SETTING VIETNAM'S IDEOLOGICAL COURSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HANOI 000931 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/16/12 TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL CH VM DPOL SUBJECT: SETTING VIETNAM'S IDEOLOGICAL COURSE REF: FBIS SEP20020307000012 ¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POL/C SCOTT BELLARD, REASON: 1.5 (D) ¶2. (C) SUMMARY. THE CPV'S CENTRAL THEORETICAL RESEARCH COUNCIL IS STRUGGLING TO REDEFINE VIETNAMESE SOCIALISM IN THE FACE OF MARKET-DRIVEN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND GLOBALIZATION, AS WELL AS INTERNAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 00931 01 OF 03 160954Z CHALLENGES STEMMING FROM OVERLY BUREAUCRATIC PRACTICES AND CORRUPTION. ENTRY INTO THE CPV OF PRIVATE ENTREPRENEURS REMAINS A CONTENTIOUS THEORETICAL ISSUE. IDEOLOGICAL ORGANS ARE LIKELY DESPERATE TO RETAIN INFLUENCE IN AN ERA WHEN THEORIES ARE OF LITTLE IF ANY INTEREST TO MOST OF THE PUBLIC AND WHEN THE IDEOLOGICAL LEADERSHIP OF THE CPV IS INCREASINGLY IRRELEVANT TO ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL REALITIES. END SUMMARY. ¶3. (C) IN A MEETING WITH POL/C ON APRIL 15, DR. DAO DUY QUAT, VICE CHAIRMAN OF COMMISSION FOR IDEOLOGICAL AND CULTURAL AFFAIRS OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF VIETNAM (CPV) AND SIMULTANEOUSLY A MEMBER OF THE CENTRAL THEORETICAL RESEARCH COUNCIL, DESCRIBED THE MAJOR ACTIVITIES AND PRIORITIES OF THE COUNCIL. HE WAS JOINED BY DR. NGUYEN VIET THONG, DIRECTOR OF THE THEORETICAL EDUCATION DEPARTMENT OF THE COMMISSION FOR IDEOLOGICAL AND CULTURAL AFFAIRS, AND MS. PHAM THI DAO, AN EXPERT IN ITS DEPARTMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND POPULARIZATION. ORGANIZATIONAL ASPECTS -------------- ¶4. (C) DR. QUAT STRESSED THAT ALL THE WORK OF THE COUNCIL WAS PREMISED ON THE NECESSITY FOR THE CPV TO "HOLD POWER" AND TO RETAIN ITS "DECISIVE PATH-SETTING" VIS-A-VIS POLICIES FOR VIETNAM. THE COUNCIL ACTS AS AN "ADVISER" TO THE POLITBURO, CENTRAL COMMITTEE, AND CPV GENERAL SECRETARY NONG DUC MANH ON THE THEORETICAL BASIS FOR EXISTING AND NEW POLICIES, ALTHOUGH HE SAID CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 00931 01 OF 03 160954Z THAT THE COUNCIL MEMBERS DO NOT OFFER SPECIFIC POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS PER SE. THE COUNCIL ALSO ADVISES THE CPV ON IDEOLOGICAL CAMPAIGNS TO IMPLEMENT CPV DECISIONS, SUCH AS TO PROMOTE VIETNAM'S ECONOMIC MODERNIZATION UNDER "DOI MOI" AND ITS INTEGRATION INTO THE WORLD ECONOMY. ¶5. (U) COUNCIL MEMBERS ARE SELECTED FOR FIVE YEAR TERMS AT THE BEGINNING OF EACH NEW PARTY CONGRESS. DR. QUAT WAS ELECTED TO HIS SECOND TERM AT THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS IN 2001, WHEN THE COUNCIL WAS EXPANDED FROM 23 TO 36 MEMBERS. THE COUNCIL DID NOT EXIST UNDER THIS NAME OR WITH ITS CURRENT FUNCTIONS BEFORE THE 7TH PARTY CONGRESS, ALTHOUGH DR. QUAT INDICATED THAT OTHER CPV ORGANS BEFORE THEN HAD HANDLED RELATED FUNCTIONS. ¶6. (C) THE COUNCIL INCLUDES FIVE OFFICES: POLITICS, ECONOMICS, CULTURE AND SOCIETY, PARTY-BUILDING, AND DEFENSE AND PUBLIC SECURITY. (NOTE: EMBASSY UNDERSTANDS THAT THERE ARE ALSO FIVE PERMANENT STAFF MEMBERS, ALTHOUGH DR. QUAT DID NOT DISCUSS THEIR EXISTENCE OR ROLE. END NOTE) EACH MEMBER IS FOCUSED ON ONE MAIN SPECIALTY, WHILE EXPECTED ALSO TO BE ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE ON ALL ASPECTS OF THE COUNCIL'S WORK. COUNCIL MEMBERS MAY INDIVIDUALLY OR JOINTLY UNDERTAKE "RESEARCH" PROJECTS, WHICH APPEAR MOSTLY TO TAKE THE FORM OF VISITS AND INSPECTIONS (BOTH TO CENTRAL ORGANS IN HANOI AND IN THE COUNTRYSIDE),AS WELL AS LIAISON AND EXCHANGES OF VIEWS WITH FOREIGN COUNTERPARTS. DR. QUAT EXPRESSED AN INTEREST IN CONTACTS WITH A RESEARCH ORGANIZATION UNDER THE "RULING PARTY" OF THE UNITED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 00931 01 OF 03 160954Z STATES. ¶7. (C) THE COUNCIL MEETS IN PLENUM FOR ABOUT A WEEK EVERY THREE MONTHS, DR. QUAT SAID, FOR GENERAL DISCUSSION ON TWO OR THREE SELECTED THEORETICAL ISSUES. IT USUALLY PREPARES A WRITTEN DOCUMENT FOR REFERENCE PRIMARILY BY THE POLITBURO AND GENERAL SECRETARY; HE ADMITTED THAT THESE DOCUMENTS ARE NOT AVAILABLE FOR PUBLIC PURVIEW OR DISCUSSION. THE POLITBURO ISSUES GENERAL GUIDANCE ON THEORETICAL PRIORITIES AT THE BEGINNING OF EVERY PARTY CONGRESS, BUT HE ADDED THAT THE COUNCIL RECEIVES MORE UPDATED GUIDANCE REGULARLY AS PRIORITIES CHANGE. TASKS FOR 2002 -------------- ¶8. (C) THE COUNCIL CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO ARTICULATE A "CLEAR THEORY" ABOUT THE NATURE AND DIRECTION OF SOCIALISM IN A MARKET-ORIENTED ECONOMY, DR. QUAT ADMITTED. HE NOTED THE THEORETICAL CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9929 PAGE 01 HANOI 00931 02 OF 03 160955Z ACTION EAP-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DS-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W -------------- 86CD26 160955Z /38 R 160912Z APR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HANOI TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6195 INFO AMEMBASSY BEIJING USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HANOI 000931 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV DIFFICULTIES IN DEFINING THE LEADING ROLE OF THE PARTY IN AN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INCREASINGLY DRIVEN BY THE ROLE OF MARKETS. HE POINTED TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE US-VIETNAM BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT, AS WELL AS TO THE EFFECTS OF GLOBALIZATION ON VIETNAMESE AGRICULTURE, AS OTHER COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THIS THEORETICAL DEBATE. HOWEVER, HE STRESSED THAT THE SIGNING AND RATIFICATION OF THE BTA, AS WELL AS ONGOING EFFORTS BY VIETNAM TO JOIN THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, CLEARLY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 00931 02 OF 03 160955Z WERE THE RESULTS OF, AND REFLECTED, CPV POLICY AND PRIORITIES. HE ALSO POINTED TO THE "LONG TERM POSITIVE EFFECTS" OF BTA ON VIETNAM'S ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND SAID THAT ITS IMPLEMENTATION WAS UNDOUBTEDLY IN THE BEST INTERESTS OF BOTH COUNTRIES. HE NOTED EXPLICITLY THAT HE WAS "NOT OFFERING PERSONAL OPINIONS." ¶9. (C) STRENGTHENING THE IDEOLOGICAL LEVEL OF PARTY AND GOVERNMENT CADRES WAS ANOTHER KEY TASK FOR 2002, DR. QUAT SAID. HE NOTED THAT "THE REALITY IS THAT SOME PARTY MEMBERS AND SOME CADRES ARE WEAK" IN THIS DOMAIN. HE CLAIMED NONETHELESS THAT THE PARTY WAS "MAKING PROGRESS" IN THIS EFFORT. (REFTEL PROVIDES TEXT OF CPV GENERAL SECRETARY MANH'S SPEECH TO A JANUARY 29 MEETING OF THE COUNCIL, AS REPORTED IN TAP CHI CONG SAN, THE BIMONTHLY THEORETICAL JOURNAL OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE, IN WHICH HE DISCUSSES THIS PROBLEM EXTENSIVELY.) ¶10. (C) ANOTHER ONGOING DEBATE REVOLVED AROUND PARTY MEMBERSHIP BY PRIVATE ENTREPRENEURS, DR. QUAT SAID IN RESPONSE TO A QUESTION. HE NOTED THAT THE COUNCIL HAD FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE DEBATE WITHIN THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY ON THIS ISSUE, BUT THAT THE CCP WAS FURTHER AHEAD IN ITS DECISION-MAKING. (HE ADDED THAT HE WAS LEAVING ON APRIL 16 FOR THE PRC TO EXCHANGE VIEWS ON THIS AND OTHER THEORETICAL ISSUES WITH CCP COUNTERPARTS.) DR. QUAT REMARKED THAT THE "BIG DISAGREEMENTS" WITHIN THE CPV ON THIS SUBJECT STEMMED FROM THE CPV'S SELF-IDENTIFICATION WITH THE "WORKERS" AND NOT WITH THE "BOSSES" OR "EXPLOITERS." MANY CPV MEMBERS, OR AT LEAST "A PART" OF THE CPV, FELT STRONGLY CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 00931 02 OF 03 160955Z THAT THE CPV SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS SOLIDARITY. HOWEVER, THE CPV LEADERSHIP HAS ALREADY AGREED THAT CURRENT CPV MEMBERS MAY ENGAGE IN PRIVATE BUSINESS, ACCORDING TO DR. QUAT, WHILE DEFERRING FOR NOW ANY DECISION ON WHETHER ANY NEW MEMBERS MAY COME FROM THE RANKS OF PRIVATE BUSINESS OR ENTERPRISE. HE PREDICTED FINAL RESOLUTION OF THIS ISSUE BEFORE THE 10TH PARTY CONGRESS IN 2006. CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE -------------- ¶11. (C) DR. QUAT SAID THAT ESSENTIAL TO THE CPV'S FUTURE WOULD BE THE CPV'S AND GVN'S ABILITY TO MAINTAIN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AT SUITABLE LEVELS. THE COUNCIL IS SEEKING TO FRAME THE THEORETICAL UNDERPINNINGS UNDER MARXIST-LENINIST THOUGHT FOR THE ACHIEVEMENT OF AN INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY BY 2020 UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF THE CPV, HE ADDED. THE OTHER MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS WILL BE THE CPV'S ABILITY SUCCESSFULLY TO COMBAT "BUREAUCRATICISM AND CORRUPTION." WHILE STRESSING THAT ALL SOCIETIES AND SYSTEMS FACE SUCH PROBLEMS, HE ADMITTED THAT IF THE CPV FAILS AT THIS TASK -- OR IS PERCEIVED AS FAILING -- IT WOULD BE "VERY DANGEROUS" FOR THE CPV'S MONOPOLY ON POWER. WHEN ASKED IF HE WAS "OPTIMISTIC" THAT THE CPV WOULD BE SUCCESSFUL IN THIS FIGHT, HE RESPONDED ONLY THAT "WE BELIEVE WE CAN SOLVE" THESE PROBLEMS. HE POINTED TO RECENT REQUIREMENTS ON THE DECLARATION OF ASSETS BY OFFICIALS AS EVIDENCE OF THE CPV'S DETERMINATION, WHILE ADMITTING THAT CULTURAL PRACTICES AND LACK OF ADEQUATE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 00931 02 OF 03 160955Z SUPERVISION MADE IT DIFFICULT TO ENSURE FULL DISCLOSURE. DR. QUAT ALSO CLAIMED THAT "DEMOCRATIZATION" WOULD PLAY AN ESSENTIAL PART IN THIS STRUGGLE, AND THAT A LARGER ROLE FOR THE MEDIA IN INVESTIGATING SUCH PROBLEMS COULD BE VALUABLE. ¶12. (C) COMMENT: THE CPV'S IDEOLOGICAL ORGANS PROBABLY REMAIN AMONG THE LAST BASTIONS OF COMMUNIST CONSERVATISM, ALONG WITH ELEMENTS OF THE DEFENSE AND SECURITY HIERARCHY. AS SUCH, THEY LIKELY ARE STRUGGLING TO RETAIN THEIR IDENTITY AND A USEFUL ROLE IN THIS RAPIDLY CHANGING SOCIETY, IN WHICH THE DIRECTIVES AND THEORETICAL DEBATES OF THE CPV ARE, OR MAY APPEAR TO BE, OF INCREASINGLY IRRELEVANCE TO THE LIVES OF MOST VIETNAMESE CITIZENS. WITH MARKET FORCES REPLACING CPV DIKTATS AS THE BASIS FOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS, THE LEADERSHIP ROLE OF THE CPV IS NECESSARILY CIRCUMSCRIBED, EVEN THOUGH THE CPV, DIRECTLY OR THROUGH THE GVN, RETAINS CONSIDERABLE COERCIVE AND/OR PUNITIVE CAPACITIES. FOR ALL THE PUBLICITY IN THE MEDIA GIVEN TO THE "THREATS" FROM CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ9931 PAGE 01 HANOI 00931 03 OF 03 160955Z ACTION EAP-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DS-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W -------------- 86CD2B 160955Z /38 R 160912Z APR 02 FM AMEMBASSY HANOI TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6196 INFO AMEMBASSY BEIJING USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HANOI 000931 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV "HOSTILE FORCES" OR FROM "PEACEFUL EVOLUTION," IT IS NOTABLE THAT DR. QUAT DID NOT CITE SUCH ISSUES AS PRIORITY TASKS FOR 2002 OR FUTURE CHALLENGES FOR THE CPV. THIS MAY INDICATE THAT EVEN THE CPV DOES NOT TAKE ITS OWN PROPAGANDA TOTALLY SERIOUSLY (OR THAT ITS IDEOLOGICAL LEADERS SEE NO POINT IN DISCUSSING DIRECTLY WITH A REPRESENTATIVE OF THE USG). BURGHARDT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 00931 03 OF 03 160955Z CONFIDENTIAL