UNRESREP PAINTS BLEAK PICTURE OF THE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000201 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF; ALSO FOR AF/S USAID/W FOR AFR/SA HOWARD, WILLIAMS AND HAGELMAN; AFR/SD FOR WHELAN; BHR/FFP FOR GEORTZ; BHR/OFDA FOR BRYAN AND MARX GENEVA PLEASE PASS TO UNOCHA, IFRC ROME PLEASE PASS FODAG PRETORIA PLEASE PASS TO USDA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM EAGR EAID ZI SUBJECT: UNRESREP PAINTS BLEAK PICTURE OF THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE THIS MESSAGE IS UNCLASSIFIED BUT SENSITIVE AND SHOULD BE HANDLED ACCORDINGLY; NOT SUITABLE FOR INTERNET DISSEMINATION. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. AT THE INVITATION OF UNDP RESREP VICTOR ANGELO, THE DONOR COMMUNITY HELD ITS FIRST COORDINATING MEETING OF 2002 AT THE UNDP OFFICES. ANGELO, WHO NORMALLY SEEKS TO INTERPRET EVENTS IN A POSITIVE LIGHT, WAS PARTICULARLY DOWNBEAT. ON ELECTIONS, HE SAID THAT THERE NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE ANY ROLE FOR THE UN. ON THE LAND ISSUE, THE UNDP REPORT REMAINS UNCLEARED ON THE UNSYG'S DESK. IN THE MEANTIME, THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF ZIMBABWE IS LURCHING TOWARD DISASTER. THE RELATED HUMANITARIAN RELIEF INITIATIVE IS OFF THE GROUND BUT FAR BEHIND THE CURVE IN BRINGING IN ADEQUATE FOOD STOCKS IN TIME TO AVOID SHORTAGES. ABOUT THE ONLY GOOD NEWS WAS THAT, AFTER INITIAL DALLYING, GOZ EXPERTS HAVE GIVEN AN 8,400 MT SHIPMENT OF U.S.-SOURCE FORTIFIED CORN MEAL (FCM) IN DAR ES SALAAM A CLEAN BILL OF PHYTOSANITARY HEALTH. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) AFTER INTRODUCING THE NEWLY ARRIVED UN HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS OFFICER AND DISTRIBUTING THE UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 HARARE 00201 01 OF 03 221340Z UNSYG'S STATEMENT ON ZIMBABWE, ANGELO LAUNCHED INTO A DESCRIPTION OF WHERE THINGS STAND, FROM HIS PERSPECTIVE. -------------- ELECTIONS -------------- ¶3. (U) ANGELO HAD NO GOOD NEWS ON THIS FRONT. HE SAID THAT THE CONTROVERSIAL AMENDMENTS TO THE ELECTORAL LAW HAD BEEN FURTHER AMENDED BUT WERE STILL FLAWED. THE DRAFT BILL WOULD BE REINTRODUCED AS SOON AS PARLIAMENT CONVENED (AS HAS REPORTEDLY HAPPENED). THE REGISTRAR GENERAL HAS PULLED BACK AN EARLIER REQUEST TO UNDP TO SUPPLY TRANSLUCENT BALLOT BOXES. THE UN IS VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE LACK OF PLANNING FOR VOTER EDUCATION IN RURAL AREAS, AS WELL AS TRAINING FOR CIVIL SERVANTS THAT WILL PRESUMABLY SERVE AS ELECTION MONITORS. THE NUMBER OF MOBILE VOTING STATIONS UNDER DISCUSSION WAS WORRISOME, AND THE LACK OF OPPOSITION ACCESS TO PUBLIC MEDIA IS UNCHANGED. ¶4. (SBU) ANGELO SAID THAT HE HAD STRESSED TO THE GOZ INTERLOCUTORS THAT THERE WERE MEANINGFUL ELECTORAL STANDARDS THE GOZ COULD ADOPT, INCLUDING THOSE OF SADC- PF, AND THAT INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS SHOULD BE INVITED WELL IN ADVANCE OF VOTING. HE CONFIRMED THAT THE UN HAS NOT YET BEEN INVITED TO OBSERVE AND ADDED THAT IT WAS TOO LATE TO BECOME INVOLVED EVEN IF AN INVITATION WERE FORTHCOMING. ON THE QUESTION OF NATIONAL OBSERVERS, HE SAID THAT THE NUMBER 16,000 HAS BEEN BANDIED ABOUT. THE KEY TO ACTUAL NUMBERS WOULD BE THE FEE CHARGED, SINCE UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 HARARE 00201 01 OF 03 221340Z THE HIGHER THE FEE IMPOSED, THE FEWER THE OBSERVERS. -------------- THE LAND ISSUE -------------- ¶5. (SBU) ANGELO ANNOUNCED THAT THE REPORT FROM THE DECEMBER UNDP LAND MISSION HASS NOT BEEN "POLITICALLY" CLEARED BY THE UNSYG, AND THUS HE COULD NOT DISCUSS THIS. ANGELO ADDED THAT HE EXPECTED THE REPORT TO COME OUT AT THE END OF JANUARY. HE SAID THAT THE ONE FINDING HE COULD SHARE WAS THAT THE PRESENT PROCESS OF LAND REFORM IS NOT SUSTAINABLE -- IT MUST BE REVISITED. IF IMPLEMENTED AS NOW PLANNED, THE "LAND REFORM" WOULD REQUIRE GOZ FINANCING OF ZIMBABWE DOLLARS 80 BILLION ANNUALLY OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, A BUDGETARY IMPOSSIBILITY. ¶6. (SBU) AFTER REVIEWING THE GLOBAL NUMBER OF ARTICLE 5 AND ARTICLE 8 LAND ACQUISITION NOTICES ISSUED, ANGELO OBSERVED THAT THE 55,000 A2 APPLICATIONS APPROVED (FOR INDIGENOUS COMMERCIAL FARMERS) WAS MISLEADING, SINCE ONLY 10,260 OF THESE HAD RECEIVED LAND. HE TERMED UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PTO8196 PAGE 01 HARARE 00201 02 OF 03 221341Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 OIGO-00 UTED-00 FDRE-01 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 IRM-00 SS-00 TEST-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W -------------- 5B2D84 221341Z /38 P 221332Z JAN 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0756 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 000201 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF; ALSO FOR AF/S USAID/W FOR AFR/SA HOWARD, WILLIAMS AND HAGELMAN; AFR/SD FOR WHELAN; BHR/FFP FOR GEORTZ; BHR/OFDA FOR BRYAN AND MARX GENEVA PLEASE PASS TO UNOCHA, IFRC ROME PLEASE PASS FODAG UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 HARARE 00201 02 OF 03 221341Z PRETORIA PLEASE PASS TO USDA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM EAGR EAID ZI SUBJECT: UNRESREP PAINTS BLEAK PICTURE OF THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE REPORTS IN THE GOZ PRESS OF HAVING SEIZED MORE THAN 30,000 MT OF MAIZE "A LIE." THE ACTUAL FIGURE WAS NEAR 10,000 MT, AS THE GRAIN MARKETING BOARD AGENTS HAD DISCOVERED FAR LESS HOLDINGS ON COMMERCIAL FARMS THAN ANTICIPATED. ANGELO SAID THAT THE GOZ HAD PUT A LEGAL VENEER ON THE SEIZURES BY ISSUING VIRTUALLY UNNOTICED ON DECEMBER 28 STATUTORY INSTRUMENT 387 OF 2001. THIS REQUIRED ALL COMMERCIAL PRODUCERS OF MAIZE/WHEAT IN THE NAME OF NATIONAL INTEREST TO DELIVER THESE CEREALS FOR SALE TO THE GMB WITHIN FOURTEEN DAYS OF HARVESTING. ANGELO SAID THAT THE GMB CLAIM OF HOLDING A 50,000 MT STOCK WAS PROBABLY UNFOUNDED. THERE WAS PROBABLY ENOUGH GRAIN FOR 15 DAYS OF TOTAL CONSUMPTION COUNTRYWIDE, NOT COUNTING THE NEEDS OF LIVESTOCK. ¶7. (SBU) ANGELO SHARED SOME DRAMATIC FIGURES ON THE DECLINE IN PRODUCTION. TOTAL MAIZE PRODUCTION FOR THIS YEAR MIGHT BE LESS THAN ONE MILLION TONS, OR APPROXIMATELY HALF OF ZIMBABWE'S REQUIREMENT. DESPITE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTIONS THAT TOBACCO PRODUCTION WOULD REACH 150,000 MT, THE UN PROJECTS A 30-40% SHORTFALL AND AN EVEN GREATER FOREX CRUNCH. BECAUSE GRAIN STOCKS INTENDED FOR LIVESTOCK IS BEING SEIZED, FARMERS HAVE UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 HARARE 00201 02 OF 03 221341Z REDUCED THEIR HERDS BY AN ESTIMATED 40-45 PERCENT. THE NUMBERS FOR POULTRY AND SWINE, WHICH CANNOT BE TURNED OUT TO PASTURE, ARE EVEN STARKER. ANGELO SCOFFED AT REPORTS THAT THE GOZ HAD BROKERED GRAIN PURCHASES IN THE AMERICAS. HE SAID THEY ARE TRYING TO IMPORT 50,000 MT FROM SOUTH AFRICA THANKS TO A BUSINESSMAN WITH CLOSE LINKS TO MUGABE WHO HAS OFFERED TO FINANCE THE PURCHASE. ANGELO SAID THAT THE BUSINESSMAN HAS NO EXPERIENCE IN THIS AREA AND THAT THE LONG DELIVERY TIME -- THE RAILWAYS ARE CONGESTED AND EACH TRUCK CAN HAUL ONLY A 35 MT LOAD -- MEANS THAT IT WILL TAKE 10 TO 15 WEEKS TO DELIVER ANY APPRECIABLY AMOUNT. ¶8. (U) THE SITUATION FOR COMMERCIAL FARM WORKERS IS ALSO WORSENING. ANGELO SAID THAT A MINIMUM OF 5,570 FAMILIES HAVE BEEN DISPOSSESSED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER, WITH THE ACTUAL FIGURE POSSIBLY REACHING 10,000. MOST HAD BECOME UTTERLY DESTITUTE. ¶9. (SBU) ANGELO STRESSED THAT THE UN BELIEVES THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE RIGHT POLICIES TO YIELD A RAPID TURN AROUND. THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ESPECIALLY WOULD REACT RAPIDLY TO POLICY CHANGE. HE SAID THAT THE PRESENT CROPPING SEASON WOULD BE A BUST, BUT EVEN THE NATIONAL CATTLE HERD COULD BE RESTORED TO NORMAL LEVELS WITHIN THREE YEARS IF THE RIGHT POLICIES ARE PUT IN PLACE. HE CONCLUDED THAT IF THERE IS NO POLICY CHANGE, HOWEVER, ECONOMIC COLLAPSE COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS NEXT MAY. -------------- HUMANITARIAN SITUATION UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 04 HARARE 00201 02 OF 03 221341Z -------------- ¶10. (U) ANGELO SAID THAT THE WFP HAS BEGUN TO TAKE DELIVERIES OF 6,400 MT OF MAIZE FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO ADDRESS THE NEEDS OF THE MOST VULNERABLE. HE SAID THAT "ANOTHER DONOR" (THE U.S.) HAS DELIVERED AN ADDITIONAL 8,400 MT OF MAIZE MEAL TO DAR ES SALAAM. HE FAULTED THE GOZ FOR DRAGGING ITS FEET BUT SAID THAT HE WAS PLEASED TO ANNOUNCE THAT TWO GOZ EXPERTS, FLOWN TO DAR ES SALAAM ON UN TICKETS, HAD INSPECTED THE CORN MEAL AND GIVEN IT A CLEAN BILL OF HEALTH. ANGELO EXPECTED AN IMPORT PERMIT TO BE ISSUED LATER THE SAME DAY AND SAID THAT THE FOOD WOULD IMMEDIATELY START MOVING TO LUSAKA BY RAIL, THEN TRUCKED INTO ZIMBABWE FOR DISTRIBUTION. THE FIRST DELIVERIES WERE EXPECTED IN MID-FEBRUARY. UNDP HAD RECEIVED SOME MONEY AND OTHER PLEDGES, BUT THESE FELL FAR SHORT OF THE APPEAL. -------------- Q AND A SESSION -------------- -- (U) THE U.S. DCM OBSERVED THAT ANGELO HAD NOT UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED PTO8197 PAGE 01 HARARE 00201 03 OF 03 221341Z ACTION AF-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 OIGO-00 UTED-00 FDRE-01 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 OIC-02 IRM-00 SS-00 TEST-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /005W -------------- 5B2D88 221341Z /38 P 221332Z JAN 02 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0757 INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 000201 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF; ALSO FOR AF/S USAID/W FOR AFR/SA HOWARD, WILLIAMS AND HAGELMAN; AFR/SD FOR WHELAN; BHR/FFP FOR GEORTZ; BHR/OFDA FOR BRYAN AND MARX GENEVA PLEASE PASS TO UNOCHA, IFRC ROME PLEASE PASS FODAG UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 02 HARARE 00201 03 OF 03 221341Z PRETORIA PLEASE PASS TO USDA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM EAGR EAID ZI SUBJECT: UNRESREP PAINTS BLEAK PICTURE OF THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE PROVIDED ANY PROJECTION FOR THE 2002 WHEAT HARVEST, A STAPLE FOODSTUFF IN URBAN AREAS. ANGELO REPLIED THAT THE FIGURE WAS FUZZY, BUT THE REALITY WAS THAT THERE WAS VIRTUALLY NO LAND PREPARATION TAKING PLACE ON COMMERCIAL FARMS, THE MAJOR SOURCE OF WHEAT PRODUCTION. -- (U) THE EU DELEGATE ASKED A) THE LOCATION OF DISPLACED FARM WORKERS B) HOW LONG THE WFP FOOD STOCKS WOULD LAST AND C) HOW SECURE WAS THE DISTRIBUTION. ANGELO SAID THAT IT WAS HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE ALL THE DISPOSSESSED FARM WORKERS WERE. THE WFP REPRESENTATIVE SAID THAT WFP DISTRIBUTIONS WOULD COVER TWO MONTHS OF ASSISTANCE TO THE MOST VULNERABLE ONLY. HE ADMITTED THAT THE DISTRIBUTION WAS A TRICKY EXERCISE. THE WFP HAD ORGANIZED WORKSHOPS TO TEACH IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS HOW TO DETERMINE BENEFICIARY SELECTION. HE EXPRESSED FULL CONFIDENCE THAT WFP IS FULLY IN CONTROL OF THE DISTRIBUTION AND MONITORING PHASES. -- (U) THE AUSTRALIAN HIGH COMMISSIONER NOTED THAT JOURNALISTS FROM AUSTRALIAN PUBLIC RADIO HAD BEEN REFUSED VISAS TO VISIT ZIMBABWE. HE READ OFF PLUMMETING GRAIN PRODUCTION STATISTICS, SAID THAT IN CANBERRA'S UNCLASSIFIED PAGE 03 HARARE 00201 03 OF 03 221341Z VIEW THE CONDITIONS FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS DO NOT EXIST, AND SAID THAT AUSTRALIA WAS HOLDING BACK ON ANY RESPONSE TO THE HUMANITARIAN APPEAL. -- (U) THE UK HIGH COMMISSIONER SAID THAT GOZ ACCUSATIONS THAT HMG, WESTMINSTER FOUNDATION, OR BBC ARE FUNDING OR SUPPORTING SW AFRICA BROADCASTS ARE UNFOUNDED. HE ADDED THAT THESE BROADCASTS ORIGINATE IN LONDON AND ARE NOT INCITING OF VIOLENCE, THEN GOT A LAUGH BY INVITING HIS COLLEAGUES TO TUNE IN AT 6145 ON THEIR SW DIAL. _ SULLIVAN UNCLASSIFIED >