LEADERSHIP RUMBLINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001760 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/12 TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS ECON PREL VM DPOL SUBJECT: LEADERSHIP RUMBLINGS REF: HANOI 1666 ¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR RAYMOND BURGHARDT, REASON: 1.5 (D) ¶2. (C) SUMMARY. THE LEADERSHIP TURNOVER AT THE 11TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (NA) COULD BE BROADER THAN EARLIER CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 01760 01 OF 02 120956Z EXPECTED AS THE PARTY SEEKS TO DEMONSTRATE ITS VIGILANCE AGAINST CORRUPTION. UNDER ONE SCENARIO, THE NA CHAIRMAN COULD BE FORCED OUT AND REPLACED BY CURRENT PRIME MINISTER KHAI, WHILE HCMC CHIEF TRIET TAKES OVER THE TOP GOVERNMENT JOB. SENIOR LEVEL CHANGES AT THE MINISTRY OF PUBLIC SECURITY, INCLUDING POSSIBLY THE 66- YEAR OLD MINISTER, ARE ALSO LIKELY. NO FACTS ARE YET AVAILABLE, BUT THE VIVID RUMOR MILL IS A RESULT OF THE CLOSED NATURE OF THIS SOCIETY AS WELL AS AN INDICATION OF AT LEAST SOME ELITE DISSATISFACTION WITH PERCEIVED CORRUPT ACTIVITIES OF SOME SENIOR LEADERS. MAJOR POLICY SHIFTS THAT WOULD AFFECT US INTERESTS REMAIN UNLIKELY EVEN UNDER SUCH SCENARIOS. END SUMMARY. ¶3. (C) ACCORDING TO NOTED PRO-DEMOCRACY AND ANTI- CORRUPTION ACTIVIST DR. NGUYEN THANH GIANG (PLEASE PROTECT),THE FALLOUT FROM THE NAM CAM CORRUPTION CASE CONTINUES TO AFFECT LAST-MINUTE DECISION-MAKING AT THE ONGOING 6TH PARTY PLENUM IN PREPARATION FOR THE OPENING OF THE 11TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (REFTEL),WHICH HAS NOW BEEN RESCHEDULED TO BEGIN ON JULY 17. GIANG TOLD POL/C AND POLOFF ON JULY 12 THAT HE BELIEVES PERSONNEL SHIFTS COULD BE EVEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. HIS SOURCES TELL HIM THAT NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CHAIRMAN NGUYEN VAN AN HAS RECENTLY BEEN ACCUSED OF ACCEPTING BRIBES FROM NAM CAM SEVERAL YEARS AGO IN HIS CAPACITY AS CHIEF OF THE PARTY'S PERSONNEL AND ORGANIZATION COMMISSION; AN MAY NOW BE FORCED TO STEP DOWN, CONTRARY TO EARLIER PREDICTIONS. ¶4. (C) GIANG SAID THAT, UNDER THIS SCENARIO, PRIME CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 01760 01 OF 02 120956Z MINISTER PHAN VAN KHAI -- PREDICTED BY MOST OBSERVERS TO REMAIN IN OFFICE, BUT ONLY FOR 1-2 MORE YEARS -- WOULD MOVE OVER TO TAKE AN'S PLACE. GIANG NOTED THAT KHAI'S OWN REPUTATION IS INCREASINGLY SOILED BY THE ACTIVITIES OF KHAI'S SON, A RUMOR WE HAVE ALSO HEARD FROM OTHER HANOI RESIDENTS. WIVES OF AT LEAST FIVE PROMINENT SENIOR PARTY FIGURES, INCLUDING AN, KHAI, FORMER PRIME MINISTER VO VAN KIET, AND MPS' HUONG, ARE ALSO ALLEGED TO HAVE HAD LINKS WITH NAM CAM DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY, GIANG ADDED. ¶5. (C) IF KHAI MOVES TO THE NA, GIANG PREDICTED THAT HO CHI MINH CITY PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN MINH TRIET WOULD TAKE OVER AS PRIME MINISTER. ALTHOUGH MANY OBSERVERS HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE NAM CAM CASE WOULD HURT TRIET GIVEN THE HCMC NEXUS, GIANG STRESSED THAT NAM CAM'S MOST NOTORIOUS ACTIVITIES TOOK PLACE BEFORE TRIET MOVED TO HCMC, AND THAT HIS ARREST ACTUALLY HAPPENED ON TRIET'S WATCH. ALLEGATIONS OF CORRUPTION AGAINST THE OTHER MAIN CONTENDER FOR THE PM SLOT, DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN TAN DUNG, HAVE HURT THE LATTER'S CHANCES, GIANG NOTED. ¶6. (C) GIANG ALSO EXPRESSED CERTAINTY THAT MINISTER OF PUBLIC SECURITY LT. GENERAL LE MINH HUONG WOULD ALSO BE FORCED TO RETIRE DUE TO THE NAM CAM CASE, ALONG WITH ONE OR TWO DEPUTY MINISTERS. (NOTE: ADDITIONALLY, GENERAL HUONG MAY HAVE HEALTH PROBLEMS; HE SEEMED NOTABLY PALSIED DURING AMBASSADOR'S MAY 14 MEETING WITH HIM. END NOTE) HE PREDICTED THAT HUONG'S REPLACEMENT WOULD BE POLITBURO SECRETARIAT MEMBER TRUONG VINH CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 01760 01 OF 02 120956Z TRONG. SEPARATELY, A SENIOR EDITOR AT QUAN DOI NHAN DAN (PEOPLE'S ARMY) HAD PREDICTED TO POL/C ON JULY 4 THAT AN "OUTSIDER" WOULD MOVE IN TO TAKE OVER MPS AS ONE OF THE "SURPRISES" AT THIS YEAR'S NA OPENING SESSION. ¶7. (C) OTHER SOURCES HAVE SPECULATED THAT CURRENT FOREIGN MINISTER NGUYEN DY NIEN MAY MOVE TO THE NA AS VICE CHAIRMAN, WITH CURRENT MINISTER OF TRADE VU KHOAN TAKING OVER THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS PORTFOLIO AS WELL AS THE DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER SLOT TO BE VACATED BY NGUYEN MANH CAM. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: IN A CLOSED SOCIETY LIKE VIETNAM'S, THE RUMOR MILL IS HARD AT WORK TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS GOING ON BEHIND THE OPAQUE WALLS OF THE RECLUSIVE COMMUNIST PARTY. WHILE THE PARTY SEEKS TO MAKE A GOOD SHOW OF GOING AFTER CORRUPT OFFICIALS, THESE KIND OF RUMORS INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME WELL- CONNECTED HANOI RESIDENTS ARE DISSATISFIED WITH MANY IN THE LEADERSHIP AND BELIEVE CORRUPTION TO REACH THE VERY TOP. BARRING A FULL HOUSE-CLEANING -- WHICH REMAINS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ5891 PAGE 01 HANOI 01760 02 OF 02 120956Z ACTION EAP-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 COME-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 VCE-00 NSAE-00 TRSE-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /002W -------------- CA381F 120957Z /38 R 120950Z JUL 02 FM AMEMBASSY HANOI TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6995 INFO AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH AMEMBASSY VIENTIANE USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HANOI 001760 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV EXTREMELY UNLIKELY -- IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE PARTY TO RESTORE CONFIDENCE THAT IT IS MOVING EFFECTIVELY AGAINST CORRUPT OFFICIALS. THE PARTY WILL ALSO NEED TO WALK A FINE LINE IN ORDER TO PROJECT AN IMAGE OF STABILITY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SHUFFLING THE LEADERSHIP DECK TO ADDRESS SUCH CONCERNS. THE BOTTOM LINE FOR US INTERESTS REMAINS THAT NO COMBINATION OF CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 01760 02 OF 02 120956Z LEADERSHIP SHIFTS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN MAJOR DEVIATIONS BY THE PARTY AND GVN FROM THE CURRENT CAUTIOUSLY PRO-DEVELOPMENTAL AND PRO-ECONOMIC REFORM PATH. BURGHARDT CONFIDENTIAL