VIETNAM: APEC OCTOBER MEETING (C-AL2-00879)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 002465 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/12 TAGS: PINR ECIN VM KPRP APEC CTERR SUBJECT: VIETNAM: APEC OCTOBER MEETING (C-AL2-00879) REF: STATE 184827 ¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY CLAIRE A. PIERANGELO, ECONOMIC COUNSELOR. REASON 1.5 (C). ¶2. (C) POST HAS HAD A NUMBER OF DISCUSSIONS WITH GVN OFFICIALS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS REGARDING APEC AND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 02465 01 OF 02 100745Z VIETNAM'S ROLE. WHILE VIETNAM IS WORKING HARD TO PARTICIPATE IN MORE APEC ACTIVITIES, IT IS HAMPERED BY ITS SEVERE PERSONNEL AND RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS AS WELL AS A CHRONIC LACK OF "DEEP THINKING" AT SENIOR-MOST LEVELS. WE FIND IT A VERY DIFFERENT STORY AT THE GVN'S WORKING LEVEL, BUT DO NOT SEE THAT ENERGY AND CREATIVE THOUGHT PROCESS TRANSLATING INTO OVERALL GVN POLICY ON APEC - YET. OVERALL, DECISION-MAKING WITHIN THE GVN REMAINS VERY MUCH TOP-DOWN AND CONSENSUS-BASED, FURTHER LIMITING THE GVN'S ABILITY TO RESPOND TO -- MUCH LESS PROPOSE -- NEW INITIATIVES. ¶3. (C) THE PRIMARY GOAL FOR VIETNAM AT THE UPCOMING OCTOBER MEETING IS TO GET APEC AGREEMENT FOR VIETNAM TO HOST APEC IN 2006. VIETNAM'S LONG-TERM GOAL FOR ALL APEC MEETINGS IS TO USE THE APEC PROCESS TO FURTHER DOMESTIC ECONOMIC REFORM GOALS (CAPACITY BUILDING) AND ITS BROADER OBJECTIVE OF MULTI-LATERALIZING AND DIVERSIFYING ITS FOREIGN RELATIONS AS WELL AS INCREASING REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION. IN MANY WAYS, VIETNAM STILL SEES APEC AS ONE- WAY TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE STREET; CHANGING THAT ATTITUDE WILL BE DIFFICULT. LEADING UP TO 2006, THE GVN HAS A SPECIFIC POLICY OF HOSTING A NUMBER OF VARIOUS WORKING GROUP MEETINGS EVERY YEAR AS PREPARATION. ACCORDING TO MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OFFICIALS, ASEAN HAS TOLD VIETNAM THAT IT IS VIETNAM'S TURN TO HOST IN 2006 AND THE GVN IS TREATING IT VIRTUALLY AS A DONE DEAL. SOME MOFA OFFICIALS HAVE CHARACTERIZED VIETNAM'S DESIRE TO HOST IN 2006 PARTIALLY AS VIETNAM'S "DUTY" AS AN ASEAN MEMBER AND PARTIALLY AS VIETNAM'S "DUE." VIETNAM WILL WANT TO USE THE OCCASION TO RECONFIRM 20 YEARS OF "DOI MOI" (ECONOMIC CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 02465 01 OF 02 100745Z RENOVATION),AND RECONFIRM ITS POLICY OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION. ACCORDING TO MINISTRY OF TRADE OFFICIALS, ASEAN ACTUALLY TRIED TO CONVINCE VIETNAM TO HOST IN 2003 AND THE GVN HAD BEEN CONSIDERING IT. HOWEVER, MOT AND OTHER MINISTRIES OPPOSED THAT DATE, NOTING THAT VIETNAM WAS ALREADY HOSTING THE SOUTH-EAST ASIAN GAMES AND WAS NOT READY TO TAKE ON SUCH AN EXPENSIVE CHALLENGE. SOME WORKING LEVEL CONTACTS AT MOT AND MINISTRY OF FINANCE (THE BUDGET MASTERS) CONTINUE TO QUESTION WHETHER VIETNAM WILL BE READY INTERNALLY TO HANDLE HOSTING APEC FROM FINANCIAL, PERSONNEL AND SUBSTANTIVE PERSPECTIVES. ADMINISTRATIVELY, HOWEVER, FEW QUESTION VIETNAM'S ABILITY TO MEET THE INFRASTRUCTURE CHALLENGE. BUT QUESTIONS DO REMAIN ABOUT WHETHER GVN LEADERS WILL USE THE OCCASION SIMPLY TO CONGRATULATE THEMSELVES FOR PAST REFORMS, OR TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH CURRENT AND FUTURE REFORMS IN ORDER TO SHOWCASE REAL RESULTS. ¶4. (C) ACCORDING TO MOFA AND MOT OFFICIALS, VIETNAM FEELS THAT MEXICO IS DOING AS GOOD A JOB AS IS POSSIBLE UNDER "THE CIRCUMSTANCES" -- "MEXICO IS TRYING HARD, BUT THE PROBLEM IS NOT MEXICO, IT'S APEC." THEY RESERVED THEIR STRONG CRITICISM FOR THE APEC SECRETARIAT STAFF. MOT IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN UNHAPPY WITH THE APEC SECRETARIAT AND FEELS THAT THE STAFF NEEDS TO BE MORE PROFESSIONAL AS WELL AS DO A BETTER JOB AT SCHEDULING MEETINGS AND IN REIGNING IN MEMBERS REGARDING LAST MINUTE PROPOSALS, WHICH LEAVE LITTLE TIME FOR MEMBERS TO STUDY THEM ON A SUBSTANTIVE BASIS. (THIS IS PARTICULARLY A PROBLEM FOR VIETNAM, WHICH NORMALLY NEEDS ADDITIONAL STUDY TIME ON ANY ISSUE, NO MATTER HOW MINOR.) MOFA AND MOT OFFICIALS AGREED THAT CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 02465 01 OF 02 100745Z THEY WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE APEC MEETINGS BECOME MORE FOCUSED, WITH FEWER AND BETTER INITIATIVES. VIETNAMESE OFFICIALS ARE CLEARLY FEELING OVERWHELMED AT THE VOLUME OF INITIATIVES WHICH IS AT A LEVEL BEYOND THEIR CAPACITY TO REVIEW AND EVALUATE THEM ALL. ¶5. (C) VIETNAMESE OFFICIALS ARE POSITIVE REGARDING MEXICO'S THEME AND NOTED NO REAL CONTENTIOUS ISSUES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE DIFFICULTIES REGARDING TIMING ISSUES FOR REQUIREMENTS FOR CT INITIATIVES (SEE BELOW). ¶6. (C) THE GVN SHARES OUR COUNTER-TERRORISM CONCERNS BUT HAS RAISED REAL CONCERNS ABOUT ITS OWN ABILITY TO CARRY OUT A NUMBER OF THE PROPOSED ACTIONS UNDER STAR. THERE IS AN HONEST LACK OF PERSONNEL, RESOURCES, AND TRAINING THAT POSES DIFFICULTIES. THE GVN WILL PUSH FOR LONGER DEADLINES FOR ITSELF AND OTHER DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. IT MAY WELL PUSH TO TAKE A PATHFINDER APPROACH TO THE STAR (AND OTHER) CT INITIATIVES. IT WILL PUSH FOR THE U.S. AND OTHER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES TO ATTACH SPECIFIC OFFERS OF TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO THE VARIOUS CT ACTION ITEMS. ¶7. (C) THE GVN OFFICIALLY SUPPORTS APEC ACTIONS THAT SUPPORT THE BOGOR GOALS BUT HAS NOT REALLY ARTICULATED WHAT THAT MEANS IN PRACTICAL ACTION. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ2722 PAGE 01 HANOI 02465 02 OF 02 100745Z ACTION INR-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AGRE-00 AID-00 AIT-03 AMAD-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 DS-00 EAP-00 EB-00 EUR-00 OIGO-00 E-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 TEDE-00 LAB-01 MMP-00 MOFM-05 MOF-01 DCP-01 NSAE-00 OIG-03 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 EPAE-00 DSCC-00 LBA-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /016W -------------- F4DEDB 100807Z /38 R 100741Z OCT 02 FM AMEMBASSY HANOI TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7765 INFO APEC COLLECTIVE C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HANOI 002465 SIPDIS ¶8. (C) REGARDING THE LEADERS' MEETINGS, WE HAVE HEARD NO CRITICISM FROM THE TOP LEVELS OF THE GVN, BUT AT THE WORKING LEVEL, OFFICIALS COMPLAIN ABOUT THE QUANTITY OF WORK INVOLVED AND THAT THE MEETINGS HAVE "TOO MUCH SHOW AND NOT ENOUGH SUBSTANCE." ¶9. (C) SENIOR LEVEL GVN OFFICIALS PRAISE APEC AND CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 02465 02 OF 02 100745Z VIETNAM'S PARTICIPATION IN IT, BUT HAVE HAD LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE COMMENT ON THE FUTURE DIRECTION FOR THE ORGANIZATION OR ITS MANAGEMENT. IT WORKS FOR THEM, APPARENTLY. HOWEVER, AT THE WORKING LEVEL, WE HAVE HEARD SERIOUS CONCERNS REGARDING THE INCREDIBLY BROAD REACH OF APEC -- "SO MANY ISSUES, SO MANY PROPOSALS, AND NO TIME TO DEAL WITH THEM." MOT OFFICIALS HAVE COMMENTED THAT MEMBERS ARE SO OVERWHELMED THAT THEY JUST APPROVE INITIATIVES BECAUSE IT'S EASIER THAN ACTUALLY READING THE DOCUMENTS AND DEBATING THE ISSUES. THEY HAVE ALSO COMPLAINED THAT THE RESULT IS THAT NO ONE FEELS COMPELLED ACTUALLY TO IMPLEMENT THE INITIATIVES, INCLUDING THEIR OWN GOVERNMENT (THEY HAVE SOMETIMES HAD THE SAME COMPLAINT ABOUT ASEAN). ¶10. (C) GVN OFFICIALS ARE RETICENT TO DISCUSS THE ISSUE OF THE PRC'S ATTITUDE TOWARD TAIPEI IN APEC BEYOND THE GVN'S OFT-STATED "ONE CHINA" POLICY AND ITS AGREEMENT THAT APEC IS NOT A POLITICAL FORUM AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AS SUCH. ¶11. (C) MOFA AND MOT OFFICIALS ARE "POSITIVE" BUT NON- COMMITTAL REGARDING APEC FTAS. IN THEORY, THEY AGREE THAT IT IS DESIRABLE TO WORK TOWARD FTAS IN APEC, BUT IN REALITY, THE GVN WOULD HAVE DIFFICULTY MAKING ANY SUCH COMMITMENTS AT THIS TIME. ¶12. (C) THE GVN IS IN FAVOR OF THE PATHFINDER INITIATIVE BECAUSE IT ALLOWS VIETNAM TO OPT OUT OF TECHNICALLY OR POLITICALLY DIFFICULT INITIATIVES. AT THE SAME TIME, GVN OFFICIALS WORRY THAT TOO MANY INITIATIVES WILL GO THE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 02465 02 OF 02 100745Z PATHFINDER WAY AND VIETNAM WILL BE LEFT EVEN FURTHER BEHIND. THE GVN WILL LIKELY PUSH FOR A "SPECIFIC PLAN" THAT LAYS OUT POSSIBLE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO THOSE COUNTRIES THAT OPT OUT OF PATHFINDER INITIATIVES, ALLOWING THEM TO CATCH UP IN A REASONABLE TIME PERIOD. ¶13. (C) THE VIETNAMESE DELEGATION TO THE OCTOBER MEETINGS WILL BE LED BY PRIME MINISTER PHAN VAN KHAI, AND INCLUDE FOREIGN MINISTER NGUYEN DY NIEN, DEPUTY MINISTER OF TRADE LE DANH VINH AND OTHER LOWER LEVEL OFFICIALS WORKING ON APEC ISSUES. THE GVN HAS REPEATEDLY REQUESTED A BILAT WITH PRESIDENT BUSH BUT UNDERSTAND THAT IT IS UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN, APART FROM THE PROXIMITY OF THE PRESIDENT AND PRIME MINISTER AT THE DINNER AND LUNCH FOR LEADERS (AT WHICH A WHISPER INTERPRETER WILL BE ALLOWED THIS YEAR, UNLIKE IN SHANGHAI). BURGHARDT CONFIDENTIAL