UNRESREP PAINTS BLEAK PICTURE OF THE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000201

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR AF; ALSO FOR AF/S

USAID/W FOR AFR/SA HOWARD, WILLIAMS AND HAGELMAN; AFR/SD
FOR WHELAN; BHR/FFP FOR GEORTZ; BHR/OFDA FOR BRYAN AND
MARX

GENEVA PLEASE PASS TO UNOCHA, IFRC

ROME PLEASE PASS FODAG
PRETORIA PLEASE PASS TO USDA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM EAGR EAID ZI
SUBJECT: UNRESREP PAINTS BLEAK PICTURE OF THE
SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE


THIS MESSAGE IS UNCLASSIFIED BUT SENSITIVE AND SHOULD BE
HANDLED ACCORDINGLY; NOT SUITABLE FOR INTERNET
DISSEMINATION.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. AT THE INVITATION OF UNDP RESREP
VICTOR ANGELO, THE DONOR COMMUNITY HELD ITS FIRST
COORDINATING MEETING OF 2002 AT THE UNDP OFFICES.
ANGELO, WHO NORMALLY SEEKS TO INTERPRET EVENTS IN A
POSITIVE LIGHT, WAS PARTICULARLY DOWNBEAT. ON
ELECTIONS, HE SAID THAT THERE NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE
ANY ROLE FOR THE UN. ON THE LAND ISSUE, THE UNDP REPORT
REMAINS UNCLEARED ON THE UNSYG'S DESK. IN THE MEANTIME,
THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF ZIMBABWE IS LURCHING TOWARD
DISASTER. THE RELATED HUMANITARIAN RELIEF INITIATIVE IS
OFF THE GROUND BUT FAR BEHIND THE CURVE IN BRINGING IN
ADEQUATE FOOD STOCKS IN TIME TO AVOID SHORTAGES. ABOUT
THE ONLY GOOD NEWS WAS THAT, AFTER INITIAL DALLYING, GOZ
EXPERTS HAVE GIVEN AN 8,400 MT SHIPMENT OF U.S.-SOURCE
FORTIFIED CORN MEAL (FCM) IN DAR ES SALAAM A CLEAN BILL
OF PHYTOSANITARY HEALTH. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) AFTER INTRODUCING THE NEWLY ARRIVED UN
HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS OFFICER AND DISTRIBUTING THE
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 HARARE 00201 01 OF 03 221340Z
UNSYG'S STATEMENT ON ZIMBABWE, ANGELO LAUNCHED INTO A
DESCRIPTION OF WHERE THINGS STAND, FROM HIS PERSPECTIVE.

--------------
ELECTIONS
--------------


3. (U) ANGELO HAD NO GOOD NEWS ON THIS FRONT. HE SAID
THAT THE CONTROVERSIAL AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL LAW
HAD BEEN FURTHER AMENDED BUT WERE STILL FLAWED. THE
DRAFT BILL WOULD BE REINTRODUCED AS SOON AS PARLIAMENT
CONVENED (AS HAS REPORTEDLY HAPPENED). THE REGISTRAR
GENERAL HAS PULLED BACK AN EARLIER REQUEST TO UNDP TO
SUPPLY TRANSLUCENT BALLOT BOXES. THE UN IS VERY
CONCERNED ABOUT THE LACK OF PLANNING FOR VOTER EDUCATION
IN RURAL AREAS, AS WELL AS TRAINING FOR CIVIL SERVANTS
THAT WILL PRESUMABLY SERVE AS ELECTION MONITORS. THE
NUMBER OF MOBILE VOTING STATIONS UNDER DISCUSSION WAS
WORRISOME, AND THE LACK OF OPPOSITION ACCESS TO PUBLIC
MEDIA IS UNCHANGED.


4. (SBU) ANGELO SAID THAT HE HAD STRESSED TO THE GOZ
INTERLOCUTORS THAT THERE WERE MEANINGFUL ELECTORAL
STANDARDS THE GOZ COULD ADOPT, INCLUDING THOSE OF SADC-
PF, AND THAT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS SHOULD BE INVITED
WELL IN ADVANCE OF VOTING. HE CONFIRMED THAT THE UN HAS
NOT YET BEEN INVITED TO OBSERVE AND ADDED THAT IT WAS
TOO LATE TO BECOME INVOLVED EVEN IF AN INVITATION WERE
FORTHCOMING. ON THE QUESTION OF NATIONAL OBSERVERS, HE
SAID THAT THE NUMBER 16,000 HAS BEEN BANDIED ABOUT. THE
KEY TO ACTUAL NUMBERS WOULD BE THE FEE CHARGED, SINCE
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 04 HARARE 00201 01 OF 03 221340Z
THE HIGHER THE FEE IMPOSED, THE FEWER THE OBSERVERS.

--------------
THE LAND ISSUE
--------------


5. (SBU) ANGELO ANNOUNCED THAT THE REPORT FROM THE
DECEMBER UNDP LAND MISSION HASS NOT BEEN "POLITICALLY"
CLEARED BY THE UNSYG, AND THUS HE COULD NOT DISCUSS
THIS. ANGELO ADDED THAT HE EXPECTED THE REPORT TO COME
OUT AT THE END OF JANUARY. HE SAID THAT THE ONE FINDING
HE COULD SHARE WAS THAT THE PRESENT PROCESS OF LAND
REFORM IS NOT SUSTAINABLE -- IT MUST BE REVISITED. IF
IMPLEMENTED AS NOW PLANNED, THE "LAND REFORM" WOULD
REQUIRE GOZ FINANCING OF ZIMBABWE DOLLARS 80 BILLION
ANNUALLY OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, A BUDGETARY
IMPOSSIBILITY.


6. (SBU) AFTER REVIEWING THE GLOBAL NUMBER OF ARTICLE 5
AND ARTICLE 8 LAND ACQUISITION NOTICES ISSUED, ANGELO
OBSERVED THAT THE 55,000 A2 APPLICATIONS APPROVED (FOR
INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL FARMERS) WAS MISLEADING, SINCE
ONLY 10,260 OF THESE HAD RECEIVED LAND. HE TERMED

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED PTO8196

PAGE 01 HARARE 00201 02 OF 03 221341Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00
DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 OIGO-00 UTED-00
FDRE-01 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00
OIC-02 IRM-00 SS-00 TEST-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00
SAS-00 /005W
-------------- 5B2D84 221341Z /38
P 221332Z JAN 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0756
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY
USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000201

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR AF; ALSO FOR AF/S

USAID/W FOR AFR/SA HOWARD, WILLIAMS AND HAGELMAN; AFR/SD
FOR WHELAN; BHR/FFP FOR GEORTZ; BHR/OFDA FOR BRYAN AND
MARX

GENEVA PLEASE PASS TO UNOCHA, IFRC

ROME PLEASE PASS FODAG
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 HARARE 00201 02 OF 03 221341Z

PRETORIA PLEASE PASS TO USDA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM EAGR EAID ZI
SUBJECT: UNRESREP PAINTS BLEAK PICTURE OF THE
SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE

REPORTS IN THE GOZ PRESS OF HAVING SEIZED MORE THAN
30,000 MT OF MAIZE "A LIE." THE ACTUAL FIGURE WAS NEAR
10,000 MT, AS THE GRAIN MARKETING BOARD AGENTS HAD
DISCOVERED FAR LESS HOLDINGS ON COMMERCIAL FARMS THAN
ANTICIPATED. ANGELO SAID THAT THE GOZ HAD PUT A LEGAL
VENEER ON THE SEIZURES BY ISSUING VIRTUALLY UNNOTICED ON
DECEMBER 28 STATUTORY INSTRUMENT 387 OF 2001. THIS
REQUIRED ALL COMMERCIAL PRODUCERS OF MAIZE/WHEAT IN THE
NAME OF NATIONAL INTEREST TO DELIVER THESE CEREALS FOR
SALE TO THE GMB WITHIN FOURTEEN DAYS OF HARVESTING.
ANGELO SAID THAT THE GMB CLAIM OF HOLDING A 50,000 MT
STOCK WAS PROBABLY UNFOUNDED. THERE WAS PROBABLY ENOUGH
GRAIN FOR 15 DAYS OF TOTAL CONSUMPTION COUNTRYWIDE, NOT
COUNTING THE NEEDS OF LIVESTOCK.


7. (SBU) ANGELO SHARED SOME DRAMATIC FIGURES ON THE
DECLINE IN PRODUCTION. TOTAL MAIZE PRODUCTION FOR THIS
YEAR MIGHT BE LESS THAN ONE MILLION TONS, OR
APPROXIMATELY HALF OF ZIMBABWE'S REQUIREMENT. DESPITE
OPTIMISTIC PREDICTIONS THAT TOBACCO PRODUCTION WOULD
REACH 150,000 MT, THE UN PROJECTS A 30-40% SHORTFALL AND
AN EVEN GREATER FOREX CRUNCH. BECAUSE GRAIN STOCKS
INTENDED FOR LIVESTOCK IS BEING SEIZED, FARMERS HAVE
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 HARARE 00201 02 OF 03 221341Z
REDUCED THEIR HERDS BY AN ESTIMATED 40-45 PERCENT. THE
NUMBERS FOR POULTRY AND SWINE, WHICH CANNOT BE TURNED
OUT TO PASTURE, ARE EVEN STARKER. ANGELO SCOFFED AT
REPORTS THAT THE GOZ HAD BROKERED GRAIN PURCHASES IN THE
AMERICAS. HE SAID THEY ARE TRYING TO IMPORT 50,000 MT
FROM SOUTH AFRICA THANKS TO A BUSINESSMAN WITH CLOSE
LINKS TO MUGABE WHO HAS OFFERED TO FINANCE THE PURCHASE.
ANGELO SAID THAT THE BUSINESSMAN HAS NO EXPERIENCE IN
THIS AREA AND THAT THE LONG DELIVERY TIME -- THE
RAILWAYS ARE CONGESTED AND EACH TRUCK CAN HAUL ONLY A 35
MT LOAD -- MEANS THAT IT WILL TAKE 10 TO 15 WEEKS TO
DELIVER ANY APPRECIABLY AMOUNT.


8. (U) THE SITUATION FOR COMMERCIAL FARM WORKERS IS
ALSO WORSENING. ANGELO SAID THAT A MINIMUM OF 5,570
FAMILIES HAVE BEEN DISPOSSESSED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF
DECEMBER, WITH THE ACTUAL FIGURE POSSIBLY REACHING
10,000. MOST HAD BECOME UTTERLY DESTITUTE.


9. (SBU) ANGELO STRESSED THAT THE UN BELIEVES THERE IS
STILL TIME FOR THE RIGHT POLICIES TO YIELD A RAPID TURN
AROUND. THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ESPECIALLY WOULD REACT
RAPIDLY TO POLICY CHANGE. HE SAID THAT THE PRESENT
CROPPING SEASON WOULD BE A BUST, BUT EVEN THE NATIONAL
CATTLE HERD COULD BE RESTORED TO NORMAL LEVELS WITHIN
THREE YEARS IF THE RIGHT POLICIES ARE PUT IN PLACE. HE
CONCLUDED THAT IF THERE IS NO POLICY CHANGE, HOWEVER,
ECONOMIC COLLAPSE COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS NEXT MAY.

--------------
HUMANITARIAN SITUATION
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 04 HARARE 00201 02 OF 03 221341Z
--------------


10. (U) ANGELO SAID THAT THE WFP HAS BEGUN TO TAKE
DELIVERIES OF 6,400 MT OF MAIZE FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO
ADDRESS THE NEEDS OF THE MOST VULNERABLE. HE SAID THAT
"ANOTHER DONOR" (THE U.S.) HAS DELIVERED AN ADDITIONAL
8,400 MT OF MAIZE MEAL TO DAR ES SALAAM. HE FAULTED THE
GOZ FOR DRAGGING ITS FEET BUT SAID THAT HE WAS PLEASED
TO ANNOUNCE THAT TWO GOZ EXPERTS, FLOWN TO DAR ES SALAAM
ON UN TICKETS, HAD INSPECTED THE CORN MEAL AND GIVEN IT
A CLEAN BILL OF HEALTH. ANGELO EXPECTED AN IMPORT
PERMIT TO BE ISSUED LATER THE SAME DAY AND SAID THAT THE
FOOD WOULD IMMEDIATELY START MOVING TO LUSAKA BY RAIL,
THEN TRUCKED INTO ZIMBABWE FOR DISTRIBUTION. THE FIRST
DELIVERIES WERE EXPECTED IN MID-FEBRUARY. UNDP HAD
RECEIVED SOME MONEY AND OTHER PLEDGES, BUT THESE FELL
FAR SHORT OF THE APPEAL.

--------------
Q AND A SESSION
--------------

-- (U) THE U.S. DCM OBSERVED THAT ANGELO HAD NOT

UNCLASSIFIED

UNCLASSIFIED PTO8197

PAGE 01 HARARE 00201 03 OF 03 221341Z
ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00
DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 OIGO-00 UTED-00
FDRE-01 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00
OIC-02 IRM-00 SS-00 TEST-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00
SAS-00 /005W
-------------- 5B2D88 221341Z /38
P 221332Z JAN 02
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0757
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY
USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000201

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR AF; ALSO FOR AF/S

USAID/W FOR AFR/SA HOWARD, WILLIAMS AND HAGELMAN; AFR/SD
FOR WHELAN; BHR/FFP FOR GEORTZ; BHR/OFDA FOR BRYAN AND
MARX

GENEVA PLEASE PASS TO UNOCHA, IFRC

ROME PLEASE PASS FODAG
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 02 HARARE 00201 03 OF 03 221341Z

PRETORIA PLEASE PASS TO USDA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM EAGR EAID ZI
SUBJECT: UNRESREP PAINTS BLEAK PICTURE OF THE
SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE

PROVIDED ANY PROJECTION FOR THE 2002 WHEAT HARVEST, A
STAPLE FOODSTUFF IN URBAN AREAS. ANGELO REPLIED THAT
THE FIGURE WAS FUZZY, BUT THE REALITY WAS THAT THERE WAS
VIRTUALLY NO LAND PREPARATION TAKING PLACE ON COMMERCIAL
FARMS, THE MAJOR SOURCE OF WHEAT PRODUCTION.

-- (U) THE EU DELEGATE ASKED A) THE LOCATION OF
DISPLACED FARM WORKERS B) HOW LONG THE WFP FOOD STOCKS
WOULD LAST AND C) HOW SECURE WAS THE DISTRIBUTION.
ANGELO SAID THAT IT WAS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE
ALL THE DISPOSSESSED FARM WORKERS WERE. THE WFP
REPRESENTATIVE SAID THAT WFP DISTRIBUTIONS WOULD COVER
TWO MONTHS OF ASSISTANCE TO THE MOST VULNERABLE ONLY.
HE ADMITTED THAT THE DISTRIBUTION WAS A TRICKY EXERCISE.
THE WFP HAD ORGANIZED WORKSHOPS TO TEACH IMPLEMENTING
PARTNERS HOW TO DETERMINE BENEFICIARY SELECTION. HE
EXPRESSED FULL CONFIDENCE THAT WFP IS FULLY IN CONTROL
OF THE DISTRIBUTION AND MONITORING PHASES.

-- (U) THE AUSTRALIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER NOTED THAT
JOURNALISTS FROM AUSTRALIAN PUBLIC RADIO HAD BEEN
REFUSED VISAS TO VISIT ZIMBABWE. HE READ OFF PLUMMETING
GRAIN PRODUCTION STATISTICS, SAID THAT IN CANBERRA'S
UNCLASSIFIED

PAGE 03 HARARE 00201 03 OF 03 221341Z
VIEW THE CONDITIONS FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS DO NOT
EXIST, AND SAID THAT AUSTRALIA WAS HOLDING BACK ON ANY
RESPONSE TO THE HUMANITARIAN APPEAL.

-- (U) THE UK HIGH COMMISSIONER SAID THAT GOZ
ACCUSATIONS THAT HMG, WESTMINSTER FOUNDATION, OR BBC ARE
FUNDING OR SUPPORTING SW AFRICA BROADCASTS ARE
UNFOUNDED. HE ADDED THAT THESE BROADCASTS ORIGINATE IN
LONDON AND ARE NOT INCITING OF VIOLENCE, THEN GOT A
LAUGH BY INVITING HIS COLLEAGUES TO TUNE IN AT 6145 ON
THEIR SW DIAL. _

SULLIVAN

UNCLASSIFIED

>