MDC PLANNING FOR TRANSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000315 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER PARIS FOR NEARY LONDON FOR GURNEY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/12 TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI MDC SUBJECT: MDC PLANNING FOR TRANSITION CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) THE MDC HAS ESTABLISHED A FOUR-PERSON TEAM THAT IS QUIETLY WORKING ON THE TRANSITION PERIOD, DRAWING UP AN ACTION PLAN FOR THE FIRST 100 DAYS, AND DEVISING A LIST OF CANDIDATES FOR KEY POSITIONS. IF ELECTED, MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI WOULD GIVE THE FINANCE MINISTRY PORTFOLIO TO PROMINENT ZIMBABWEAN BUSINESSMAN NIGEL CHANKIRA, WHILE MDC MP DAVID COLTART WOULD BE APPOINTED JUSTICE MINISTER AND MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER. IN AN INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT, RULING PARTY STALWART EDDISON ZVOBGO WOULD BE NAMED SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT IN EXCHANGE FOR HIS ENDORSEMENT OF TSVANGIRAI TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE ELECTION. TSVANGIRAI WOULD PREFER NOT TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT IF HE WINS, BUT WOULD INSTEAD FOCUS ON THE 30 NON-ELECTED MPS, APPOINTING HIS OWN PEOPLE TO 20 OF THOSE SLOTS AND EXPECTING THE REMAINING TEN CHIEFS TO VOTE WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DAY. THE MDC BELIEVES IT HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN WINNING THE SUPPORT OF TRADITIONAL LEADERS IN MASHONALAND CENTRAL AND MASHONALAND EAST -- LONG A ZANU- PF STRONGHOLD -- AND BELIEVES IT CAN WIN 50 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN THE FORMER AND 42-43 PERCENT IN THE LATTER. THE LEVEL OF VIOLENCE AGAINST MDC SUPPORTERS IS SUBSIDING IN MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY AS THE GOZ ANTICIPATES THE ARRIVAL OF INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS. END SUMMARY. CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00315 01 OF 02 051446Z MDC TRANSITION TEAM -------------- ¶2. (C) IN A FEBRUARY 5 CONVERSATION WITH POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF, THE MDC PRESIDENT'S SPECIAL ADVISOR, GANDI MUDZINGWA, SAID THE MDC HAS QUIETLY ESTABLISHED A FOUR-PERSON TRANSITION TEAM. THE GROUP IS IDENTIFYING KEY ISSUES FOR THE OPPOSITION PARTY TO FOCUS ON DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD, DRAWING UP A 100-DAY ACTION PLAN, AND DEVISING A LIST OF INDIVIDUALS WHO COULD SERVE IN IMPORTANT POSITIONS. THE TEAM IS LED BY IAN MAKONI, A LEADING HARARE BUSINESSMAN; BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS, A FELLOW AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE'S INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES AND ONE OF THIS COUNTRY'S MOST ASTUTE POLITICAL ANALYSTS; DR. RENEE LOWENSON, A CONSULTANT WHO HAS WORKED WITH THE ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF TRADE UNIONS (ZCTU) FOR MORE THAN TEN YEARS AND WHO WAS "IMMENSELY" HELPFUL IN SETTING UP THE MDC; AND DR. CHARLES HOVE, FORMERLY A SENIOR OFFICIAL AT THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE NOW LECTURING IN CONFLICT MANAGEMENT AT A SOUTH AFRICAN UNIVERSITY. MUDZINGWA WOULD NOT BE DRAWN ON THE SUBSTANCE OF THE GROUP'S RECOMMENDATIONS TO DATE, SAYING THEY ARE STILL VERY CLOSE HOLD. MDC CABINET -------------- ¶3. (C) ASKED WHETHER MDC PRESIDENT TSVANGIRAI HAS IDENTIFIED INDIVIDUALS TO SERVE IN HIS CABINET, MUDZINGWA SAID SEVERAL DECISIONS HAD BEEN MADE. NIGEL CHANAKIRA, CHAIRMAN OF KINGDOM FINANCIAL HOLDINGS -- ZIMBABWE'S MOST SUCCESSFUL INDIGENOUS MERCHANT BANK -- HAD AGREED TO ACCEPT THE FINANCE PORTFOLIO. MDC MP AND HUMAN RIGHTS LAWYER DAVID COLTART WOULD BE APPOINTED JUSTICE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00315 01 OF 02 051446Z MINISTER, WITH ONE IMPORTANT PROVISO. COLTART HAS DONE A LOT OF PREPARATORY WORK FOR ESTABLISHMENT OF A TRUTH AND JUSTICE COMMISSION AND WAS DETERMINED TO SEEK RETRIBUTION AGAINST THOSE RESPONSIBLE FOR ZIMBABWE'S CURRENT PLIGHT, ACCORDING TO MUDZINGWA. TSVANGIRAI IS CONCERNED THAT HAVING A WHITE ZIMBABWEAN LEADING THIS SIPDIS EFFORT WOULD SEND ALL THE WRONG SIGNALS, SO HE HAS QUIETLY DECIDED TO PLACE THE TRUTH AND JUSTICE COMMISSION UNDER PARLIAMENT'S AUTHORITY. (N.B. PLEASE STRICTLY PROTECT THIS LATTER POINT. TSVANGIRAI SHARED THIS INTENTION WITH MUDZINGWA IN CONFIDENCE AND SIPDIS HAS NOT YET HAD A CHANCE TO DISCUSS IT WITH COLTART.) WELSHMAN NCUBE, THE MDC'S SECRETARY-GENERAL, A PROFESSOR OF CONSTITUTIONAL LAW AND ONE OF THE PARTY'S INTELLECTUAL HEAVYWEIGHTS, WOULD LIKELY SERVE AS THE MINISTER OF HOME AFFAIRS. ZANU-PF MP EDDISON ZVOBGO, A LONGTIME RULING PARTY STALWART BUT STRONG CRITIC OF PRESIDENT MUGABE, WOULD BE APPOINTED SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT. IN EXCHANGE, ZVOBGO -- WHO REMAINS VERY INFLUENTIAL IN THE SOUTHERN PROVINCE OF MASVINGO -- HAS UNDERTAKEN TO ANNOUNCE PUBLICLY TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE ELECTION THAT HE WILL NOT VOTE FOR MUGABE, AND DECLARE THAT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI IS THE CANDIDATE BEST ABLE TO RESTORE PEACE AND PROSPERITY TO ZIMBABWE. (COMMENT: SUCH AN ENDORSEMENT COULD ENSURE THAT MASVINGO -- WHICH BOTH MAJOR PARTIES CONSIDER PIVOTAL TO THE ELECTION OUTCOME AND WHOSE RESIDENTS ARE CURRENTLY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES -- SWINGS FIRMLY INTO THE MDC CAMP. END COMMENT.) CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9553 PAGE 01 HARARE 00315 02 OF 02 051447Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 WHA-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /006W -------------- 624E61 051448Z /38 P 051431Z FEB 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0876 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY KINGSTON PRIORITY AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000315 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR FRAZER PARIS FOR NEARY LONDON FOR GURNEY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HARARE 00315 02 OF 02 051447Z E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/12 TAGS: PGOV PINR ZI MDC SUBJECT: MDC PLANNING FOR TRANSITION NOT NECESSARY TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT -------------- ¶4. (C) ASKED WHETHER TSVANGIRAI WOULD DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT UPON ASSUMING POWER, MUDZINGWA SAID SUCH A STEP WOULD BE UNNECESSARY. HE NOTED THAT THE MDC CURRENTLY HOLDS 56 SEATS IN THE 150-SEAT PARLIAMENT. INSTEAD OF CALLING A NEW ELECTION, TSVANGIRAI WOULD FOCUS ON THE 30 UNELECTED SEATS. HE WOULD COUNT ON THE TEN CHIEFS -- WHO ARE SELECTED BY OTHER CHIEFS -- TO SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DAY, WHILE REPLACING THE EIGHT GOVERNORS AND 12 NON- CONSTITUENCY MEMBERS WHO ARE APPOINTED DIRECTLY BY THE PRESIDENT. ADDING THOSE TWENTY SEATS TO THE 56 THE MDC ALREADY HOLDS WOULD GIVE THE PARTY A RAZOR-THIN MAJORITY. IN ADDITION, THE PARTY WOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS THE COURTS TO HEAR EXPEDITIOUSLY THE PENDING LEGAL CHALLENGES OF ZANU-PF VICTORIES IN 28 CONSTITUENCIES IN THE JUNE 2000 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. (COMMENT: AVOIDING THE DISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT WOULD ALLOW TSVANGIRAI TO PORTRAY HIMSELF AS A NEW KIND OF LEADER COMMITTED TO REDUCING THE CONSIDERABLE POWERS THAT HAVE ACCRUED TO THE ZIMBABWEAN PRESIDENCY. ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THE TEN CHIEFS WOULD VOTE WITH THE MDC, AND RELYING ON 76 MPS ALWAYS TO TOE THE PARTY LINE IS RISKY. IT MIGHT ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR AN MDC GOVERNMENT TO JUSTIFY TO THE ZIMBABWEAN PUBLIC ALLOWING ZANU-PF MPS WHO EMPLOYED VIOLENCE AND INTIMIDATION TO ENSURE THEIR OWN ELECTIONS -- SUCH AS CHINHOYI MP PHILIP CHIYANGWA AND MOUNT DARWIN SOUTH MP SAVIOUR "MIKE TYSON" KASUKUWERE -- TO RETAIN THEIR SEATS. END COMMENT.) CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 00315 02 OF 02 051447Z TRADITIONAL LEADERS SHIFTING THEIR ALLEGIANCES? -------------- -- ¶5. (C) MUDZINGWA REPORTED THAT TSVANGIRAI HAS BEEN MEETING DISCREETLY WITH TRADITIONAL LEADERS FROM MASHONALAND, LONG A RULING PARTY STRONGHOLD. IN THE MOST RECENT GATHERING -- IN HARARE THE WEEK OF JANUARY 28 -- A MAJORITY OF THE TRADITIONAL LEADERS FROM MASHONALAND CENTRAL PROVINCE TOLD TSVANGIRAI THEY WOULD NOT VOTE FOR MUGABE IN THE UPCOMING ELECTION OR TELL THEIR CONSTITUENTS TO DO SO. THE INROADS TSVANGIRAI HAS MADE WITH TRADITIONAL LEADERS IN A REGION THAT HAS BEEN DECLARED OFF-LIMITS TO THE OPPOSITION PARTY -- BY WAR VETERANS AND ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS -- HAS BUOYED THE MDC'S HOPES THAT IT CAN WIN APPROXIMATELY 50 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN MASHONALAND CENTRAL AND 42-43 PERCENT IN MASHONALAND EAST. ASKED WHETHER HE WAS ALSO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT MASHONALAND WEST, MUDZINGWA DEMURRED, SAYING THAT PROVINCE WAS MORE "PROBLEMATIC." (COMMENT: ZANU-PF HAS EXERTED CONSIDERABLE PRESSURE ON TRADITIONAL LEADERS -- WHO ARE ON THE GOVERNMENT PAYROLL -- TO GET THEIR CONSTITUENTS TO THE POLLING STATIONS ON ELECTION DAY. IF THE TRADITIONAL LEADERS IN MASHONALAND CENTRAL MAKE GOOD ON THEIR PLEDGE -- AND IF THE SENTIMENTS THEY REPORTEDLY EXPRESSED TO TSVANGIRAI ARE SHARED BY A GROWING NUMBER OF THEIR COUNTERPARTS IN OTHER REGIONS -- MUGABE COULD BE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE. THE MDC HAS CONSISTENTLY TOLD US THAT IT NEEDS TO GET BETWEEN 30-40 PERCENT OF THE VOTE IN MASHONALAND TO WIN. ANYTHING HIGHER THAN THAT WOULD LIKELY BE ICING ON THE CAKE. END COMMENT.) VIOLENCE SUBSIDING -------------- CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 00315 02 OF 02 051447Z ¶6. (C) MUDZINGWA TOLD US THAT THE LEVEL OF GOZ-SANCTIONED VIOLENCE AGAINST MDC SUPPORTERS HAD BEGUN TO DECLINE NOTICEABLY IN MANY AREAS OF THE COUNTRY, ALTHOUGH SERIOUS INCIDENTS CONTINUED TO OCCUR. (NOTE: THE MDC IS STILL INVESTIGATING RECENT REPORTS OF THE KILLING OF THREE OF ITS SUPPORTERS AND THE ABDUCTIONS OF FOUR OTHERS, AND WILL RELEASE DETAILS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.) SUCH A GENERAL DECLINE WAS PREDICTABLE, MUDZINGWA SAID, AS THE GOZ IS BACKING OFF IN PREPARATION FOR THE ARRIVAL OF INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVERS. HE ADDED THAT THE MDC INTENDS WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK TO SET UP AN ELECTION COMMAND CENTER, ONE OF WHOSE FUNCTIONS WILL BE TO INFORM OBSERVER DELEGATIONS AND RESIDENT DIPLOMATIC MISSIONS QUICKLY OF INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE, INTIMIDATION, AND ELECTORAL IRREGULARITIES. SULLIVAN CONFIDENTIAL >