INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDP) SITUATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 002002

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY
PARIS FOR C. NEARY
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2012
TAGS: EAID PGOV PHUM PREL ECON ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS (IDP) SITUATION
WORSENING

REF: A. HARARE 1934

B. HARARE 1901

C. HARARE 1870

D. HARARE 1099

E. HARARE 0998

Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d

Summary
--------------

1. (C) Comprised mostly of workers and their families from
commercial farms, the number of IDPs in Zimbabwe could
surpass half a million in the coming months. While the GOZ
has sought to deny the problem in the past, even accusing
temporary squatter settlements of being opposition training
camps, the Ministry of Labor has recently agreed to appoint
someone to liaise with UNDP on the issue. UN Geneva is in
the process of hiring an OCHA-IDP Coordinator and that person
is expected here in mid September. With the IDP situation
likely to deteriorate in the coming months, we urge early
consideration of funding to extend the OCHA-IDP Coordinator's
contract beyond the current 5-months; see action request in
paragraph 8. End Summary.

Scope of the Problem
--------------

2. (U) Using the number of commercial farmers already
evicted, the average number of workers per farm, and their
average family size, George Olesh and Crispin Kukasha of UNDP
estimate the number of displaced commercial farm workers and
their families currently at 270 - 300,000. They predict that
if the GOZ proceeds to evict farmers from all properties
listed for compulsory acquisition, the number of displaced
people could grow to 500 - 600,000, depending only on how
fast evictions progress. Zimbabwe Community Development
Trust (ZCDT),a local NGO, undertook a mail-in survey of
commercial farmers in July - August 2002. Of 3,200 surveys
sent, they received 346 responses. According to ZCDT
Director Tim Neil, the results of the survey indicate that
151,240 farm workers are currently displaced and at risk.
Since there are approximately 5.2 people in each farm
worker's family, ZCDT estimates that about 786,448 people are
currently displaced as a result of farm invasions. ZCDT's
survey also asked how many days of food supply farmers and
workers had as of August 8. The average response was 54
days. 99% of commercial farms are currently listed for
resettlement. According to Neil, if resettlement proceeds
and the pattern of disenfranchisement continues on its
present trajectory, 1.3 million farm workers and their
families will be displaced in the coming months.


3. (U) Mike Murray of Justice for Agriculture (JAG),also
conducted a survey for a German NGO, Organization Help, in
which he visited some 600 farms in Mashonaland, Manicaland
and Midlands in May and June 2002 to assess need for a
feeding program, and get a sense of overall food shortages.
His data indicate 150,000 farm workers were displaced at that
time and in need of assistance. At 5.2 people per farm
worker family, this gives a figure of 780,000 people
displaced. Based on the numbers of people seeking assistance
from political retribution since the March elections, Amani
Trust, a local human rights NGO, estimates the number of
opposition members and their families unable to return home
at 69,000. In some cases, Amani Trust has provided bus fare
for MDC members to simply leave the country, after concluding
that they would be unable to return home in the near-term.

Difficult Living Conditions
--------------

4. (U) Crispin Rukasha, National Program Officer at UNDP,
visited 15-20 commercial farms, where the farmer was already
evicted, from July 25 - August 8 to get a better sense of the
scope of the IDP problem and their individual circumstances.
He observed that settlers are occupying dwellings formerly
occupied by farm workers, and in most cases the workers are
now squatting on some other area of the farm. Some have
moved into crowded dwellings in communal villages near the
farm. In one case, a farmer who had not yet been evicted
would pick up his workers in the village every morning, drive
them to the farm for the day's work, then drive them back in
the evening. Some displaced workers have made it to the
Harare area where they have squatted on unused land. In
urban areas, most displaced workers have been forcibly
evicted by the police and army and told to return to their
original farms. Very few have the option of returning "home"
to communal lands they originally came from. 75% are of
Malawian, Mozambican or Zambian ancestry, and in many cases
they have lived on the commercial farms for a generation or
more; some were born there.


5. (U) There is considerable animosity between settlers and
farm workers, and tensions are growing. In a May 2002
report, Amani Trust documents numerous instances of violence
and intimidation of farm workers by settlers and Zanu-PF
militants. In general, new settlers plan to do the farm work
themselves, or hire others to help. However, Mike Murray
reported observing on numerous occasions, settlers forcing
farm workers to continue working under "food for work" terms,
handing out short supplies of maize in exchange for work
done. As Ref. B. suggests, conflicts between workers and
settlers will increase as evictions proceed, and more
competition for land sprouts with the rains.

GOZ Beginning to Acknowledge Problem
--------------

6. (C) Until recently, the GOZ has sought to deny or gloss
over the IDP problem. On August 29 Police arrested Frances
Lovemore of Amani Trust in Harare, as well as 17 workers
preparing an IDP camp in the Mazowe area (about 50 km north
of Harare). The Mazowe land was leased from a farmer by
Amani Trust and ZCDT to accommodate IDPs. Police have
charged Lovemore with possessing subversive material, but
Amani Trust has been unable to determine the charges pending
against the workers. Last year, Police raided an Amani Trust
safe house, detaining 27 people for 2 days and accusing Amani
Trust of running an opposition training camp. As a result of
such intimidation, many IDPs don't want to be identified as
such, fearing further victimization. The majority of IDPs,
therefore are "displaced" on farms where they were previously
living and working, afraid to seek assistance but with no
protection, income, secure food source, or medical attention.
However, in the past two weeks, the Ministry of Labor has
agreed to assign a contact person to liaise with the UN on
the issue. Delicately, UNDP has relied on the helpfulness of
local District Administrators, Provincial Administrators, and
CEOs of Rural District Councils to help identify farms where
displacement is occurring, and gain access to interview
workers.

OCHA to Assign IDP Coordinator
--------------

7. (U) Thanks to U.S. funding, OCHA plans to assign an IDP
Coordinator to Harare. According to George Olesh, Deputy
Coordinator for the Relief and Recovery Unit of the local
UNDP office, the UN office in Geneva is in the process of
considering applicants for the position. UNDP expects the
incumbent to be in Harare by mid September. UN Geneva has
advertised it as a 5-month position, with the possibility to
extend (funds permitting). According to Olesh, the intention
is for the incumbent to act as the point person for all IDP
issues in Zimbabwe. The incumbent's first priority will be
to work with local NGOs to gather better data on the extent
of the problem. Olesh was vague about whether the
Coordinator would be able to design programs, as the OCHA-IDP
Unit's primary mandate is information gathering. (Note: In
our view, the new OCHA person will inevitably have to
focus--quickly--on program design and implementation, an
effort which will require further assistance from donors.
End note.)

COMMENT
--------------

8. (C) It is very difficult to provide precise estimates of
the IDP population because many are afraid to report their
plight, or they merge into extended family structures, and
different methods are used to count them. However, Amani
Trust, UNDP, ZCDT and JAG numbers are consistent with each
other. We have no reason to doubt that Amani Trust's
estimate of 69,000 displaced MDC supporters. The UNDP
estimates focus on IDPs at highest risk, i.e. farms where the
farmer has already been evicted. Thus there are at least
300,000 farm workers and their families displaced whose
plight is most acute. ZCDT and JAG surveyed farmers still on
their properties, but extrapolated numerically to reflect
farms where the farmer is already gone. Thus the figure
780,000 includes the UN figure and cases where the workers,
displaced economically and kicked out of their dwellings by
settlers, are simply in the pipeline to higher vulnerability
when the farmer is evicted. By any interpretation, having
lost their residences and incomes, displaced farm workers and
their families are vulnerable to medical risks and lack basic
food and housing necessities. Not only could their
numbers--and the consequent humanitarian challenges--quickly
rise in the coming months, but animosity with settlers is
making their bad situation worse. While the government has
agreed to cooperate with the UN on the issue, the recent
arrest of workers at an IDP camp, and past harassment of IDPs
indicate the GOZ is more interested in hiding an embarrassing
problem than in meeting the needs of a displaced population
for whose plight it bears exclusive responsibility. With no
break foreseen in the coming months on farm evictions, food
shortages, or the drought, the Department may wish to
consider funding the OCHA-IDP representative beyond the
5-month period envisioned in UNDP's current contract.


9. (C) Comment continued. In an August 28 meeting between
the Ambassador, AID and UNDP (including the ResRep),it was
agreed by all that local NGOs have a decent grasp of numbers
and the potential scope of the IDP issue. However, there has
been little to no planning on how to design and implement
programs that address their needs. Accordingly, our focus
will be more on what we can do to alleviate their suffering
than to simply track numbers and document their plight. The
UNDP is aware of our concerns in this area. End Comment.
SULLIVAN