TSVANGIRAI LEVELS ACCUSATIONS AGAINST BRITAIN AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 002829 SIPDIS LONDON FOR CGURNEY PARIS FOR CNEARY NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2012 TAGS: PGOV PREL ZI MDC SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI LEVELS ACCUSATIONS AGAINST BRITAIN AND SOUTH AFRICA Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington. Reasons: 1.5 ( B) and (D). ¶1. (C) In a move that could create quite a firestorm, Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai issued a press statement on December 18 accusing the British and South African governments of working in cahoots with certain elements of ZANU-PF to maintain the ruling party's hold on power. In his statement, Tsvangirai said "...a cabal within ZANU-PF, working with some businessmen, have hatched a plan to protect Mugabe and his regime, for political convenience, through a further militarization of Zimbabwe. One Colonel Dyke (sic) and his business associates are being used to promote an agenda that seeks to legitimize the rogue regime. The names of (Speaker of Parliament and ZANU-PF Secretary of Administration) Emmerson Mnangagwa and SIPDIS (Commander of the Defense Forces) General Zvinavashe keep on coming up in this dirty plan which we are told was endorsed by ZANU-PF, the British and the South Africans." Tsvangirai goes on to say that this effort is intended to be kick-started by a meeting between himself and Robert Mugabe outside the country, but warns that "the Anglo-South African plan will fail to take off if it remains predicated on the desire to legitimize the illegitimate Mugabe regime. ¶2. (C) Comment: Tsvangirai clearly has heard of efforts by several different parties to broker a political way forward and has assumed they are all part and parcel of the same initiative. It is unclear why he decided to shine the public spotlight on these efforts now. We surmise that he wanted to avoid being presented with a political solution that involved token MDC membership in a ZANU-PF government as a fait accompli, and being portrayed as the intransigent party for refusing to endorse such an approach. It will be interesting to see how the Zimbabwean and South African governments react to Tsvangirai's statement. What seems a likely consequence is that South Africa and other potential political brokers might pull back from peace-making efforts in the near-term. End Comment. South African efforts on Zimbabwe -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Prior to the issuance of Tsvangirai's statement, his senior advisor, Gandi Mudzingwa, received a call from President Mbeki's office the night of December 17, asking whether Tsvangirai was prepared to travel outside of Zimbabwe to meet with President Mugabe. The caller said the SAG could arrange for the temporary return of Tsvangirai's passport, seized when the MDC leader was charged with treason for allegedly planning Mugabe's assassination. Mudzingwa subsequently sought additional details from the intelligence chief at the South African High Commission in Harare, who said he was not fully briefed on this initiative. The South African intelligence officer, however, reported that Foreign Minister Zuma was planning a trip to Harare in the next week or two to meet with Tsvangirai and Emmerson Mnangagwa. ¶4. (C) Meanwhile, we know that Father Fidelis Mukonori, who has on several past occasions attempted to broker dialogue between President Mugabe and the MDC, has once again begun to feel out both sides on their willingness to talk. He has not, however, put a concrete proposal on the table. Mukonori had not spoken with senior MDC leaders in quite some time until contacting Mudzingwa to arrange a meeting on December ¶18. We will get a readout of that conversation and report it septel. SULLIVAN