C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001982

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10-23-12
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS PHUM CE NO LTTE
SUBJECT: Peace Process Update: Norwegian envoy visits;
LTTE official meets leaders; Epicenter of Muslim anger

Refs: Colombo 1975, and previous

(U) Classified by W. Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) This update of Sri Lanka's peace process reviews
the following:

-- Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister visits north and
south in run-up to second round of talks

-- Senior Tiger negotiator Balasingham continues
consultations with leadership

-- New poll highlights strong support for peace process,
as well as ethnic divisions

-- The Flavor of the Peace Process: Akkaraipattu, the
epicenter of the Muslim meltdown in the east

======================
Norwegian Envoy Visits
======================


2. (SBU) Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Vidar
Helgesen is now in Sri Lanka for an October 20-24 visit.
During the trip, Helgesen, the chief of the Norwegian
peace facilitation effort, will be making stops
throughout the island, including Colombo for meetings
with GSL officials and the Wanni region in the north for
meetings with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE). In a first during one of his periodic visits,
Helgesen also visited Sri Lanka's deep south. In
visiting the southern district of Hambantota on October
20, Helgesen called attention to Norway's long-term
interest in development of the south. Before proceeding
to the Wanni region to meet LTTE leader Prabhakaran and
senior negotiator Balasingham (see below), Helgesen also
stopped in Jaffna on October 22.


3. (C) In making the visit, Norwegian Embassy political
officer Tomas Stangeland told us that Helgesen has three
major objectives: (1) To set up an agenda for the
second round of peace talks slated to take place in
Thailand from October 31 - November 3; (2) To make
progress in forming a GSL-LTTE "Joint Task Force" on
humanitarian issues; and (3) To cement plans for a
conference of donors that will be held in Oslo in late
November. Helg

esen also planned to discuss the ongoing
LTTE-Muslim tensions in the east.


4. (C) COMMENT: As reviewed by Stangeland, Helgesen's
agenda is quite an ambitious one, with the Norwegians
having to accomplish a lot in very little time. The
idea of sending Helgesen to southern Sri Lanka was a
solid one and garnered him good press. Amid the
discussion about assisting the war-torn north and east,
many Sinhalese want to make sure that the underdeveloped
south is not forgotten and Helgesen effectively made
that point. (Note: Not everyone was impressed; a group
of demonstrators from the anti-peace process Janantha
Vimukthi Peramuna came out to protest against Helgesen
during the Hambantota stop.) (Note: We have heard that
Helgesen is annoyed that President Kumaratunga could not
meet him because of a "busy schedule.") END COMMENT.

=======================================
Senior Tiger Official Meets his Leaders
=======================================


5. (C) Since arriving in Sri Lanka on October 15 (see
Reftels), the LTTE's London-based senior negotiator
Anton Balasingham has reportedly been engaged in
numerous meetings with his leadership. Tamil contacts
have told us that Balasingham has held long meetings
with LTTE leader Prabhakaran and political chief Thamil
Chelvan about the peace process. (Note: Thamil Chelvan
is reportedly planning to participate in the next round
of talks.) The press has also reported that Balasingham
has met with LTTE "Sea Tiger" commander Soosai and other
military wing officials, including Colonel Banu. There
is no indication whether Balasingham has met with LTTE
leaders from the east, such as Paduman from the
Trincomalee area, and Karuna from the Batticaloa/Ampara
area. Balasingham's wife, Adele, an Australian national
who is a member of the LTTE, has also been engaged in
meetings focused on women's issues.


6. (C) COMMENT. Little is known about the LTTE's inner
dynamics, but Balasingham is considered by most
observers to be more in favor of the peace process than
some others in the group. Apropos of this point, most
of Balasingham's meetings seem to have been held in the
town of Mullaitivu where much of the military leadership
is believed to spend time, as opposed to Kilinochchi,
the nominal headquarters of the LTTE. This may indicate
that he is lobbying military officials, some of whom are
reportedly very concerned about the direction of the
peace process. It would be positive if he also met
members of the eastern leadership, as it is from that
area where many problems arise, especially with Muslims
(see Paras 9-10, for example). END COMMENT.

=====================
Poll re Peace Process
=====================


7. (U) The latest tracking poll by the Center for
Policy Alternatives (CPA), a well-regarded local think-
tank, reported the following key findings:

- Overwhelming public support for the peace process
continues.
- A majority of Sri Lankans continue to approve of
Norway's role as peace facilitator.
- There has been a steady decline in the belief that the
LTTE "goes in for talks to fool the people."
- There has been a steady increase in the number of
people who believe that the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission
(SLMM) is not "effective." Many Sinhalese hold this
view, while Tamils generally do not.
- The vast majority of Tamils say that the LTTE is the
"sole representative" of the Tamil community, an
assertion rejected by most Sinhalese.
- Most Sri Lankans do not believe that the LTTE should
be left in control of an interim administration set up
for the north and east. The majority of Sinhalese and
Muslims are opposed to LTTE control, while most Tamils
are in favor.

(Note: We are faxing the CPA poll results to SA/INS.
Mission will also provide SA/INS the results of a recent
poll it commissioned regarding Sri Lankans attitudes
toward the U.S.)


8. (C) COMMENT: The poll's findings essentially
confirm what we have heard anecdotally, i.e., there is
widespread support for the peace process. It has also
long been said that there is a chasm dividing Tamil and
Sinhalese perceptions, with the latter group somewhat
more skeptical toward the process mainly due to concerns
regarding the LTTE. The poll tends to bear this out.
In any case, the poll indicates there is close to zero
support for a return to war even among the skeptics.
END COMMENT.

===============================
Muslim Meltdown in Akkaraipattu
===============================


9. (C) In this edition of the flavor of the peace
process, Mission turns the spotlight on the town of
Akkaraipattu in the eastern district of Ampara. Of
late, Akkaraipattu has been the epicenter of much of the
anger that many eastern Muslims feel toward the peace
process (see Reftels). (Note: Akkaraipattu has about
35,000 residents of which over 90 percent are Muslim.)
Earlier in the month, for example, fighting broke out
between police and Tamils near the town leaving seven
dead. This incident led to Muslim and Tamil clashes in
the town. In addition, after Muslims were abducted
purportedly by the LTTE, clashes broke out on the
outskirts of the town between Muslims and Tamils last
week, which led the government to impose a curfew for
several days. There has also reportedly been some
Muslim extremist activity in the area, including reports
that A.L.M. Athaullah, an MP from Akkaraipattu, was
involved in stirring things up. (Note: Athaullah has
recently been at odds with the leader of his party, Rauf
Hakeem of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, over the peace
process -- see Reftel.)


10. (C) COMMENT: Clues as to why Akkaraipattu is so
tense are not hard to find. The town is surrounded by
Tamil communities, leaving the pocket of Muslims in
Akkaraipattu feeling isolated and vulnerable. When
Mission team visited the town in June, it met with many
Muslims who were extremely worried that the government's
peace initiative was a "sell out" to the LTTE (see
Reftels). Despite the government's best efforts, every
indication is that this feeling is stronger than ever.
In an October 23 meeting, for example, Chandra Nehru, a
Tamil National Alliance MP from near the town, told us
that the situation in the Akkaraipattu area remained
extremely tense and was even explosive. END COMMENT.


11. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS