AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES ELECTION OBSERVATION, ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000343 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER PARIS FOR NEARY LONDON FOR GURNEY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/12 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES ELECTION OBSERVATION, ELECTION PROSPECTS AND POST-ELECTION PLANNING WITH BRITISH OFFICIALS REF: HARARE 315 CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). ¶1. C) THE BRITISH HIGH COMMISSIONER TO ZIMBABWE, BRIAN DONNELLY, JOINED BY FCO DIRECTOR FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA ANDREW POCOCK AND IAN BAILEY FROM THE BRITISH CABINET OFFICE CALLED ON THE AMBASSADOR ON FEBRUARY 6. THE AMBASSADOR WAS ACCOMPANIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF. ELECTION OBSERVATION -------------- ¶2. (C) DONNELLY REPORTED THAT THE EU HAD BEEN GIVEN AN UNSIGNED LETTER BY FOREIGN MINISTER MUDENGE ON FEBRUARY 5 INVITING THE EU AND ACP TO SEND AN OBSERVER DELEGATION. HE SAID THE WORDING OF THE INVITATION WAS STRANGE, SAYING "THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE WOULD BE HONORED IF THE EU-ACP DELEGATION INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING NINE COUNTRIES..." THE SIX EU MEMBERS NOT LISTED, DONNELLY SAID, WERE THE UNITED KINGDOM, GERMANY, DENMARK, SWEDEN, FINLAND, AND THE NETHERLANDS. THE EU, POCOCK NOTED, NOW NEEDS TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE LATTER SIX COUNTRIES HAVE BEEN DEFINITIVELY RULED OUT OR WHETHER THE GOZ HAS SIMPLY EXPRESSED A PREFERENCE THAT THEY NOT PARTICIPATE. POCOCK SAID HE ASSUMED THAT IMPOSITION OF TARGETED SANCTIONS BY THE EU WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE AN EU OBSERVER MISSION, SO IT MIGHT MAKE MORE SENSE TO HOLD BACK ON A SANCTIONS DECISION AT LEAST UNTIL THE FULL DELEGATION WAS IN PLACE. DONNELLY ADDED THAT MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI HAD TOLD THEM THAT MORNING THAT GETTING OBSERVERS ON THE GROUND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE, CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00343 01 OF 02 071428Z AND HAD URGED THE EU TO KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF SANCTIONS PENDING AND HANGING OVER THE GOZ FOR NOW. POCOCK SAID THE GERMANS AND THE DANES ARE THE EU'S HARDLINERS ON ZIMBABWE AND ARE PUSHING FOR AN IMMEDIATE IMPOSITION OF SANCTIONS. (LATE ON FEBRUARY 6, DONNELLY TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT THE EU RECEIVED THE FINAL, SIGNED VERSION OF THE MUDENGE LETTER WHICH ADDS EXTRA SALT TO THE MIX BY INSISTING THAT THE ACP HEAD THE EU DELEGATION. BRITISH HC TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT THIS ADDED INSULT COULD SWING THE EU MINISTERIAL MEETING OF FEB 8 AGAINST ACCEPTING SUCH AN OBSERVATION INVITATION AND IN FAVOR OF SANCTIONS, SINCE GERMANY AND OTHERS WERE ALREADY ARGUING IN FAVOR OF SANCTIONS.) THE AMBASSADOR REPORTED THAT MDC MP DAVID COLTART HAD IMPRESSED UPON HIM THE DAY BEFORE THE IMPORTANCE OF ENSURING THAT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS BE PRESENT AT ALL 120 COUNTING CENTERS, AND THAT THEY BE DEPLOYED AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE TO TROUBLE SPOTS OF MOUNT DARWIN, BEITBRIDGE, AND GOKWE. ¶3. (C) AMBASSADOR SULLIVAN NOTED THAT A TEAM OF FOUR PEOPLE FROM THE COMMONWEALTH SECRETARIAT HAD ARRIVED IN HARARE THE PREVIOUS DAY AS THE ADVANCE PARTY OF THE COMMONWEALTH OBSERVER MISSION. WE HAD BEEN TOLD BY JOHN SHEPPARD, THE LEADER OF THE ADVANCE GROUP, THAT SIX OBSERVERS WOULD ARRIVE BY FEBRUARY 11 AND THAT THE ENTIRE DELEGATION OF 30 OBSERVERS AND 15 SUPPORT STAFF WOULD BE IN PLACE BY FEBRUARY 23. THE AMBASSADOR QUESTIONED WHETHER SUCH A DELEGATION MIGHT BE TOO SMALL TO DO A COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT AND ASKED WHETHER THE UK MIGHT ASSIST IN PROVIDING FUNDS TO BEEF UP THE SIZE. POCOCK WAS NOT SURE, BUT REPORTED THAT THE COMMONWEALTH SECRETARY-GENERAL HAD CIRCULATED A LETTER TO MEMBERS REQUESTING SIPDIS TOTAL CONTRIBUTIONS OF 400,000 POUNDS TO FINANCE THE COSTS OF THE OBSERVER DELEGATION. WHILE SOME EARLY COMMONWEALTH OBSERVERS ARE ON THE GROUND, WE HEARD FROM THE NIGERIAN HC THAT THE ZIMBABWEANS CONTINUE PLAYING FOR TIME, INSISTING THAT THE NIGERIAN MEMBER OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00343 01 OF 02 071428Z THE OBSERVATION MISSION MAY NOT COME UNTIL THE LETTER OF INVITATION IS RECEIVED IN COMMONWEALTH HEADQUARTERS, A DELIVERY WHICH IS REGULARLY DELAYED, MDC'S PROSPECTS -------------- ¶4. (C) POCOCK SAID TSVANGIRAI SEEMED GENUINELY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT HIS CHANCES OF UNSEATING PRESIDENT MUGABE. HE REPORTEDLY BELIEVES THE MDC HAS GAINED SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT IN THE ZANU-PF STRONGHOLDS OF MASHONALAND -- PARTLY A PRODUCT OF INTENSIVE LOBBYING OF THE TRADITIONAL LEADERS IN THAT REGION. TSVANGIRAI SAID HE THOUGHT THE MDC COULD WIN AS MANY AS HALF THE VOTES IN MASHONALAND CENTRAL PROVINCE AND IN THE LOW 40 PERCENT RANGE IN MASHONALAND EAST. (NOTE: THOSE FIGURES ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREDICTIONS OF TSVANGIRAI'S SPECIAL ADVISOR -- SEE REFTEL. END NOTE.) CEPHAS SIPDIS MSIPA, GOVERNOR OF MIDLANDS PROVINCE, PREDICTED TO OUR INTERLOCUTORS THAT THE MDC WOULD LIKELY WIN MIDLANDS. (COMMENT: MSIPA'S PREDICTION IS REMARKABLE FOR TWO REASONS: THE GOVERNOR IS A SENIOR OFFICAL IN ZANU-PF, AND THE RULING PARTY WON 62 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN MIDLANDS IN THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. AN CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ6998 PAGE 01 HARARE 00343 02 OF 02 071428Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 EVG-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 WHA-00 DS-00 EAP-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 VCE-00 NSAE-00 USIE-00 IIP-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /003W -------------- 637E15 071428Z /38 P 071411Z FEB 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0894 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000343 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER PARIS FOR NEARY LONDON FOR GURNEY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/12 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES ELECTION OBSERVATION, ELECTION CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00343 02 OF 02 071428Z PROSPECTS AND POST-ELECTION PLANNING WITH BRITISH OFFICIALS MDC VICTORY IN THE PROVINCE LESS THAN TWO YEARS LATER WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT TURNAROUND. END COMMENT.) ¶5. (C) IN A SEPARATE MEETING WITH THE AMBASSADOR ON FEBRUARY 5, COLTART, WHO HAS FREQUENTLY BEEN A PESSIMIST IN THE PAST, WAS QUITE BUOYANT. HE NOTED THAT THE MDC NOW HAD THE LIST OF 6 MILLION REGISTERED VOTERS, AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 700,000 FROM TWO YEARS AGO, THEREBY OBVIATING EARLIER FEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF VOTERS HAD BEEN DISENFRANCHISED AND INDICATING A HIGH INTENTION TO VOTE. COLTART STATED THAT THE SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE DISENFRANCHISED FOR DUAL CITIZENSHIP WAS COMPARATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT. THE MDC WAS UNDERTAKING TO DELIVER ITS CAMPAIGN MATERIAL TO EACH OF THE SIX MILLION REGISTERED VOTERS. INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE TO AN MDC GOVERNMENT -------------- ¶6. WITH HIS BRITISH INTERLOCUTORS, THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THAT AN MDC GOVERNMENT WOULD FACE A RANGE OF SERIOUS CHALLENGES AND WOULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, PARTICULARLY IN THE SHORT-TERM. HE NOTED THAT THE USG HAS DONE SOME THINKING ABOUT HOW WE CAN RESPOND QUICKLY TO A NEW MDC GOVERNMENT'S MOST CRITICAL NEEDS AND ASKED WHETHER THE UK HAS ENGAGED IN A SIMILAR PROCESS. DONNELLY NOTED THAT THE MDC HAS IDENTIFIED FIVE PRIORITY AREAS FOR ATTENTION DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD: SECURITY; THE ECONOMY; SOCIAL REHABILITATION (INCLUDING HIV/AIDS); GOOD GOVERNANCE (INCLUDING JUDICIAL REFORM, WALKING BACK ZANU-PF'S MORE REPRESSIVE LEGISLATION, AND CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM); AND LAND REFORM (ALTHOUGH THIS LATTER POINT, TSVANGIRAI TOLD CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00343 02 OF 02 071428Z DONNELLY, IS THE LEAST URGENT OF THE FIVE). POCOCK SAID THE UK IS LOOKING AT HOW IT COULD QUICKLY BOOST DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE "BACK TO WHERE IT SHOULD BE." IN ADDITION, THE UK IS PRESSING THE IFI'S TO BE PREPARED TO RESPOND AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE AND THE EU TO BE RESPONSIVE "UNDER THE COTONOU AGREEMENT." (NOTE: PRESUMABLY THE LATTER POINT REFERS TO A RESTORATION OF SIGNIFICANT ASSISTANCE LEVELS AND TRADE PRIVILEGES. END NOTE.) SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >