ZCTU LEADERS ARRESTED IN ADVANCE OF FIZZLED

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002784 SIPDIS SENSITIVE NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JFRAZER LONDON FOR CGURNEY NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER PARIS FOR NEARY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON ELAB PHUM PGOV ZI SUBJECT: ZCTU LEADERS ARRESTED IN ADVANCE OF FIZZLED NCA/MDC-SPONSORED STAYAWAY REF: A. HARARE 02620 ¶B. HARARE 02726 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, NOT FOR INTERNET POSTING 1.(SBU) Summary. Reports indicate that eleven senior members of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) were arrested by Zimbabwean police the day before a planned mass-action stayaway which the ZCTU had not even endorsed. Participation in the stayaway has been sporadic -- possibly because the ZCTU failed to support the stayaway call, which originated from the leadership of the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Anecdotal reports indicate that while traffic on Harare streets is only marginally lighter than normal, at most only 25-30% of workers have actually heeded the call to stay home from work within the capital city, and 20% may have participated nationwide -- figures that may well prove optimistic. The ultimate success or failure of eventual mass action could depend upon the evolving situation of the ZCTU's detained leadership, who ironically chose not to support the abortive stayaway. End summary. ZCTU Leaders Pay the Political Price Despite Attempts to Distance Themselves -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Wellington Chibebe, secretary general of the ZCTU and a very recent IVP visitor to the US, along with ten other high-level ZCTU leaders, was picked up by the police late in the evening of December 9 at a labor seminar sponsored by the AFL-CIO's Solidarity Center. According to reports, the eleven were removed from the seminar by police although there is no indication that they were charged with any criminal activity. Attorneys are urgently attempting to locate the eleven as well as obtain their release through the courts. In typical GOZ fashion, the eleven detainees were not immediately taken to a police station or charged, although our contacts have heard unconfirmed reports that they are currently being kept in two separate police stations in the Mbare high-density area. Solidarity Center contacts state that attorneys have not been granted access to the detainees and have received no report on their condition. When (and if) charges are actually brought, the eleven detainees are likely to be charged with violating the repressive Public Order and Security Act (POSA). The ZCTU has been very wary of endorsing a mass-action stayaway without clear support from the rank-and-file membership, reftel b, and they have neither advised their membership to participate nor to flout the call for a stayaway. Despite this public neutrality, the GOZ has chosen the ZCTU as the most visible target of its official displeasure at the call for mass action. NCA Estimates 20% Nationwide Participation -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Dr. Lovemore Madhuku, chairperson of the NCA, confirmed that he was aware of the ZCTU arrests, and stated that he is currently in hiding due to reports that the GOZ is also searching for the NCA's leaders. Madhuku believes that they have achieved 25-30% participation in the stayaway among workers in the Harare area, although the response outside of Harare is believed to be much lower. Currently, the NCA's reports indicate 10% participation in Bulawayo and 20% participation in Mutare, Gweru and Masvingo. Overall, Madhuku estimates a 20% participation rate nationwide. ¶4. (SBU) Madhuku speculated on several causes which might have had an impact on participation. He stated that (as with the failed ZCTU stayaway in March) a lack of clear communication may have limited worker response. Madhuku also theorized that some employers may have refused to grant absence without pay, which could have dampened the enthusiasm of some workers in this harsh economic climate, especially as the expensive outlays of the annual holiday season approach. One strategy contemplated by the NCA was to have youths stand at commuter omnibus stops to prevent workers from boarding public transport. However, due to reported police presence at some bus stops this morning, that strategy apparently failed. There are unconfirmed reports of protests in some of the high density areas, including reports that a commuter omnibus was set on fire by youths in the Kuwadzana area. (Comment: Kuwadzana was the former seat of recently deceased MDC parliamentarian Learnmore Jongwe. This area, which will be strongly contested by ZANU-PF in the upcoming by-election, has been the recipient of massive political attention -- including reports of food distributions solely benefitting ZANU-PF cardholders -- in recent weeks. End comment.) Companies Report Little Impact -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Although many employers are reluctant to give much information over the phone due to fears of GOZ retribution, several firms with American ties report little impact from the stayaway. While most companies are open for business, several have reported that some workers were late but ascribe this to the ever-present transport difficulties. Street Traffic Lighter, Security Presence Heavier than Usual -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The traffic on the streets -- both pedestrian and vehicular -- is somewhat lighter than usual, although there are several alternative explanations. Zimbabwean schools are not in session, which generally means less omnibus traffic. In the downtown area, anecdotal reports indicate that in areas where parking spaces were completely occupied by 0830 yesterday morning, only about 2/3 were occupied at the same time this morning. While some observers attribute this to the fuel shortage rather than participation in the stayaway, others note that those who drive private vehicles -- managers and professionals -- would be less likely to support a mass action stayaway than the rank-and-file workers, who are more likely to commute via commuter omnibus. ¶7. (SBU) There is an increased military and police presence on the streets, although even the MDC concedes that this is "nothing too significant." Laboff and visiting Deskoff, returning from an offsite meeting, noticed a passing transport truck loaded with police decked out in riot gear. Despite the increased security presence, there have been no reports of confrontations between security forces and stayaway supporters in the business districts. However, two separate sources have reported confrontations with police in Chitungwiza and Mabvuku, high-density areas surrounding Harare, in which people stoned vehicles including public transport buses. Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Consistent with previous expectations, see reftels a and b, there was little hope of widespread participation in this stayaway without massive buy-in from labor groups as well as other members of civic society. Although the NCA and the MDC were hoping for support from the ZCTU, the labor organization has never publicly endorsed the calls for mass action optimistically scheduled for this week. The ZCTU has been very reluctant to call for participation in an action which was not widely communicated and clearly destined to succeed. The GOZ's actions in pre-emptively arresting the ZCTU's leadership, however, speak loudly to the nervousness of ZANU-PF. These arrests, ironically, may well spur the ZCTU to a more aggressive response than they would otherwise have chosen. With eleven top ZCTU elected officials arrested despite their failure to endorse a mass stayaway, the GOZ may have forced the ZCTU into a corner from which calls for mass action are the only legitimate response. WHITEHEAD