C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001975

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10-22-12
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM PINR CE
SUBJECT: Adverse court ruling and coalition stresses
spell trouble for government

Refs: (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 220642Z Oct 02

- (B) Colombo 1968
- (C) Colombo 1942, and previous

(U) Classified by W. Lewis Amselem, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a widely anticipated decision,
Sri Lanka's Supreme Court has shot down the government's
bid to rein in President Kumaratunga's powers. The
government is still developing its reaction to the
adverse ruling. On another front, the GSL continues to
try to squelch a mutiny by a dissident faction of Muslim
MPs led by a controversial politician. Given the
confluence of its recent cohabitation and coalition
problems, the government is clearly taking on some water
in spite of the general popularity of its peace
initiative. END SUMMARY.


====================
Adverse Court Ruling
====================


2. (SBU) In a widely anticipated decision foreshadowed
in Ref C, Sri Lanka's Supreme Court has shot down the
government's bid to rein in President Kumaratunga's
powers. In its (highly technical) decision formally
announced on October 22, the court ruled that the
section of the government's proposed "19th"
constitutional amendment voiding the power of the
president to call an election one-year after the last
election required a national referendum. This was a
sharp surprise to the government, which thought it would
only need two-thirds support in Parliament to pass the
proposed amendment. The court did state that this
section of the proposed amendment could possibly pass
constitutional review if it was redrafted to read that
the president could only call a new election three years
after the last election. If it was redrafted in this
fashion, the amendment could become law if it attained
two-thirds support in Parliament without need of a
referendum, the court stated. As for the proposed
amendment's other key section, the court ruled that the
proposal to allow crossover voting in Parliament was
unconstitutional. (Note: See Ref C for additional

detail regarding the court's decision on the proposed
"19th" amendment.)


3. (SBU) To add insult to injury, the Supreme Court
also ruled against the government's proposed "18th"
constitutional amendment. The court ruled that the
proposed amendment's clauses providing immunity to
members of a constitutional council administering
independent commissions were unconstitutional unless
extensively redrafted. In addition, a referendum was
needed for the proposed amendment's passage into law.
(Note: In the 17th amendment passed last year, the
government agreed to set up independent commissions for
elections, the judiciary, police, and the civil service.
Because of disagreements over immunity and other issues,
the independent commissions are not yet in operation.)

======================
GSL Reaction Not Clear
======================


4. (C) The government is still developing its reaction
to the adverse ruling. In a press conference, G.L.
Peiris, the Minister for Constitutional Affairs,
indicated that the GSL was reluctant to press for a
referendum on the proposed "19th" amendment because the
subject was so narrow and complex that it did not lend
itself well to public debate. Instead, Peiris
indicated, the government was seriously considering
trying to call a parliamentary election, which would
allow the public a clear choice between the PM and the
president. (Note: It is not clear whether the
constitution allows Parliament acting on its own to call
an election or whether it would need the president's
blessing. For her part, the president has made clear
she has no plans to call an election.) Peiris added
that the government was also mulling over whether it
should try to redraft the proposed "19th" amendment to
meet the court's concerns. Discussing the issue with
the Ambassador, Milinda Moragoda, the Minister for
Economic Reform, related that the government had not
made any decisions on what to do and he did not expect
any soon. The PM was still reviewing the issue, he
noted.


5. (C) While the government's next steps are still
being determined, it is clear that it has been sorely
embarrassed by the court's decision. The press has been
full of articles querying how the GSL could have drafted
amendments that were so easily knocked down by the
court. (Note: Although the court is considered pro-
Kumaratunga in its composition, most observers believe
that its decision was reasonably well founded.)
Commenting on the government's predicament, Taranjit
Sandhu, polchief at the Indian High Commission, told us
that the government "really is looking incompetent on
this issue and had better gets its act together
quickly."

=====================
Fire on Another Front
=====================


6. (C) The GSL also continues to try to squelch a
mutiny by a dissident faction of Muslim MPs. As
reported in Ref B, these MPs have basically rebelled
against the leader of their party, Rauf Hakeem of the
Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC). The dissidents, who
number anywhere from three upwards, have demanded that
the government agree to create a council for Muslims in
the east as a condition for any interim negotiated
solution to the conflict with the Tamil Tigers. While
it is not clear, the dissidents seem to be threatening
to bolt from the government's coalition or at least
boycott Parliament until their demands are met. For its
part, the government is working overtime to bring the
dissidents back into the fold. (Note: As related in
Ref B, if the MPs left the coalition, it could have a
serious impact on the governing coalition's slim
majority status. Even with the Muslims out of the
equation, however, the government does not appear to be
any immediate danger of falling because it appears that
it can count on the support of Tamil MPs in any
parliamentary vote of confidence.)


7. (C) The leader of the dissidents is a controversial
figure. A.L.M. Athaullah, 45, is the Minister for
Highways, a non-cabinet position. He is from Ampara
District in the east and was a close associate of M.H.M.
Ashraff, the founder of the SLMC who died in 2000.
According to some observers, Athaullah has a thuggish
reputation and a bent toward Islamic communal thinking.
Moragoda told the Ambassador that Athaullah is using
Islamic extremist rhetoric in an attempt to whip up
anti-peace process opinion in the east. Moragoda, who
encountered Athaullah during a recent visit to the east,
commented that he (Athaullah) seemed to be having some
success using this tack.

=======
COMMENT
=======


8. (C) Given the confluence of its recent cohabitation
and coalition problems, the government is clearly taking
on some water. The court decision, in particular, has
been one of the most serious setbacks it has suffered
since coming to power in December 2001. Despite its
problems, the government still seems to maintain
widespread public support due to the popularity of its
peace initiative. In light of its current problems, the
government might be tempted to try to get out of the box
it is now in by testing its presumed popularity with the
voters via a national election. END COMMENT.


9. (U) Minimize considered.

WILLS