MDC DIPLOMATIC CORPS BRIEFING ON TRANSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000561 SIPDIS AF/S FOR PDAS BELLAMY DEPARTMENT PASS USAID NSC FOR JENDAYI FRASIER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/07 TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID ECON PHUM ZI SUBJECT: MDC DIPLOMATIC CORPS BRIEFING ON TRANSITION PROGRAMS SHUT DOWN AS "ILLEGAL MEETING" CLASSIFIED BY POL TDY AARON TARVER, REASON: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. GOZ SECURITY OFFICIALS CUT SHORT A MARCH 4 MDC BRIEFING FOR THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY ON THE GROUNDS THAT THIS WAS AN "ILLEGAL MEETING" UNDER THE PUBLIC ORDER AND SECURITY ACT (POSA). BEFORE THIS OCCURRED, MDC OFFICIALS HAD EXPRESSED A NEED FOR MASSIVE FOOD ASSISTANCE MAIZE AND AN ADDITIONAL $500 MILLION IN GRANT AID OVER THE NEXT THREE YEARS TO IMPLEMENT A MORE RATIONAL AND SUSTAINABLE LAND REFORM PROGRAM. WHILE THE MDC'S FIGURES FOR DONOR ASSISTANCE LEVELS ARE UNREALISTIC, AT LEAST IT SHOWS A FOCUS ON LONGER-TERM PROBLEMS THAT WILL NOT GO AWAY IN THE POST-ELECTION ENVIRONMENT. BY CLOSING DOWN THE MEETING, THE GOZ AGAIN HAS THROWN DOWN THE GAUNTLET BEFORE THE WEST. END SUMMARY. GOZ SHUTS DOWN MEETING -------------- ¶2. (U) APPROXIMATELY 45 MINUTES INTO A MARCH 4 MEETING OUTLINING THE MDC'S TRANSITION PROGRAM FOR ZIMBABWE, MDC LEADER MORGAN TSVANGIRAI INFORMED INVITED MEMBERS OF THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY THAT THE GOZ HAD ORDERED HIM TO SHUT DOWN THE "ILLEGAL" GATHERING UNDER POSA. THE GOZ ALSO REQUESTED THE MDC TO PRODUCE THE NAMES OF ALL THOSE WHO ATTENDED -- OR WERE INVITED. MOST OF THE EUROPEAN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00561 01 OF 02 041339Z UNION, INCLUDING THE UK HIGH COMMISSION AND DFID WERE REPRESENTED, WITH DENMARK, BELGIUM, SPAIN, AND NORWAY REPRESENTED BY THEIR AMBASSADORS. (NOTE: THE ONLY AFRICAN DIPLOMAT PRESENT WAS A THIRD SECRETARY FROM THE BOTSWANA HIGH COMMISSION.) TSVANGIRAI ANGRILY DENOUNCED THE ACTION, LABELING IT AS MORE "POLITICAL HARASSMENT," AND VOWED THAT NO NAMES WOULD BE FORTHCOMING. MR. NGOWU WAS NAMED AS THE GOZ OFFICIAL WHO ORDERED THE CLOSURE. MDC STARTS TO BRIEF DIP CORPS ON TRANSITION PROGRAM -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) TSVANGIRAI, FLANKED BY VICE PRESIDENT GIBSON SIBANDA, TSVANGIRAI OPENED THE ABORTIVE BRIEFING BY NOTING THAT REGARDLESS OF THE ELECTION'S OUTCOME, THE COMBINATION OF DROUGHT AND LACK OF FOOD PRODUCTION WOULD FORCE MANY ZIMBABWEANS TO RELY ON FOOD AID UNTIL LATE ¶2003. TO ADDRESS THIS AND OTHER PRESSING ISSUES, TSVANGIRAI ASKED IAN MAKONE (A CONSULTANT AND MDC SIPDIS COMMITTEE MEMBER),RENSON GASELA (MDC MP AND SHADOW AGRICULTURE MINISTER),AND PETER ROBINSON TO FLESH OUT THE MDC STRATEGY FOR RETURNING ZIMBABWE TO PRODUCTIVITY AND PROSPERITY. FOOD SECURITY -------------- ¶4. (U) SHADOW AGRICULTURE MINISTER RENSON GASELA GAVE THE MDC'S ASSESSMENT OF FOOD ASSISTANCE NEEDS. ZIMBABWE CONSUMES 1.8 MILLION TONS OF MAIZE MEAL PER ANNUM, BUT THIS YEAR WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE 600 THOUSAND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00561 01 OF 02 041339Z TONS, HE SAID (THE LOWEST FIGURE WE HAVE HEARD TO DATE); CURRENT MAIZE MEAL IMPORTATION IS SUFFICIENT TO KEEP PEOPLE FED FOR ONLY 2.5 DAYS PER WEEK. ZIMBABWE WILL NEED TO IMPORT 100 THOUSAND TONS/MONTH OF MAIZE MEAL UNTIL AT LEAST JUNE 2003. ZIMBABWE WILL ALSO NEED 15 THOUSAND, 5 THOUSAND, AND 2.5 THOUSAND TONS PER MONTH OF WHEAT, SOYBEANS AND VEGETABLE OIL, RESPECTIVELY, TO PREVENT MALNOURISHMENT. ZIMBABWE WOULD ALSO NEED TO IMPORT $6 MILLION IN ESSENTIAL MEDICAL SUPPLIES AND LIQUID FUEL/ELECTRICITY ABOVE AND BEYOND THAT CURRENTLY BUDGETED, SAID GASELA. ¶5. (U) THE MDC'S MEDIUM-TERM FOOD PRODUCTION STRATEGY INTENDS EXPLICIT SUBSIDIES OF MAIZE MEAL IMPORTS UNTIL PRODUCTION LEVELS INCREASE. (COMMENT: AND, ALTHOUGH HE DID NOT SAY IT, UNTIL THE ZIMBABWE DOLLAR STABILIZES. END COMMENT.) AN MDC GOVERNMENT WOULD MOVE TO ABANDON PRICE CONTROLS ALTOGETHER, AND WOULD ALLOW DIRECT PURCHASING FROM THE GRAIN MARKETING BOARD TO LOWER THE BASE PRICE (WISHFUL THINKING, WE FEAR). THE HAMMERMILL MEAL PRICE SHOULD REMAIN LOWER THAN THE IMPORT PRICE, HE SAID, THUS ENCOURAGING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION. LAND REFORM: MDC LOOKS TO DONORS -------------- CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ0889 PAGE 01 HARARE 00561 02 OF 02 041339Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 COME-00 CTME-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 EPAE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /014W -------------- 6F0390 041339Z /38 R 041334Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1081 INFO OAU COLLECTIVE EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE AMEMBASSY CANBERRA NSC WASHDC C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000561 SIPDIS AF/S FOR PDAS BELLAMY DEPARTMENT PASS USAID NSC FOR JENDAYI FRASIER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/07 TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID ECON PHUM ZI CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00561 02 OF 02 041339Z SUBJECT: MDC DIPLOMATIC CORPS BRIEFING ON TRANSITION PROGRAMS SHUT DOWN AS "ILLEGAL MEETING" ¶6. (U) GASELA EMPHASIZED THE IMPORTANCE OF THE ISSUE TO ALL ZIMBABWEANS, SAYING, "LAND REFORM IS NOT A POLITICAL PARTY ISSUE." HE WAS QUICK TO POINT OUT, HOWEVER, THAT THE GOZ'S PROGRAM HAS NOT LED TO THE DESIRED RESULTS; EVEN SHOULD THE GOZ COMPLETE ITS RESETTLEMENT PROGRAM, A MAJORITY OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS WOULD STILL BE IN COMMUNAL AREAS, HE SAID. ONCE RESETTLED, THE NEW FARMERS ARE LEFT ON THEIR OWN TO FARM THE LAND, LEADING TO UNDER- PRODUCTIVE SUBSISTENCE FARMING. THUS, 90 MILLION HECTARES OF COMMUNAL AREA FARMLAND ARE UNDERDEVELOPED, HE SAID. ¶7. (U) GASELA ADDED THAT THE MDC INTENDS TO CREATE AN IMPARTIAL LAND COMMISSION, WHICH WILL COORDINATE LAND REFORM (WITH INPUT FROM THE MINISTRIES OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT & ENVIRONMENT AND AGRICULTURE & INFRASTRUCTURE),AFTER RECEIVING ITS MARCHING ORDERS FROM A LAND INDABA (CONCLAVE) TO BE CONVENED AFTER THE ELECTION. HE CONCLUDED THAT THE MDC INTENDS TO CREATE A RURAL DEVELOPMENT FUND THAT WOULD COST $33 MILLION FOR 2002, $200 MILLION FOR 2003, AND $300 MILLION FOR 2004. THIS PROGRAM WOULD REQUIRE SUBSTANTIAL DONOR GRANT ASSISTANCE, HE NOTED. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) IF OUR MATH IS CORRECT, THE MDC TRANSITION CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00561 02 OF 02 041339Z STRATEGY IS POSITED ON USD ONE BILLION PLUS IN DONOR SUPPORT FOR EMERGENCY FOOD AID AND LAND REFORM IN THE 2002-2004 PERIOD. THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT FUEL AND ELECTRICITY SUPPLIES AND A NUMBER OF OTHER NECESSARY EXPENDITURES. WHILE THIS SUM IS CLEARLY UNREALISTIC, AT LEAST IT SHOWS THAT THE MDC LEADERSHIP IS AWARE OF THE ENORMITY OF THE CHALLENGES IT FACES. THE REACTION OF THE PARTICIPATING DIPLOMATS TO THE ONE-BILLION FIGURE WAS MUCH LESS THAN THEIR REACTION TO THE ABRUPT CLOSURE OF THE MEETING. INITIAL DISBELIEF GAVE WAY TO AMUSEMENT AND WAS CRYSTALLIZING INTO ANGER BY THE TIME THE DIPLOMATS WERE FILING OUT OF THE MEIKLES HOTEL, WHERE THE BRIEFING TOOK PLACE. THE GOZ IS DOING ITS BEST TO BURN BRIDGES TO SUCH AN EXTENT THAT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THEY CAN BE REBUILT EVEN IF ZANU-PF MANAGES BY HOOK OR CROOK TO HOLD ON TO POWER. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >