ASAD WARNS THAT STRIKING IRAQ WOULD CREATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAMASCUS 000625

E.O. 12958: DECL 02/19/02
TAGS: PGOV PREL ISRAEL'>IS SY
SUBJECT: ASAD WARNS THAT STRIKING IRAQ WOULD CREATE
CHAOS IN REGION

REF: FBIS 171750Z FEB 02; SERIAL EUP20020217000115

CLASSIFIED BY CDA PHILO L. DIBBLE, REASONS 1.5 B/D.


1. (C) SUMMARY. IN A WIDE-RANGING INTERVIEW WITH
ITALIAN DAILY CORRIERE DELLA SERA, BASHAR AL-ASAD
WARNED THAT A STRIKE AGAINST IRAQ WOULD DESTABILIZE
THE REGION. HE ALSO DENIED THAT SYRIAN OIL IMPORTS OF
IRAQI OIL VIOLATED UNSCRS; REPEATED SYRIA'S COMMITMENT
TO A COMPREHENSIVE PEACE; SAID THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION
LACKS A CLEAR VISION REGARDING THE MEPN AND SPEAKS
WITH A MULTIPLICITY OF VOICES; CLAIMED A "FREE PRESS"
AND PRIVATE UNIVERSITIES AMONG THE ACHIEVEMENTS OF HIS
PRESIDENCY; SAID INDIVIDUAL HUMAN RIGHTS MUST NOT
CONFLICT WITH THE RIGHTS OF SOCIETY; SAID HIS PERSONAL
INTERESTS INCLUDE EXERCISING, READING ABOUT HISTORY,
COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY AND "ANYTHING DIGITAL;" AND CALLED
FOR INCREASED DIRECT CONTACTS BETWEEN THE WEST AND
MUSLIM COUNTRIES TO OVERCOME GLOBAL MISUNDERSTANDING.
ASAD'S INTERVIEW WAS NOTEWORTHY FOR THE WIDE RANGE OF
SUBJECTS DISCUSSED, HIS EVIDENT SELF-CONFIDENCE, AND
THE EVOLUTION OF A PROFESSORIAL STYLE THAT RESULTS IN
LENGTHY (AND SOMETIMES UNWISE) EXPLANATIONS OF SYRIAN
POSITIONS. HE REMAINS, IN OUR VIEW, VERY MUCH A WORK
IN PROGRESS, BUT ONE WHOSE PROFESSED INTEREST IN
ENGAGING THE WEST IS WORTH TESTING. END SUMMARY


2. (C) IN AN INTERVIEW PUBLISHED IN THE ITALIAN
DAILY "CORRIERE DELLA SERA," IN ADVANCE OF HIS 19
FEBRUARY VISIT TO ITALY, SYRIAN PRESIDENT BASHAR AL-
ASAD COVERED TOPICS RANGING FROM IRAQ AND THE MEPN TO
HIS HOBBIES. THREE VERSIONS OF THE INTERVIEW
APPEARED: THE CORRIERE DELLA SERA PUBLISHED EXCERPTS
OF THE INTERVIEW IN ITALIAN (TRANSLATED BY FBIS IN
REFTEL),WHILE SYRIAN AND REGIONAL ARABIC MEDIA
PUBLISHED A LONGER "FULL TEXT" IN ARABIC, AND THE
SYRIA TIMES PUBLISHED A "FULL TEXT" IN ENGLISH THAT
INCLUDED ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS THAT WERE NOT IN THE
ITALIAN OR ARABIC VERSIONS. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SYRIA
TIMES VERSION OF THE INTERVIEW FOLLOW.

--------------
WARNING ON IRAQ
--------------


3. (U) "WHAT I ASK MYSELF IS THIS: IS THERE ANY
JUSTIFICATION FOR AN ATTACK ON IRAQ? DOES AN ATTACK
BY ANY CHANCE FORM PART OF THE STRUGGLE AGAINST
TERRORISM? IN ATTACKING IRAQ DOES ONE DEFEND JUSTICE
AND DEMOCRACY, OR DOES ONE FUEL PRECISELY INJUSTICE
AND THE ABSENCE OF HUMAN RIGHTS? I BELIEVE THAT AN
ATTACK WOULD BE AGAINST JUSTICE AND AGAINST HUMAN
RIGHTS. ALL THE ARAB AND MUSLIM COUNTRIES, WITHOUT
EXCEPTION, ARE OPPOSED TO IT. AND ALL THE EUROPEAN
ENVOYS WITH WHOM I HAVE MET, WITHOUT EXCEPTION, HAVE
EXPRESSED THEMSELVES IN THE SAME WAY."


4. (U) "AN ATTACK ON IRAQ WOULD BE EXTREMELY SERIOUS.
THE PEOPLE'S WRATH WOULD BECOME FAR MORE DANGEROUS
THAN POLITICAL REACTIONS. I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE
UNITED STATES NEEDS TO ATTRACT ANY FURTHER HATRED."

--------------
SYRIA/IRAQ PIPELINE NOT A VIOLATION?
--------------


5. (C) FROM ARABIC VERSION: "CONCERNING THE OIL, WE
ANNOUNCED OUR OPINION VERY CLEARLY FROM THE BEGINNING.
WE SAID THAT THERE WAS OLD OIL PIPELINE BETWEEN US AND
IRAQ THAT WE TESTED LAST YEAR. WHEN WE SAY WE ARE
TESTING, WE ARE DEFINITELY TESTING IT WITH OIL AND NOT
WITH WATER OR AIR. AND CERTAINLY THE DIRECTION IS
FROM IRAQ TO SYRIA BECAUSE WE HAVE NO OIL TO SEND TO
IRAQ. AND I HAVE SAID THIS TO AMERICAN OFFICIALS.
BUT THIS IS A VERY OLD PIPELINE THAT HAS BEEN THERE
SINCE THE FIFTIES, AND WHEN WE HAD OUR POLITICAL
DIFFERENCES WITH IRAQ, THIS PIPELINE WAS NOT USED.
ITS OPERATION IS DIFFICULT, WHICH PROMPTED US TO
ANNOUNCE THAT WE ARE GOING TO BUILD A NEW PIPELINE
WITH MUCH BIGGER CAPACITY. AND WE WERE DISCUSSING
THIS PIPELINE WITH COUNTRIES IN THE REGION AND WITH
EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. AND WE SAID THAT WITH THIS NEW
PIPELINE OR IN ANY OIL TRANSACTIONS WITH IRAQ, WE WILL
ABIDE BY UN RESOLUTIONS."


6. (U) THE SYRIA TIMES VERSION ADDS: "AND WE SAID
THAT WITH THIS NEW PIPELINE WITH IRAQ, WE ARE GOING TO
BE COMMITTED TO UN RESOLUTIONS AND WE WERE SUPPOSED TO
SUBMIT A REQUEST FOR A MEETING THAT THE UN SHOULD
CONVENE ABOUT THIS ISSUE AT THE END OF LAST SUMMER,
AND THEN THIS MEETING WAS POSTPONED. AND THEREFORE,
WE ARE NOT VIOLATING ANY U.N. RESOLUTIONS."

--------------
NO CONDITIONS FOR PEACE
--------------


7. (U) "SYRIA HAS NEVER SET ANY CONDITIONS, AND WE
ALWAYS SAY THAT SYRIA DOES NOT HAVE CERTAIN CONDITIONS
AT ALL. WHEN SYRIA SPEAKS ABOUT THE BASES FOR PEACE
IT REFERS TO THE NECESSITY OF IMPLEMENTING SECURITY
COUNCIL RESOLUTIONS AND MADRID'S TERMS OF REFERENCE.
THESE TERMS OF REFERENCE WERE NOT INVENTED BY SYRIA,
RATHER THEY WERE AMERICAN IDEAS AND THEY BECAME
INTERNATIONAL RESOLUTIONS ONCE THEY WERE APPROVED BY
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. ... HENCE, OUR CONDITIONS
ARE THE CONDITIONS OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND
THEY STIPULATE THE FULL RETURN OF SYRIAN RIGHTS."

--------------
AMERICA HAS NO VISION
--------------


8. (U) "UNTIL NOW THE ROLE THAT HAD BEEN GIVEN TO
EUROPE BY THE UNITED STATES IS TO MARKET AMERICAN
IDEAS, BUT HAS NOT YET BEEN ALLOWED TO PLAY A ROLE OF
ITS OWN MAKING. BUT EVEN THE AMERICAN ADMINISTRATION
DOESN'T HAVE A CLEAR VISION OF HOW TO CONDUCT THIS
PEACE PROCESS. ...I CAN'T SEE THAT THE CIRCUMSTANCES
ARE PREPARED FOR THIS ROLE UNLESS EUROPE WANTS TO PLAY
THIS ROLE IN AN INDEPENDENT FASHION."

--------------
AND SPEAKS WITH A MULTIPLICITY OF VOICES
--------------


9. (U) "I THINK THAT IF THE AMERICAN ADMINISTRATION
IS ABLE TO FORMULATE A SINGLE OPINION, THEN THEY COULD
PROBABLY HAVE COOPERATION WITH EUROPE. BUT YOU NEED
FIRST TO HAVE A SINGLE OPINION. THIS IS WHAT I SAID
TO WILLIAM BURNS, THE U.S. ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF
STATE, WHEN HE VISITED ME IN DAMASCUS TWO MONTHS AGO.
I SAID TO HIM: YOU ARE A GROUP OF ADMINISTRATIONS, NOT
JUST ONE ADMINISTRATION. EACH ONE OF YOUR
ADMINISTRATIONS HAS A DIFFERENT OPINION."

--------------
LEBANON: OUR PRESENCE IS TEMPORARY
--------------


10. (U) "WE DON'T BUILD OUR RELATIONS WITH LEBANON ON
THE BASIS OF THE MILITARY PRESENCE. ...THE PRESENCE IS
A TEMPORARY ONE. I THINK THE ACTUAL ACT OF
REDEPLOYMENT IS SUBJECT TO A MILITARY FACTOR AND THE
CONDITIONS THAT INFLUENCE THIS, PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH
OF LEBANON AND THE ISRAELI SITUATION."


11. (U) [ASKED ABOUT SYRIAN RELATIONS WITH ELIE
HOBEIKA] "IN FACT, THE ONE WHO SUPERVISED AND
INITIATED THE KILLINGS IS SHARON PERSONALLY." (ASAD
DID NOT MENTION HOBEIKA.)

--------------
GET TO THE ROOT CAUSES OF TERRORISM
--------------


12. (U) [REGARDING SUICIDE BOMBERS] "I CAN BRIEFLY
SAY THAT THE FRAME OF MIND THAT PUSHES PEOPLE TO DIE
IS THE RESULT OF THE ACCUMULATION OF HUGE FRUSTRATION
AND OPPRESSION THAT IS PRACTICED AGAINST THE
PALESTINIAN PEOPLE. WHETHER THE WEST AGREES OR
DIFFERS WITH THEM, THEY ARE THE RESULT OF ISRAELI
TERRORISM AGAINST THEM. WESTERN OFFICIALS WASTE THEIR
TIME IN CONDEMNING THESE PEOPLE. WHY DON'T THEY GET
REALISTIC AND GO BACK TO THE ROOT CAUSES? THESE
PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT IF THEY DON'T GO DIE IN ISRAEL,
THEY ARE GOING TO BE KILLED IN THEIR OWN HOUSES,
BECAUSE SHARON IS COMING TO THEM IN THEIR HOUSES. .WE
THINK, REGARDLESS OF OUR OWN PERSONAL OPINIONS, THAT
THE ONLY SOLUTION IS TO ADDRESS THE REAL CAUSE OF
THIS PROBLEM BY EXERTING PRESSURE ON ISRAEL TO STOP
KILLING THE PALESTINIANS."

--------------
SYRIAN UN REP COMMENTS ON 9/11
--------------


13. (U) [NO APOLOGY, BUT A LENGTHY EXPLANATION ABOUT
DIFFERING FRAMES OF REFERENCE; ESSENTIALLY, PEOPLE
FEEL MOST STRONGLY WHAT IS RELEVANT TO THEM AND THE
COMPARISON WAS BETWEEN 9/11 AND THE ACCUMULATION OF
THE PAIN INFLICTED UPON PALESTINIANS AND ARABS BY
ISRAEL SINCE 1948.]

--------------
ISLAM AND THE WEST
--------------


14. (U) IS THERE A BOOK FOR WESTERN READERS THAT CAN
EXPLAIN THE RELATION BETWEEN THE ISLAMIC WORLD AND THE
WESTERN WORLD?] "REGRETTABLY, MOST OF THE BOOKS
AVAILABLE NOW ARE WRITTEN BY NON-MUSLIMS. WE ARE DOING
SOMETHING DIFFERENT IN SYRIA, WE ARE TRYING TO CALL
FOR OTHER COUNTRIES TO CONDUCT WORKSHOPS AND SEMINARS
ABOUT ISLAM. THIS IS WHAT WE DID WITH THE AMERICANS
AND THE EUROPEANS; WE SHALL CONTINUE THESE DIALOGUES
WITH DIFFERENT COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD ABOUT MEDIA,
ACADEMIA, CULTURE, AND BUSINESS. I ADVISE THAT DIRECT
CONTACT, PERSONAL CONTACT BE ESTABLISHED."

--------------
HUMAN RIGHTS
--------------


15. (U) "FIRST, WE SAY HUMAN RIGHTS, BUT WE CAN'T
SEPARATE BETWEEN THE RIGHT OF ONE PERSON AND THE RIGHT
OF SOCIETY. SECOND, WHEN WE SAY THE RIGHT OF ONE
PERSON, IT MEANS HIS RIGHT TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
IMPROVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE COUNTRY, BUT HE HAS
NO RIGHT TO UNDERMINE THE INTEREST OF HIS COUNTRY. I
THINK THAT SOCIETIES HAVE DIFFERENT CONCEPTS OF THESE
RIGHTS ACCORDING TO THEIR CULTURAL AND HISTORICAL
DEVELOPMENTS. THEREFORE, THE POLITICAL PRISONERS YOU
HAVE TALKED ABOUT WERE IMPRISONED BECAUSE THERE WERE
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT WERE DIFFICULT AND THEY HARMED THE
REAL INTEREST OF THEIR OWN COUNTRY. THE LARGE NUMBER
OF POLITICAL PRISONERS THAT WERE LET FREE WAS DURING
THE TIME OF THE LATE PRESIDENT HAFIZ AL-ASAD, BECAUSE
THE CIRCUMSTANCES HAVE CHANGED."

--------------
ACHIEVEMENTS OF HIS PRESIDENCY?
--------------


16. (U) "WE HAVE ISSUED LAWS IN MANY DOMAINS. WE
STARTED LARGE SCALE TRAINING OF PEOPLE IN COOPERATION
WITH THE EU IN DIFFERENT FIELDS. WE STARTED A GREATER
PARTICIPATION OF ORDINARY PEOPLE TO HELP IN THE
GOVERNMENT AND THE STATE DOING THEIR WORK. WE
ACTIVATED A REAL DIALOGUE AMONG THE SYRIAN PEOPLE
ABOUT THE SYRIAN VISION OF THE FUTURE. ...WE PERMITTED
PRIVATE UNIVERSITIES IN SYRIA AND WE ALLOWED FREE
PRESS IN SYRIA! A FEW WEEKS AGO WE STARTED
INDEPENDENT BROADCASTING STATIONS."

--------------
PERSONAL QUESTIONS
--------------


17. (U) [ASKED WHETHER BEING A PRESIDENT WAS
RESTRICTIVE, SINCE HE COULDN'T GO TO THE CINEMA LIKE
ORDINARY FOLKS.] "I DON'T HAVE THE HOBBY OF GOING TO
THE CINEMA, BUT I LIKE TO MEET PEOPLE A LOT. AND I DO
THAT, I MIX WITH PEOPLE JUST AS I USED TO DO BEFORE I
BECAME A PRESIDENT, BUT LESS OFTEN BECAUSE I HAVE LESS
TIME." [INTERVIEWER: AND WHAT IS YOUR HOBBY?] "I
EXERCISE A LOT AND I READ A LOT." [ABOUT WHAT?]
"MOSTLY HISTORY. AND I LOVE TO GET TO KNOW NEW
INVENTIONS, ESPECIALLY ABOUT THE COMPUTER AND NEW
TECHNOLOGY, EVERYTHING DIGITAL." [ARE YOU FOND OF
FOOTBALL CLUBS?] "NO." [NOT EVEN WHEN YOU WERE IN
LONDON?] "NO."


18. (C) COMMENT: NOW APPARENTLY A STANDARD PRACTICE
IN ADVANCE OF VISITS ABROAD, ASAD'S INTERVIEW WAS
NOTEWORTHY FOR THE WIDE RANGE OF SUBJECTS DISCUSSED,
HIS EVIDENT SELF-CONFIDENCE, AND THE EVOLUTION OF A
PROFESSORIAL STYLE THAT RESULTS IN LENGTHY (AND
SOMETIMES UNWISE) EXPLANATIONS OF SYRIAN POSITIONS.
HIS ACCOUNT OF WHY SYRIA'S ILLICIT OIL IMPORTS FROM
IRAQ ARE NOT VIOLATING UNSCRS IS UNINFORMED OR
DISINGENUOUS. HIS TALLYING OF ACCOMPLISHMENTS, IF
LESS OUT OF SYNC WITH REALITY THAN BA'THI PROPAGANDA,
STILL STRAINS THE CREDULITY OF OBJECTIVE OBSERVERS.
WE WERE STRUCK BY HIS WILLINGNESS TO DISCUSS PURELY
PERSONAL TOPICS. HIS PREFERENCES (A COMPLETE LACK OF
INTEREST IN FOOTBALL; INTEREST IN EXERCISE AND A
PASSION FOR TECHNOLOGY) SET HIM FAR APART FROM THE OLD
GUARD OBSERVERS ON WHOM HE STILL DEPENDS. HE REMAINS,
IN OUR VIEW, VERY MUCH A WORK IN PROGRESS, BUT ONE
WHOSE PROFESSED INTEREST IN ENGAGING THE WEST IS WORTH
TESTING. END COMMENT.

DIBBLE