Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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02HANOI1571 | 2002-06-19 10:08:00 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Hanoi |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. 191008Z Jun 02 2002HANOI01571 - CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3430 PAGE 01 HANOI 01571 01 OF 02 191009Z ACTION EAP-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /006W ------------------BF585F 191010Z /38 FM AMEMBASSY HANOI TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6800 INFO AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH AMEMBASSY VIENTIANE SECDEF WASHDC USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001571 |
1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POL/C SCOTT BELLARD, REASON: 1.5 (D) CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 01571 01 OF 02 191009Z 2. (C) SUMMARY. AN EXPECTED CPV PLENUM IN JULY SHOULD MAKE FINAL DECISIONS ON THE NEW GVN LEADERSHIP LINE-UP, AND MAY ALSO BLESS PUNISHMENTS AGAINST SEVERAL SENIOR OFFICIALS BELIEVED TO BE GUILTY OF CORRUPTION OR OTHER WRONG-DOING. THESE BEHIND-THE-SCENES DELIBERATIONS REMAIN DIFFICULT TO VERIFY, AND WE EXPECT VARIOUS RUMORS WILL CONTINUE TO EMERGE UNTIL THE DETAILS HAVE BEEN PINNED DOWN IN PRIVATE. END SUMMARY. 3. (C) ACCORDING TO LE THO BINH, CHIEF OF THE EDITORIAL BOARD OF "COUNTRYSIDE TODAY," THE SIXTH PLENUM OF THE NINTH PARTY CONGRESS OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF VIETNAM (CPV) HAS BEEN DELAYED SEVERAL TIMES DUE TO ONGOING INTERNAL DEBATES ABOUT THE NEW GVN LEADERSHIP STRUCTURE THAT WILL BE VOTED UPON BY THE 11TH NATIONAL ASSEMBLY (NA) IN JULY (REF A). THE NA MUST BY LAW MEET BY JULY 19 -- WITHIN TWO MONTHS FROM THE MAY ELECTIONS -- AND SEVERAL NA SOURCES HAVE SEPARATELY PREDICTED THE OPENING DATE WILL BE JULY 14. 4. (C) BINH, PREVIOUSLY A HARD-CHARGING INVESTIGATIVE REPORTER WITH TUOI TRE NEWSPAPER, TOLD POLOFF ON JUNE 18 THAT THE PLENUM HAD INITIALLY BEEN PROPOSED FOR JUNE 15 OR 17, BUT WILL NOW MORE PROBABLY BEGIN O/A JULY 5. BINH'S CPV SOURCES HAVE CLAIMED THAT THE NINE OUT OF THE FIFTEEN POLIBURO MEMBERS HAVE AGREED THAT PRIME MINISTER PHAN VAN KHAI SHOULD REMAIN IN OFFICE FOR NOW, A RUMOR THAT IS ALSO WIDELY CIRCULATING ELSEWHERE. PRESIDENT TRAN DUC LUONG, DANANG PARTY CHIEF PHAN DIEN, MASS MOBILIZATION CHIEF TRUONG QUANG DUOC, AND ECONOMIC CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HANOI 01571 01 OF 02 191009Z COMMISSION CHIEF TRUONG TAN SANG REPORTEDLY HAD NONETHELESS EXPRESSED THEIR SUPPORT WITHIN THE POLITBURO FOR DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER NGUYEN TAN DUNG TO MOVE INTO THE TOP SPOT THIS SUMMER. 5. (C) MINISTER OF TRADE VU KHOAN IS STILL SEEN BY BINH'S CONTACTS (AND OTHERS) TO BE THE HANDS-ON FAVORITE TO MOVE UP TO A DPM POSITION, MOST PROBABLY THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS/TRADE SLOT NOW FILLED BY DPM NGUYEN MANH CAM. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION THAT THE NUMBER OF DPM SLOTS COULD DECLINE FROM FOUR TO THREE WITH THE EXPECTED RETIREMENTS OF DPM CAM AND DPM NGUYEN CONG TAN. FORMER MINISTER OF TRADE AND CURRENT NGHE AN PROVINCIAL PARTY BOSS TRUONG DINH TUYEN IS RUMORED TO BE A FAVORITE TO REPLACE VU KHOAN AT MOT, DESPITE WISHES OF SOME SENIOR MOT OFFICIALS FOR AN IN-HOUSE CANDIDATE AND SOME DISSATISFACTION WITH TUYEN'S EARLIER PERFORMANCE AT MOT (INCLUDING OVER BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENT NEGOTIATIONS). 6. (C) THE WIDELY-RUMORED RETIREMENT OF MINISTER OF PUBLIC SECURITY LT. GENERAL LE MINH HUONG IS REPORTEDLY RUNNING INTO DIFFICULTIES IN LIGHT OF ALLEGATIONS AGAINST CURRENT VICE MINISTERS (PARA 8). SOME OF BINH'S CONTACTS HAVE SPECULATED THAT EXTENSION OF MPS' HUONG MIGHT "FOR BALANCE" NECESSITATE A SIMILAR EXTENSION OF MINISTER OF DEFENSE LT. GENERAL PHAM VAN TRA, WHO WAS RE-ELECTED TO THE NA IN MAY. (MOD OFFICIALS HAVE SEPARATELY INDICATED THAT GENERAL TRA WILL STILL BE IN PLACE THIS FALL TO ACCEPT THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE'S RECIPROCAL INVITATION TO VISIT.) SIPDIS CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HANOI 01571 01 OF 02 191009Z OTHER SOURCES HAVE INDICATED THAT MINISTER OF JUSTICE LOC IS A SURE BET TO STEP DOWN; MOJ CONTACTS HAVE TOLD POLOFFS PRIVATELY THAT VICE MINISTER UONG CHU LUU (ALREADY A CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBER AND NA DELEGATE) WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY REPLACE LOC, WHICH WILL PROBABLY MAKE LUU THE YOUNGEST MINISTER. AT THE MINISTRY OF PLANNING AND INVESTMENT, MINISTER TRAN XUAN GIA IS WIDELY EXPECTED TO STEP DOWN IN FAVOR OF VICE MINISTER VO HONG PHUC. 7. (C) ACCORDING TO BINH'S SOURCES, THE CPV'S INVESTIGATION COMMISSION WILL ALSO REPORT TO THE PLENUM ON A NUMBER OF HIGH-RANKING CPV MEMBERS AND GVN OFFICIALS WHO SHOULD FACE CENSURE AND/OR PUNISHMENT; 15 OF THEM ARE REPORTEDLY NEW NA MEMBERS. AMONG THE EXPECTED VICTIMS ARE FORMER "VOICE OF VIETNAM" DIRECTOR GENERAL TRAN MAI HANH AND MPS VICE MINISTER BUI QUOC HUY, BOTH OF WHOM HAVE BEEN CAUGHT UP IN THE ONGOING INVESTIGATION OF HO CHI MINH CITY "MAFIA" KING "NAM CAM" (REF B). 8. (U) "TUOI TRE" REPORTED ON JUNE 19 THAT THE POLITBURO AND SECRETARIAT HAD DECIDED TO EXAMINE MORE CLOSELY THE ACTIONS OF THE FOLLOWING CPV ORGANS AND CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3434 PAGE 01 HANOI 01571 02 OF 02 191009Z ACTION EAP-00 INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 DINT-00 DOEE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 ECA-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 /006W -------------------------- BF5868 191011Z /38 R 191008Z JUN 02 FM AMEMBASSY HANOI TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6801 INFO AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH AMEMBASSY VIENTIANE SECDEF WASHDC USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HANOI 001571 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV INDIVIDUALS IN CONNECTION WITH THE NAM CAM CASE: -- CENTRAL PUBLIC SECURITY PARTY COMMITTEE -- SUPREME PEOPLE'S PROCURACY PARTY COMMITTEE -- STANDING COMMITTEE OF THE HCMC PARTY COMMITTEE CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 HANOI 01571 02 OF 02 191009Z -- LT. GEN. BUI BUI QUOC HUY, MPS VICE MINISTER, CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBER, AND FORMER HCMC POLICE CHIEF -- MAJOR GENERAL HOANG NGOC NHAT, MPS VICE MINISTER -- MAJOR GENERAL DO NAM, MPS DIRECTOR FOR PRISONS -- PHAM SY CHIEN, FORMER CHIEF PROCURATOR, SUPREME PEOPLE'S PROCURACY -- TRAN MAI HAN, FORMER DIRECTOR GENERAL OF VOICE OF VIETNAM -- LE THANH DAO, FORMER CHIEF PROCURATOR, SUPREME PEOPLE'S PROCURACY 9. (C) COMMENT: MUCH IS AT STAKE IN THE LEADERSHIP SWEEPSTAKES, NOT ONLY IN TERMS OF PERSONAL FIEFDOMS BUT ALSO IN CONVINCING THE PUBLIC THAT THE CPV AND GVN TAKE SERIOUSLY THESE ALLEGATIONS OF CORRUPTION AND MISCONDUCT AND ARE PREPARED TO MOVE AGAINST EVEN SENIOR RANKING OFFICIALS. THE EXTENSIVE MEDIA COVERAGE GIVEN TO THE NAM CAM CASE CANNOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THE PROMOTION ASPIRATIONS OF HCMC PARTY CHIEF NGUYEN MINH TRIET, ANOTHER FRONT-RUNNER AS EVENTUAL SUCCESSOR TO PM KHAI. THE MEDIA CAMPAIGN MAY INDEED BE AN INDIRECT POLITICAL ATTACK ON TRIET HIMSELF. WE EXPECT THE RUMOR MILL TO CONTINUE TO FLOURISH IN THE RUN-UP TO THE PARTY PLENUM AND NA OPENING SESSION. AT THE SAME TIME, WE PREDICT A PUBLIC SHOW OF UNITY WITHIN THE CPV AND NA ONCE THESE PERSONNEL AND PUNISHMENT DECISIONS ALIKE HAVE BEEN MADE IN PRIVATE. PORTER CONFIDENTIAL |