NONG DUC MANH VISITS JAPAN: ACCORDING TO SCRIPT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 002493

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TAGS: PREL PTER ETRD EAID ECON JA VM
SUBJECT: NONG DUC MANH VISITS JAPAN: ACCORDING TO SCRIPT



1. (SBU) SUMMARY. NONG DUC MANH, GENERAL SECRETARY OF THE
COMMUNIST PARTY OF VIETNAM (CPV),VISITED JAPAN OCTOBER 2-5.
BOTH SIDES PREDICTABLY LABELED THE CAREFULLY SCRIPTED VISIT
AS A "SUCCESS." IN ADDITION TO "REAFFIRMING THE STRONG
BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP," TOPICS INCLUDED THE NEED FOR
VIETNAM TO MAKE JAPAN'S OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE
(ODA) "MORE EFFICIENT," BEEFING UP NEGOTIATIONS FOR A
"SPEEDY CONCLUSION" OF A BILATERAL AGREEMENT ON INVESTMENT
PROTECTION AND PROMOTION, AND POSSIBLE RELIEF OF IMPORT
RESTRICTIONS OF JAPANESE MOTORBIKE KITS. JAPAN PUSHED FOR
VIETNAM'S EARLY RATIFICATION OF THE COMPREHENSIVE NUCLEAR
TEST BAN TREATY. BOTH SIDES REITERATED A COMMITMENT TO
ERADICATE TERRORISM. MANH INVITED THE EMPEROR TO VISIT
VIETNAM, BUT SUCH A VISIT IS UNLIKELY. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) THIS WAS MANH'S FIRST VISIT TO JAPAN SINCE BECOMING
GENERAL SECRETARY IN APRIL 2001, ALTHOUGH HE HAD PREVIOUSLY
VISITED JAPAN IN 1995 AS THEN-NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIRMAN.
THEN-CPV GENERAL SECRETARY DO MUOI AND THEN-PRIME MINISTER
VO VAN KIET VISITED IN 1995 AND 1993, RESPECTIVELY.
OFFICIALS ACCOMPANYING MANH INCLUDED DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER
VU KHOAN, FOREIGN MINISTER NGUYEN DY NIEN, SEVERAL HIGH
RANKING CPV OFFICIALS, MINISTER OF PLANNING AND INVESTMENT
VO HONG PHUC, AND MINISTER OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NGUYEN
MINH HIEN.


3. (SBU) MANH SPENT MOST OF HIS TIME IN TOKYO, BUT ALSO
VISITED OSAKA, WHICH HAS CLOSE TIES TO HO CHI MINH CITY. HE
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RETURNED TO VIETNAM DIRECTLY FROM OSAKA. ACCORDING TO
NGUYEN VINH QUANG, VICE DIRECTOR OF THE CPV CENTRAL
COMMITTEE COMMISSION FOR EXTERNAL AFFAIRS' DEPARTMENT FOR
CHINA AND NORTHEAST ASIA, MANH HAD AN AUDIENCE WITH JAPANESE
EMPEROR AKIHITO, AND MET WITH PRIME MINISTER KOIZUMI AND
NUMEROUS HIGH-RANKING OFFICIALS FROM JAPANESE POLITICAL
PARTIES AND THE LEGISLATURE. IN ADDITION, MANH HAD MEETINGS
WITH THE JAPAN UNION OF ECONOMIC ORGANIZATIONS AND THE JAPAN-
VIETNAM FRIENDSHIP ASSOCIATION, AND PAID A VISIT TO A
UNIVERSITY. QUANG SAID THAT MANH DID NOT COME INTO CONTACT
WITH STUDENTS DURING THE UNIVERSITY VISIT. JAPANESE EMBOFFS
NOTED SEPARATELY THAT MANH MADE PRO FORMA CALLS ON THE HEADS
OF BOTH HOUSES OF PARLIAMENT AS WELL AS THE LEADER OF THE
JAPANESE COMMUNIST PARTY.

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ODA: DO MORE WITH LESS
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4. (SBU) DURING HIS MEETING WITH KOIZUMI, MANH REITERATED
THE NEED FOR JAPAN TO CONTINUE ITS CURRENT LEVEL OF ODA.
JAPAN IS VIETNAM'S LARGEST ODA DONOR; FOR THE CURRENT FISCAL
YEAR, IT HAS PLEDGED NEARLY USD 739 MILLION, ACCORDING TO
PRESS REPORTS. (NOTE: WHILE JAPAN IS CUTTING ITS ODA BY
ABOUT 10 PCT WORLDWIDE THIS YEAR, VIETNAM LEVELS REMAINED
STEADY, WHICH MADE JAPAN THE COUNTRY OF THE HOUR AT LAST
YEAR'S CONSULTATIVE GROUP OF DONORS MEETING IN HANOI. END
NOTE) JAPAN REPRESENTS ABOUT 40 PERCENT OF VIETNAM'S TOTAL
ODA, ALTHOUGH A WHOPPING 85 PCT OF THAT IS TIED AID.
JAPANESE EMBOFFS SAID THAT, WHILE KOIZUMI AND MANH DID NOT
DISCUSS SPECIFIC NUMBERS, THE VIETNAMESE SIDE RECOGNIZED
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THAT THE GVN WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DO MORE WITH LESS. DURING
DISCUSSIONS AND IN THE FINAL COMMUNIQU, BOTH SIDES
SPECIFICALLY AGREED FOR THE NEED FOR VIETNAM TO USE JAPAN'S
ODA MORE "EFFECTIVELY AND EFFICIENTLY, GIVEN THE CURRENT
BUDGETARY SITUATION."

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INVESTMENT PROTECTION AND PROMOTION: LET'S GET IT DONE
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5. (U) THE CPV'S QUANG SAID THAT BOTH SIDES ARE "ANXIOUS"
TO COMPLETE WORK ON THIS AGREEMENT, WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN
NEGOTIATING SINCE 1999. HE PREDICTED THAT "CHANCES ARE
GOOD" IT WILL BE COMPLETED BY THE END OF THIS YEAR. QUANG
ADMITTED THAT JAPANESE BUSINESSES WANT TO SEE MORE OPEN
MARKETS IN VIETNAM, AND ADDED THAT THE AGREEMENT IS
IMPORTANT TO DEMONSTRATE VIETNAM'S COMMITMENT TO ATTRACTING
MORE FOREIGN INVESTMENT NOT ONLY FROM JAPAN BUT ALSO OTHER
FOREIGN SOURCES. ACCORDING TO QUANG, MANH AGREED WITH HIS
HOSTS ON THE NEED TO ACCELERATE NEGOTIATIONS AND COMPLETE
THE AGREEMENT. (COMMENT: TALKS ON THIS AGREEMENT HAD BEEN
LANGUISHING UNTIL THE US-VIETNAM BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT
WENT INTO EFFECT IN DECEMBER 2001. SINCE THEN, JAPAN HAS
APPARENTLY FELT A RENEWED URGENCY, WHILE VIETNAM HAD FEWER
EXCUSES FOR DELAYING THE TALKS. EMBASSY UNDERSTANDS THAT
JAPAN IS PUSHING FOR A BTA-PLUS AGREEMENT, WHILE VIETNAM IS
HOLDING OUT FOR BTA-MINUS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPECULATION
THAT THE RECENT MOTORBIKE DISPUTE MAY HAVE BEEN LINKED TO

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ACTION EAP-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 A-00 CA-01 CCO-00 CEA-01
CG-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 CTME-00 DOEE-00 ITCE-00 DOTE-00
SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EXME-00 E-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
UTED-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 INSE-00
ITC-01 L-00 VCE-00 M-00 AC-01 DCP-01 NRCE-00
NSAE-00 OCS-03 OES-01 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PER-00
PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SCT-00 SP-00 SSO-00
STR-00 TEST-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 USSS-00 ASDS-01 PMB-00
DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /015W
-------------- F72AE4 150724Z /38
R 150716Z OCT 02
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7787
INFO AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY
AMEMBASSY TOKYO
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI
NSC WASHDC
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ACHAO//

UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 HANOI 002493

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SUBJ: NONG DUC MANH VISITS JAPAN: ACCORDING TO SCRIPT

PUTTING PRESSURE ON JAPAN DURING THE NEGOTIATIONS. END
COMMENT.)

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MOTORBIKES: WE'RE HURTING
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6. (U) JUST PRIOR TO MANH'S VISIT, THE GVN ANNOUNCED THAT
IT WAS DRASTICALLY CUTTING THE AGREED QUOTA FOR THE IMPORT
OF "KNOCKDOWN KITS" FOR JAPANESE MOTORCYCLE MAKERS. HONDA
WAS PARTICULARLY HARD HIT. AUTHORITIES IN VINH PHUC
PROVINCE, WHERE THE FACTORY IS LOCATED, HAD AUTHORIZED AN
ANNUAL IMPORT QUOTA OF 587,000 KITS, BUT CENTRAL AUTHORITIES
CUT THAT TO 280,000 KITS. SINCE HONDA HAD ALREADY EXCEEDED
THAT NUMBER, IT WILL BE FORCED TO CEASE PRODUCTION FOR THE
REST OF THE YEAR. QUOTAS FOR YAMAHA AND SUZUKI WERE ALSO
CUT, AND PRODUCTION AT THOSE FACILITIES HAS SLOWED.


7. (U) ON THE MARGINS OF MANH'S TALKS WITH THE GOJ, SENIOR
EXECUTIVES FROM HONDA, SUZUKI, AND YAMAHA MET SEPARATELY
WITH DPM (AND FORMER TRADE MINISTER) VU KHOAN CONCERNING
THESE RECENT VIETNAMESE LIMITATIONS. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT
BILATERAL ISSUE TO THE GOJ, ACCORDING TO JAPANESE EMBOFFS.
JAPANESE INTERLOCUTORS TOLD KHOAN THAT THE RESTRICTION WAS
PROTECTIONIST AND HAD A MAJOR IMPACT ON THEIR PRODUCTION
PLANS. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, KHOAN ASSURED THE
BUSINESS REPRESENTATIVES THAT HE PERSONALLY WOULD WORK ON
THIS ISSUE, BUT CLAIMED THAT A MAJOR REASON BEHIND THE
RESTRICTIONS WAS TO CURB VIETNAM'S SOARING MOTORBIKE
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ACCIDENT RATE. (COMMENT: EMBASSY SERIOUSLY DOUBTS THIS
CLAIM. END COMMENT) OTHER GVN OFFICIALS ARE CLAIMING THAT
THE QUOTAS WERE "FROZEN" BECAUSE JAPANESE MAKERS ARE NOT
FULFILLING THE REQUIREMENTS FOR "LOCAL CONTENT" AS
STIPULATED IN THEIR INVESTMENT LICENSES. (COMMENT: MORE
LIKELY. END COMMENT)

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CTBT AND TERRORISM: AGREEING, BUT NOT COMPLETELY
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8. (SBU) JAPAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER YORIKO KAWAGUCHI MET
WITH FM NIEN AND REQUESTED THAT VIETNAM QUICKLY RATIFY THE
CTBT. ACCORDING TO QUANG AND PRESS REPORTS, NIEN TOLD
KAWAGUCHI THAT VIETNAM AGREES WITH JAPAN ON THE NEED FOR
RATIFICATION. THE CPV'S QUANG TOLD POLOFF THAT THE CTBT IS
NOW "BEING REVIEWED" IN THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS
(MFA) AND HAS NOT YET BEEN SUBMITTED TO THE NATIONAL
ASSEMBLY, HOWEVER. QUANG WAS UNABLE TO OFFER A PREDICTION
AS TO WHEN THE MFA WOULD FINISH ITS REVIEW. ACCORDING TO
JAPANESE EMBOFFS, THE VIETNAMESE SIDE REJECTED JAPANESE
PROPOSED COMMUNIQU LANGUAGE THAT CTBT RATIFICATION WAS OF
"UTMOST" IMPORTANCE.


9. (SBU) CONCERNING TERRORISM, QUANG SAID MANH DISCUSSED
THE ISSUE "BRIEFLY AND GENERALLY" WITH KOIZUMI BUT DID NOT
GO INTO DETAILS. THERE WAS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE NEED TO
CONTINUE EFFORTS TO ERADICATE TERRORISM, BUT NO PLANS FOR
ANY NEW FORMS OF BILATERAL COOPERATION. ACCORDING TO
JAPANESE EMBOFFS, REFERENCES IN THE JOINT COMMUNIQU TO
EARLIER APEC AND ASEM DECLARATIONS ON TERRORISM WERE
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INSERTED AT VIETNAM'S REQUEST.

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ROYAL VISIT UNLIKEY
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10. (SBU) MANH REITERATED AN INVITATION FOR THE EMPEROR
AND EMPRESS TO VISIT VIETNAM. PRIME MINISTER KHAI HAD ALSO
ISSUED THIS INVITATION WHEN KOIZUMI VISITED VIETNAM LAST
APRIL. SOURCES HERE PREDICT THAT SUCH A VISIT IS UNLIKELY,
HOWEVER.

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KEEPING A BALANCE
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11. (SBU) DURING MANH'S VISIT, THE CPV ANNOUNCED PLANS FOR
HIM TO VISIT RUSSIA "IN THE COMING DAYS," WITHOUT PROVIDING
ACTUAL DATES. JAPANESE EMBOFFS NOTED THAT THE TIMING OF
THIS ANNOUNCEMENT WAS UNLIKELY TO BE COINCIDENTAL, AND WAS
PROBABLY INTENDED BY VIETNAM AS SHOWING NO FAVORITISM IN ITS
RELATIONS WITH THESE TWO IMPORTANT PARTNERS.
BURGHARDT

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