HU JINTAO IN THE MEDIA LIMELIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIJING 001019 E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/12 TAGS: PGOV PINR CH SUBJECT: HU JINTAO IN THE MEDIA LIMELIGHT REF: BEIJING 585 (U) CLASSIFIED BY JON ALOISI, POLITICAL MINISTER- COUNSELOR. REASON: 1.5(B,D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) CHINESE MEDIA ARE GIVING INCREASING PROMINENCE TO HU JINTAO IN A CLEAR SIGNAL TO CHINA'S DOMESTIC AUDIENCE THAT HE HAS CONSOLIDATED HIS POSITION AS CHINA'S NEXT PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY AND STATE PRESIDENT. WE EXPECT HU'S PUBLIC PROFILE TO CONTINUE TO RISE AS CHINA MOVES CLOSER TO THE 2002/2203 LEADERSHIP TRANSITION. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) POLITBURO STANDING COMMITTEE MEMBER AND STATE VICE PRESIDENT HU JINTAO IS WIDELY EXPECTED TO REPLACE JIANG ZEMIN AS PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY (AT THIS FALL'S 16TH PARTY CONGRESS) AND STATE PRESIDENT (DURING THE MARCH 2003 10TH NATIONAL PEOPLE'S CONGRESS). OVER RECENT WEEKS, CHINESE MEDIA HAVE INCREASED THEIR COVERAGE OF HU'S ACTIVITIES. A YEAR AGO, PRESS COVERAGE OF HU, WHO RANKS FIFTH IN THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP, FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON HIS ACTIVITIES AS PRESIDENT OF THE CENTRAL PARTY SCHOOL. TODAY'S COVERAGE IS MUCH MORE LIKELY TO PORTRAY HU IN LEADING ROLES. ¶3. (U) WHILE CHINA'S STATE-RUN MEDIA HAS NOT ALTERED THE FORMAL ORDER DICTATING THAT COVERAGE OF HU COMES AFTER THAT OF JIANG ZEMIN, ZHU RONGJI, LI PENG AND LI RUIHUAN, HU JINTAO'S INCREASINGLY PROMINENT ROLE IS CLEAR IN THE CONTENT AND LENGTH OF HIS COVERAGE. THE AUTHORITATIVE FEBRUARY 4 TV EVENING NEWS BROADCAST, FOR EXAMPLE, BEGAN WITH A SEVEN-MINUTE REPORT ON HU'S SPEECH -- REPRESENTING THE PARTY'S CENTER, THE STATE COUNCIL AND THE CENTRAL MILITARY COMMISSION -- AT A SPRING FESTIVAL RECEPTION FOR HUNDREDS OF RETIRED SENIOR CADRES. ¶4. (U) A REVIEW OF THE OFFICIAL PRINT AND BROADCAST MEDIA OVER THE PAST MONTH CONFIRMS THAT HU'S ACTIVITIES ARE APPEARING MORE FREQUENTLY AND PLACED MORE PROMINENTLY. SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, HU HAS BEEN REPORTED MAKING APPEARANCES AND "IMPORTANT SPEECHES" AT A NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT OCCASIONS. THESE INCLUDE HIS "IMPORTANT SPEECH" JANUARY 11 TO THE NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON PARTY PROPAGANDA CHIEFS (JIANG MADE THE KEYNOTE SPEECH IN 2001) AND HIS JANUARY 21 MEETING WITH PROMINENT AMERICAN VISITORS -- HIS FIRST SUCH ENCOUNTER (REFTEL). ¶5. (U) FURTHER REFLECTING HIS ELEVATED STATUS, HU RECEIVED TOP-RANK BILLING AT THE JANUARY 25 CONFERENCE COMMEMORATING THE SEVENTH ANNIVERSARY OF JIANG'S "EIGHT- POINT PROPOSAL" (WHERE QIAN QICHEN PROPOSED ADJUSTMENTS TO CHINA'S CROSS-STRAIT POLICY). HE ALSO PARTICIPATED - - ALONGSIDE JIANG -- IN A FEBRUARY 2 CENTRAL MILITARY COMMISSION RECEPTION HONORING RETIRED MILITARY CADRES AND WAS "IN CHARGE" AT CEREMONY THAT SAME DAY JOINTLY SPONSORED BY THE PARTY AND THE STATE COUNCIL HONORING OUTSTANDING SCIENTISTS. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) WHILE CHINA HAS MOVED QUITE FAR BEYOND THE DAYS WHEN ANALYSTS POURED OVER PICTURES IN THE PEOPLE'S DAILY TO PUZZLE OUT LEADERSHIP TRENDS, THE REGIME REMAINS SURPRISINGLY RIGID IN ITS MEDIA TREATMENT OF ITS LEADERS. FOR DAILY VIEWERS OF THE CHINESE-LANGUAGE NEWS, HU'S RISE IN STATURE IS A CLEAR INDICATION THAT THE LEADERSHIP TRANSITION IS PROCEEDING ACCORDING TO THE EXPECTED PLAN. RANDT