CORPS BRIEFING ON TRANSITION
PROGRAMS SHUT DOWN AS "ILLEGAL MEETING"

CLASSIFIED BY POL TDY AARON TARVER, REASON: 1.5 (B) AND
(D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. GOZ SECURITY OFFICIALS CUT SHORT A
MARCH 4 MDC BRIEFING FOR THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY ON THE
GROUNDS THAT THIS WAS AN "ILLEGAL MEETING" UNDER THE
PUBLIC ORDER AND SECURITY ACT (POSA). BEFORE THIS
OCCURRED, MDC OFFICIALS HAD EXPRESSED A NEED FOR MASSIVE
FOOD ASSISTANCE MAIZE AND AN ADDITIONAL $500 MILLION IN
GRANT AID OVER THE NEXT THREE YEARS TO IMPLEMENT A MORE
RATIONAL AND SUSTAINABLE LAND REFORM PROGRAM. WHILE THE
MDC'S FIGURES FOR DONOR ASSISTANCE LEVELS ARE
UNREALISTIC, AT LEAST IT SHOWS A FOCUS ON LONGER-TERM
PROBLEMS THAT WILL NOT GO AWAY IN THE POST-ELECTION
ENVIRONMENT. BY CLOSING DOWN THE MEETING, THE GOZ AGAIN
HAS THROWN DOWN THE GAUNTLET BEFORE THE WEST. END
SUMMARY.

GOZ SHUTS DOWN MEETING
--------------


2. (U) APPROXIMATELY 45 MINUTES INTO A MARCH 4 MEETING
OUTLINING THE MDC'S TRANSITION PROGRAM FOR ZIMBABWE, MDC
LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI INFORMED INVITED MEMBERS OF THE
DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY THAT THE GOZ HAD ORDERED HIM TO
SHUT DOWN THE "ILLEGAL" GATHERING UNDER POSA. THE GOZ
ALSO REQUESTED THE MDC TO PRODUCE THE NAMES OF ALL THOSE
WHO ATTENDED -- OR WERE INVITED. MOST OF THE EUROPEAN
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00561 01 OF 02 041339Z
UNION, INCLUDING THE UK HIGH COMMISSION AND DFID WERE
REPRESENTED, WITH DENMARK, BELGIUM, SPAIN, AND NORWAY
REPRESENTED BY THEIR AMBASSADORS. (NOTE: THE ONLY
AFRICAN DIPLOMAT PRESENT WAS A THIRD SECRETARY FROM THE
BOTSWANA HIGH COMMISSION.) TSVANGIRAI ANGRILY DENOUNCED
THE ACTION, LABELING IT AS MORE "POLITICAL HARASSMENT,"
AND VOWED THAT NO NAMES WOULD BE FORTHCOMING. MR. NGOWU
WAS NAMED AS THE GOZ OFFICIAL WHO ORDERED THE CLOSURE.

MDC STARTS TO BRIEF DIP CORPS ON TRANSITION PROGRAM
-------------- --------------


3. (U) TSVANGIRAI, FLANKED BY VICE PRESIDENT GIBSON
SIBANDA, TSVANGIRAI OPENED THE ABORTIVE BRIEFING BY
NOTING THAT REGARDLESS OF THE ELECTION'S OUTCOME, THE
COMBINATION OF DROUGHT AND LACK OF FOOD PRODUCTION WOULD
FORCE MANY ZIMBABWEANS TO RELY ON FOOD AID UNTIL LATE

2003. TO ADDRESS THIS AND OTHER PRESSING ISSUES,
TSVANGIRAI ASKED IAN MAKONE (A CONSULTANT AND MDC

SIPDIS
COMMITTEE MEMBER),RENSON GASELA (MDC MP AND SHADOW
AGRICULTURE MINISTER),AND PETER ROBINSON TO FLESH OUT
THE MDC STRATEGY FOR RETURNING ZIMBABWE TO PRODUCTIVITY
AND PROSPERITY.

FOOD SECURITY
--------------


4. (U) SHADOW AGRICULTURE MINISTER RENSON GASELA GAVE
THE MDC'S ASSESSMENT OF FOOD ASSISTANCE NEEDS. ZIMBABWE
CONSUMES 1.8 MILLION TONS OF MAIZE MEAL PER ANNUM, BUT
THIS YEAR WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE 600 THOUSAND
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PAGE 04 HARARE 00561 01 OF 02 041339Z
TONS, HE SAID (THE LOWEST FIGURE WE HAVE HEARD TO DATE);
CURRENT MAIZE MEAL IMPORTATION IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
PEOPLE FED FOR ONLY 2.5 DAYS PER WEEK. ZIMBABWE WILL
NEED TO IMPORT 100 THOUSAND TONS/MONTH OF MAIZE MEAL
UNTIL AT LEAST JUNE 2003. ZIMBABWE WILL ALSO NEED 15
THOUSAND, 5 THOUSAND, AND 2.5 THOUSAND TONS PER MONTH OF
WHEAT, SOYBEANS AND VEGETABLE OIL, RESPECTIVELY, TO
PREVENT MALNOURISHMENT. ZIMBABWE WOULD ALSO NEED TO
IMPORT $6 MILLION IN ESSENTIAL MEDICAL SUPPLIES AND
LIQUID FUEL/ELECTRICITY ABOVE AND BEYOND THAT CURRENTLY
BUDGETED, SAID GASELA.


5. (U) THE MDC'S MEDIUM-TERM FOOD PRODUCTION STRATEGY
INTENDS EXPLICIT SUBSIDIES OF MAIZE MEAL IMPORTS UNTIL
PRODUCTION LEVELS INCREASE. (COMMENT: AND, ALTHOUGH HE
DID NOT SAY IT, UNTIL THE ZIMBABWE DOLLAR STABILIZES.
END COMMENT.) AN MDC GOVERNMENT WOULD MOVE TO ABANDON
PRICE CONTROLS ALTOGETHER, AND WOULD ALLOW DIRECT
PURCHASING FROM THE GRAIN MARKETING BOARD TO LOWER THE
BASE PRICE (WISHFUL THINKING, WE FEAR). THE HAMMERMILL
MEAL PRICE SHOULD REMAIN LOWER THAN THE IMPORT PRICE, HE
SAID, THUS ENCOURAGING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION.

LAND REFORM: MDC LOOKS TO DONORS
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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ0889

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 COME-00
CTME-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00
EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00
INR-00 IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01
DCP-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01
PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00
STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00
DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /014W
-------------- 6F0390 041339Z /38
R 041334Z MAR 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1081
INFO OAU COLLECTIVE
EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000561

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR PDAS BELLAMY

DEPARTMENT PASS USAID

NSC FOR JENDAYI FRASIER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/07
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID ECON PHUM ZI
CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 HARARE 00561 02 OF 02 041339Z
SUBJECT: MDC DIPLOMATIC CORPS BRIEFING ON TRANSITION
PROGRAMS SHUT DOWN AS "ILLEGAL MEETING"


6. (U) GASELA EMPHASIZED THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ISSUE TO
ALL ZIMBABWEANS, SAYING, "LAND REFORM IS NOT A POLITICAL
PARTY ISSUE." HE WAS QUICK TO POINT OUT, HOWEVER, THAT
THE GOZ'S PROGRAM HAS NOT LED TO THE DESIRED RESULTS;
EVEN SHOULD THE GOZ COMPLETE ITS RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, A
MAJORITY OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS WOULD STILL BE IN COMMUNAL
AREAS, HE SAID. ONCE RESETTLED, THE NEW FARMERS ARE
LEFT ON THEIR OWN TO FARM THE LAND, LEADING TO UNDER-
PRODUCTIVE SUBSISTENCE FARMING. THUS, 90 MILLION
HECTARES OF COMMUNAL AREA FARMLAND ARE UNDERDEVELOPED,
HE SAID.


7. (U) GASELA ADDED THAT THE MDC INTENDS TO CREATE AN
IMPARTIAL LAND COMMISSION, WHICH WILL COORDINATE LAND
REFORM (WITH INPUT FROM THE MINISTRIES OF LOCAL
GOVERNMENT & ENVIRONMENT AND AGRICULTURE &
INFRASTRUCTURE),AFTER RECEIVING ITS MARCHING ORDERS
FROM A LAND INDABA (CONCLAVE) TO BE CONVENED AFTER THE
ELECTION. HE CONCLUDED THAT THE MDC INTENDS TO CREATE A
RURAL DEVELOPMENT FUND THAT WOULD COST $33 MILLION FOR
2002, $200 MILLION FOR 2003, AND $300 MILLION FOR 2004.
THIS PROGRAM WOULD REQUIRE SUBSTANTIAL DONOR GRANT
ASSISTANCE, HE NOTED.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) IF OUR MATH IS CORRECT, THE MDC TRANSITION
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PAGE 03 HARARE 00561 02 OF 02 041339Z
STRATEGY IS POSITED ON USD ONE BILLION PLUS IN DONOR
SUPPORT FOR EMERGENCY FOOD AID AND LAND REFORM IN THE
2002-2004 PERIOD. THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FUEL
AND ELECTRICITY SUPPLIES AND A NUMBER OF OTHER NECESSARY
EXPENDITURES. WHILE THIS SUM IS CLEARLY UNREALISTIC, AT
LEAST IT SHOWS THAT THE MDC LEADERSHIP IS AWARE OF THE
ENORMITY OF THE CHALLENGES IT FACES. THE REACTION OF
THE PARTICIPATING DIPLOMATS TO THE ONE-BILLION FIGURE
WAS MUCH LESS THAN THEIR REACTION TO THE ABRUPT CLOSURE
OF THE MEETING. INITIAL DISBELIEF GAVE WAY TO AMUSEMENT
AND WAS CRYSTALLIZING INTO ANGER BY THE TIME THE
DIPLOMATS WERE FILING OUT OF THE MEIKLES HOTEL, WHERE
THE BRIEFING TOOK PLACE. THE GOZ IS DOING ITS BEST TO
BURN BRIDGES TO SUCH AN EXTENT THAT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
THEY CAN BE REBUILT EVEN IF ZANU-PF MANAGES BY HOOK OR
CROOK TO HOLD ON TO POWER.

SULLIVAN

CONFIDENTIAL

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