AS LEADERSHIP DISPUTE FLARES, SRI LANKA'S MAJOR MUSLIM PARTY MARGINALIZED IN PEACE PROCESS DEBATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 002277



SIPDIS



DEPARTMENT FOR SA AND SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD



E.O. 12958: DECL: 12-10-12

TAGS: PGOV, PTER, PINS, PHUM, CE, LTTE - Peace Process, Political Parties

SUBJECT: As leadership dispute flares, Sri Lanka's

major Muslim party marginalized in peace process debate



Refs: Colombo 2267, and previous



(U) Classified by Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of

Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b, d).



1. (C) SUMMARY: Dissension within the Sri Lanka Muslim

Congress (SLMC) continues to tear the party apart. The

two sides vying for leadership of the SLMC have taken

their increasingly fractious battle to court and to the

press. Initial fears that the SLMC's internal turmoil

would have a detrimental impact on the governing

coalition's stability and the peace process have proven

to be unfounded, thus far. Rather, the primary effect

of the turmoil appears to be the self-marginalization of

the Muslim voice in the peace process debate. END

SUMMARY.



2. (C) Legal Maneuvering. Dissension in the SLMC

continues to tear the principal Muslim party in Sri

Lanka apart. The most recent upsurge in tensions began

on December 1 when dissidents led by SLMC MPs A.L.M.

Athaulla and M. Hafrath acted to remove Rauf Hakeem as

party leader -- See Reftel. After it became clear that

both sides were not going to give in, the conflict moved

to the courts and on December 3 a Colombo court granted

an injunction request filed by the SLMC dissidents that

effectively suspended Hakeem as leader of the party. At

this point, Hakeem seemed to be on the way out. After

rushing back from Oslo (where he had been participating

in the third session of GSL-Tamil Tiger talks),Hakeem

made a comeback however. In response to a countersuit

filed by Hakeem's camp, an appeals court overruled the

initial decision and Hakeem was back as SLMC leader. On

December 13, another Colombo court is scheduled to hold

hearings to determine who the leader of the SLMC is. In

the meantime, Hakeem is claiming that the dissidents

have been expelled from the party.



3. (SBU) Battling in the Press. Aside from the legal

jousting, the two sides have increasingly taken their

struggle to the press. Barely a day goes by without

front-page articles highlighting the dueling press

conferences put on by the two sides. Articles have

cited the two camps as making the following shrill

attacks:



-- Hakeem has stated that the charges against him "are

only a pretext for certain self-serving people who are

bringing puerile arguments to get privileges and

benefits for themselves at the expense of the

community's long-term interest."



-- Hakeem has also stated that the rebels in the SLMC

are trying to "destabilize the government and the peace

process."



-- Athaulla on Hakeem: "He has a tendency of threatening

anybody who bravely indicated his stupidity."



-- Hafrath: "The party at present is in the hands of

sincere and honest workers. Several attempts have been

made in not so pleasant terms to undo the stability of

the party by certain elements."



4. (C) Ramifications for GSL and Peace Process. Initial

fears that the turmoil within the SLMC would have a

detrimental impact on the governing coalition's

stability (the SLMC is a key part of the United National

Front coalition) and the peace process have proven to be

unfounded, thus far. Although five of the 12 SLMC MPs

seem to be anti-Hakeem at this point, and the governing

coalition only holds a slim majority in Parliament, the

GSL is benefiting from the tacit support of the 16 MPs

loyal to the Tamil National Alliance (TNA). The TNA's

support gives the GSL a significant cushion in

Parliament and, as of yet, there is little sign that the

government is close to falling or that it might lose any

tight votes. In any case, although some observers

believe that they are in cahoots with the People's

Alliance (PA) opposition, the dissidents have indicated

that they would not abandon the government for now. At

the same time, while they have made some anti-peace

process statements, the dissidents have not focused

their fire on the government's peace initiative. As of

this point, their favorite target is Hakeem and what

they see as his abuse of power in running the SLMC --

not the peace process.



5. (C) COMMENT: The primary effect of the intra-SLMC

turmoil appears to be the self-marginalization of the

Muslim voice in the peace process debate. When Hakeem

was forced to withdraw from the Oslo talks, Muslims lost

their direct voice in the negotiations. In addition,

with the two sides so busy attacking each other, Muslims

have not fielded a coherent reaction to the Tigers'

recent announcement that they would explore federalism

options "in areas of historical habitation of the Tamil-

speaking people" (See Reftels). Although Muslims as

Tamil speakers are included within the ambit of this

construct, there is no sign that they are prepared to

join the debate on federalism soon. This, despite the

fact that any decisions taken on this issue could have a

significant impact on the large community of Muslims in

the east. END COMMENT.



6. (U) Minimize considered.



WILLS