MORE ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS, MORE UNCERTAINTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000556 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF AND AF/S NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/02 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PHUM KDEM ZI SUBJECT: MORE ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS, MORE UNCERTAINTY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00556 01 OF 02 020823Z REF: HARARE 543 (NOTAL) CLASSIFIED BY DCM REWHITEHEAD DUE TO 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. IN ADDITION TO THE SUPREME COURT DECISION STRIKING DOWN ELECTORAL LAW AMENDMENTS (REFTEL),THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF LEGAL AND OTHER ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE PAST 48 HOURS. A HIGH COURT JUDGEMENT ON DUAL NATIONALITY AND A SUPREME COURT RULING ON VOTING BY CONSTITUENCIES HAVE CLARIFIED THESE ISSUES, ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLY TOO LATE IN THE PROCESS TO HAVE ANY PRACTICAL EFFECT. JUSTICE MINISTER CHINAMASA CONFIRMED OUR ANALYSIS (REFTEL) THAT HE INTENDS TO RUN THE ELECTIONS AS HE WISHES, COURT RULINGS NOTWITHSTANDING. THE CONFUSION SURROUNDING THE ELECTORAL PROCESS HAS BEEN FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE ELECTORAL SUPERVISORY COMMISSION'S (ESC) FAILURE TO RELEASE THE LIST OF POLLING PLACES, WHICH IN TURN WOULD TRIGGER THE RELEASE OF THE NAMES OF POLLING AGENTS AND PRESIDING OFFICERS. THE EMERGING "CHAOS" AROUND THE ELECTORAL PROCESS IS BEING ORCHESTRATED BY THE GOZ TO FAVOR ZANU-PF. END SUMMARY. LEGAL DEVELOPMENTS -------------- ¶2. (C) A HIGH COURT RULING AND A SUPREME COURT RULING HAVE CLARIFIED TWO ISSUES THAT HAVE DOGGED THE ZIMBABWEAN POLITICAL CLIMATE FOR MONTHS. THE HIGH COURT RULED PROVISIONALLY ON THE CONTROVERSIAL DUAL NATIONALITY ISSUE, WHICH HAS FORCED THOUSANDS OF DUAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00556 01 OF 02 020823Z NATIONAL ZIMBABWEANS TO RENOUNCE ONE OR THE OTHER OF THEIR HOMELANDS. (THE OPPOSITION HAS REPEATEDLY CHARGED THAT ZANU-PF ENGINEERED THIS INITIATIVE TO DISENFRANCHISE SEVERAL MILLION POTENTIAL VOTERS WHO ARE COMMERCIAL FARM WORKERS WITH ROOTS IN NEIGHBORING COURTRIES, OR SETTLERS OF NON_AFRICAN ANCESTRY.) THE HIGH COURT EXTENDED THE ALREADY PASSED DEADLINE FOR RENUNCIATION BY SIX MONTHS, AN INTERIM RULING THAT PRESUMABLY WOULD BE WELCOMED BY THE MDC. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE SUPREME COURT OVERTURNED A HIGH COURT RULING THAT COMPELLED THE REGISTRAR GENERAL (RG) TO COMPILE A NATIONAL LIST AND PERMIT NATIONAL, RATHER THAN CONSTITUENCY LEVEL, VOTING FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. SCORE ONE FOR ZANU-PF. CHINAMASA SET THE RECORD STRAIGHT -------------- �00A;¶3. (C) IN AN EXTENDED LIVE INTERVIEW ON ZBC TELEVISION EVENING NEWS, JUSTICE MINISTER CHINAMASA CONFIRMED OURS SUSPICIONS THAT HE WILL FORGE AHEAD ON ELECTORAL PLANNING AS HE CHOOSES, AND DAMN THE COURTS. CHINAMASA STATED, ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MORE OBLIQUELY, THAT THE GOZ WILL EMPLOY PRESIDENTIAL DIRECTIVES TO RUN THE ELECTION ALONG THE SAME LINES ENVISAGED BY THE AMENDED ELECTORAL ACT THAT THE SUPREME COURT STRUCK DOWN. THE CATCH 22 POLLING STATION CONUNDRUM -------------- ¶4. (C) IN A MEETING WITH INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS, AS REPORTED BY THE EU, THE DEPUTY HEAD OF THE ESC MORE OR LESS STATED THAT THE ESC IS EMPOWERED BY LAW TO PUT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00556 01 OF 02 020823Z POLLING STATIONS WHERE THEY ARE NEEDED. BY LOGICAL EXTENSION, THEY MAY ALSO REMOVE THEM FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOT WANTED. HE WOULD NEITHER CONFIRM NOR DENY THAT POLLING STATION NUMBERS WILL BE REDUCED IN MDC STRONGHOLDS AND INCREASED IN ZANU-PF TERRITORY, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE. IT IS THUS FAR IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY, SINCE NEITHER THE RG NOR ESC HAVE RELEASED A LIST OF DESIGNATED POLLING PLACES. THIS IN TURN HAS PREVENTED ANYONE FROM OBTAINING NAMES OF POLLING AGENTS AND PRESIDING OFFICERS, EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING PROGRESS ON PLANNING WHERE AND HOW TO DEPLOY INTERNATIONAL/LOCAL MONITORS AND POLITICAL PARTY AGENTS ON THE VOTING DAYS. COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) WE ARE INCREASINGLY CONVINCED THAT THE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS ARE INTEGRAL PARTS OF A CAREFULLY ORCHESTRATED SCHEME TO OBSCURE THE ELECTIONS BENEATH A VEIL OF DISORDER AND UNCERTAINTY. THE HIGH COURT RULING ON DUAL NATIONALITY MEANS NOTHING, ONE WEEK AWAY FROM THE VOTE, SINCE THE VOTER ROLLS ARE PRESUMABLY CLOSED FOR THOSE PROBABLE MDC SUPPORTERS WHO HAVE THEORETICALLY RECEIVED A JUDICIAL REPRIEVE FROM DISENFRANCHISEMENT. THE CONSTITUENCY DECISION IS MORE OF A TWO-EDGED SWORD CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ8470 PAGE 01 HARARE 00556 02 OF 02 020823Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PC-01 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /010W -------------- 6E5D2E 020823Z /38 O 020812Z MAR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1077 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY OSLO PRIORITY AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000556 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF AND AF/S NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/02 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PHUM KDEM ZI SUBJECT: MORE ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS, MORE UNCERTAINTY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00556 02 OF 02 020823Z AND THUS HARDER TO COMPREHEND FROM THE ZANU-PF PERSPECTIVE. IT WOULD SEEM TO BE AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO DISCOURAGE INTIMIDATED AND DISLOCATED MDC SUPPORTERS FROM RETURNING TO VOTE IN THEIR HOME CONSTITUENCIES, BUT IT WOULD ALSO SERVE TO COMPLICATE ZANU-PF ATTEMPTS TO BRING IN OUTSIDERS TO VOTE IN CONSTITUENCIES OTHER THAN THEIR OWN. FROM OUR PERSPECTIVE, THE GOZ HAS SET THE STAGE TO SUPPORT THEIR EFFORTS TO TILT THE VOTE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE IN FAVOR OF ZANU-PF WHILE ATTEMPTING, THROUGH THE FOG OF CONFUSION, TO MAINTIAN A PRETEXT THAT THEY HAVE NOT OUTRIGHT STOLEN THE ELECTION. THE CAT AND MOUSE GAME WITH OBSERVERS AND DOMESTIC CSOS CONTINUES, WITH ZANU-PF AND CHINAMASA DETERMINING THE RULES. END SUMMARY. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >