PROSPECTS FOR LEADERSHIP STABILITY IN VIETNAM

C O N F I D E N T I A L HANOI 001666 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/12 TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR VM DPOL SUBJECT: PROSPECTS FOR LEADERSHIP STABILITY IN VIETNAM REF: HANOI 1517 ¶1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR RAYMOND BURGHARDT, REASON: 1.5 (D) CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 01666 020959Z ¶2. (C) SUMMARY. A PARTY PLENUM AND NEW NATIONAL ASSEMBLY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS WILL DECIDE ON SEVERAL NEW KEY LEADERS. WHILE SOME PERSONNEL JOCKEYING PROBABLY CONTINUES, WE DETECT FEW, IF ANY, GENUINE DEBATES ON POLICY DIRECTION. WE ANTICIPATE THAT THE NEW LINE-UP WILL CONTINUE TO BE LARGELY COLLECTIVE AND PRAGMATIC IN DECISION-MAKING AS WELL AS GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ECONOMIC REFORM AND DIPLOMATIC INTEGRATION INTO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. WE BELIEVE IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO BUILD ON THE POSITIVE MOMENTUM IN BILATERAL TIES WITH AN ACTIVE SERIES OF HIGH LEVEL VISITS IN BOTH DIRECTIONS OVER THE NEXT YEAR AND BEYOND. END SUMMARY. ¶3. (C) THE EXPECTED SIXTH PLENUM OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE OF THE NINTH CONGRESS OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF VIETNAM (CPV) JULY 4-15 AND THE OPENING OF THE 11TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (NA) ON JULY 19 WILL LEAD TO A NEW ROUND OF SENIOR LEADERSHIP SHIFTS WITHIN THE GVN (REFTEL). AMONG THE LIKELY CHANGES WILL BE ONE OR TWO DEPUTY PRIME MINISTERS, AS MANY AS HALF A DOZEN MINISTERS, POSSIBLY THE SUPREME PROCURATOR, AND SEVERAL NA COMMITTEE CHIEFS, INCLUDING FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND ECONOMIC AND BUDGET AFFAIRS. THE PRESIDENT, PRIME MINISTER, AND CHAIRMAN OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ARE EXPECTED TO WIN RE-ELECTION EASILY. ¶4. (C) MUCH OF THE BACK-DOOR BARGAINING ON PERSONNEL SHIFTS HAS PROBABLY ALREADY CONCLUDED, WITH THE PLENUM EXPECTED TO GIVE ITS FINAL BLESSING IN PRIVATE TO THE NEW SLATE AND THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, AFTER TOKEN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 01666 020959Z DISCUSSION, TO RATIFY THESE CHOICES OBEDIENTLY. UNLIKE THE RIVALRY BETWEEN THEN-GENERAL SECRETARY LE KHA PHIEU AND EVENTUAL GENERAL SECRETARY NONG DUC MANH IN THE RUN-UP TO THE 2001 NINTH PARTY CONGRESS, HOWEVER, THESE PERSONNEL DECISIONS APPEAR TO HAVE VERY LITTLE TO DO WITH IDEOLOGY OR SETTING A DIFFERENT POLICY COURSE FOR VIETNAM OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. ¶5. (C) THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS ESSENTIALLY MADE THE BOTTOM LINE CHOICES IN FAVOR OF EXPANDED ECONOMIC REFORM, HIGHER PRIORITY TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE, MAINTENANCE OF DOMESTIC STABILITY, AND CONTINUED INTEGRATION INTO THE REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. WE SEE NO ONE ON THE HORIZON WITHIN THE CURRENT LEADERSHIP OR POTENTIAL LEADERSHIP RANKS WHO IS STAKING AN OPPOSITION TO THIS POLICY FRAMEWORK OR WHO MIGHT WISH TO BACKTRACK ON NINTH PARTY CONGRESS PRIORITIES. INDEED, SOME OF THE POTENTIAL WINNERS FROM THE LEADERSHIP SWEEPSTAKES, SUCH AS CURRENT MINISTER OF TRADE VU KHOAN (A LIKELY DPM) OR HO CHI MINH CITY PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN MINH TRIET (STILL A DARK HORSE CANDIDATE AS DPM) MIGHT SEEK FURTHER TO ENERGIZE THE GVN'S ECONOMIC REFORM PROCESS ONCE IN OFFICE. NO ONE IN SIGHT, HOWEVER, APPEARS TO BE ADVOCATING FOR SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL REFORM, APART FROM AN ONGOING IF SEEMINGLY STERILE CAMPAIGN TO STRENGTHEN "GRASSROOTS DEMOCRACY" AND NUMEROUS SUCCESSFUL PROGRAMS (INCLUDING WITH USG SUPPORT) ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF RULE OF LAW. ¶6. (C) THE CPV AND GVN LEADERSHIP HAS WEATHERED CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 01666 020959Z NUMEROUS CHALLENGES SINCE NATIONAL UNIFICATION IN 1975, PARTICULARLY THE DARK DAYS OF ISOLATION AND ECONOMIC DISASTER IN THE 1980'S AND THE FALL-OUT FROM THE 1997 ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS. WHAT WE ARE LEFT WITH IS NOT A GENERATION OF RISK TAKERS OR VISIONARIES, BUT RATHER A MORE OR LESS GENUINELY COLLECTIVE LEADERSHIP (WITHOUT ANY HOTSHOTS OR STARS) THAT IS INCREASINGLY PRAGMATIC RATHER THAN DOGMATIC. THESE INDIVIDUALS APPARENTLY UNDERSTAND AND AGREE ON THE CRITICAL NEED FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND JOB CREATION, WHILE NONETHELESS STRIVING TO MINIMIZE THREATS TO SOCIAL ORDER, DOMESTIC STABILITY, AND MAINTENANCE OF CPV POLITICAL POWER. ¶7. (C) EMBASSY BELIEVES THAT THE NEW LEADERSHIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMPOSED OF INDIVIDUALS WITH WHOM THE USG CAN WORK PRODUCTIVELY. WE LOOK FORWARD TO COORDINATING WITH WASHINGTON AGENCIES ON AN ACTIVE SCHEDULE OF VISITS IN BOTH DIRECTIONS OVER THE NEXT YEAR AND BEYOND IN ORDER TO BUILD ON THE POSITIVE MOMENTUM IN OUR BILATERAL TIES. BURGHARDT CONFIDENTIAL