TURKEY: AK PARTY SEES DENKTAS AS OBSTACLE TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 009051

SIPDIS


CENTCOM AND EUCOM: PLEASE PASS TO POLADS AND J-5


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON TU POLITICAL PARTIES
SUBJECT: TURKEY: AK PARTY SEES DENKTAS AS OBSTACLE TO
CYPRUS SOLUTION


REF: ANKARA 8976


Classified by Acting DCM Scot Marciel. Reason:1.5(b)(d)



1. (C) Summary: The political debate in Ankara regarding
Turkey's EU candidacy and the future of Cyprus is revealing
sharp differences between the ruling AK (Justice and
Development) Party/Government and the Establishmentarian
foreign policy class, including elements that predominate in
the MFA. The fulcrum of the debate is "TRNC President"
Denktas. Hailed by the Establishment as the one and only
representative of Turkish Cyprus, Denktas is seen by AK as a
major liability, complicating efforts to find a solution to
the decades-old Cyprus dispute and threatening Turkey's own
EU bid. While the MFA continues to rally around Dentkas, AK
is subtly trying to undermine him. AK officials support
Turkish and Turkish-Cypriot equities on the island, but
calculate that the voting public is nevertheless increasingly
weary of the stalemate and receptive to the notion that
Establishmentarian intransigence is counterproductive. End
summary.



2. (C) The outcome of the Dec. 12-13 EU summit Copenhagen is
regarded by Turks as a mixed blessing. The EU admitted the
Republic of Cyprus as a member while giving Turkey a
conditional date of Dec. 2004 for the start of formal
accession talks (reftel). While they accept that the summit
generated considerable progress in Turkish-EU relations
(though not as much as Turkey would have liked),the
cognoscenti recognize that the GOT's (and "TRNC President"
Denktas') failure to ink a Cyprus deal in Copenhagen set back
the Turkish cause on the island and in Brussels. This has
prompted the Turks to engage in the time-honored practice of
shifting blame; it also is providing an opportunity for Turks
to question some of the basic assumptions of the GOT's
traditional policy toward Cyprus. The noteworthy aspect of
this reevaluation is that it is being generated primarily,
albeit carefully, by AK in conjunction with some newfound
provisional allies in the press.


-- On Dec. 17, AK Leader Erdogan publicly noted that AK and
the "TRNC" share the same views on Cyprus, but emphasized
that there is "no overlap" at all between the AK position and
the Turkish State's traditionalist approach. Foreign
Minister Yakis later observed publicly that if a solution is
not found on Cyprus, the Turkish military would be regarded
as "an occupying power" on EU territory.


-- Yakis' statements prompted a rebuttal from Deniz Baykal,
leader of the opposition CHP (Republican People's Party) and
political standard-bearer of the Establishment. Baykal
called for Yakis' resignation, asserting that "of the six
billion people on Earth, the Turkish Foreign Minister should
be the last person to say such things. I don't know how we
can correct the damage."


-- In a statement issued Dec. 18, the MFA supported ongoing
negotiations on the Cyprus disupte but decried the admission
of the Republic of Cyprus to the EU, charging that it was
unacceptable legally or politically. A GOT "Foreign Policy
Summit" -- featuring Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, the TGS Chief,
President Sezer, P.M. Gul, FOMIN Yakis, MFA u/s Ziyal, and
Denktas -- endorsed the MFA statement and mutuality of views
between the GOT and the "TRNC."



3. (U) Reaction among opinion makers reflects the divide.
The pro-CHP "Cumhuriyet" endorsed Baykal's call for Yakis'
ouster and underscored the growing distance between AK and
"TRNC President Denktas Others, including "Milliyet's" Sami
Kohen and "Radikal's" Ismet Berkan and Murat Yetkin, leaned
the other way. Kohen described Denktas as an obstacle to a
Cyprus solution, and as a liability to Turkey. "Hurriyet's"
Cuneyt Ulsever on Dec. 18 also drew attention, for virtually
the first time, to the pecuniary interests in Cyprus among
Turkish Cyprus hard-liners, notably former foreign Ministers
Sukru Sina Gurel and Mumtaz Soysal, who is currently a close
Denktas confidant. In the days before Copenhagen, Soysal, a
dyed in-the-wool secularist formerly with CHP, accused
Erdogan of being an "infidel" (gavur) for straying from the
Establishment position on Cyprus.


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AK's View
--------------

4. (C) In private meetings with us, AK officials dispense
with diplomatic niceties regarding Denktas. On Dec. 17, an
AK Parliamentary Group Deputy Chief described to us how
before AK came to power, the idea of publicly questioning
Denktas was akin to the third rail of Turkish politics. "We
are the ones who opened the door to criticism of Denktas,"
not only for his handling of the Cyprus problem per se, but
for helping to generate the economic morass on the island
that has perpetuated poverty among Turkish Cypriots and
Anatolian settlers in the north. On Dec. 18, Erdogan's former
Chef de Cabinet, now an M.P., and several associates asserted
to D/Polcouns that "Denktas is, and always has been, the
biggest obstacle in the way of a solution on Cyprus and has
to go." Picking up on Ulsever's article, the AK officials
asserted that part of what perpetuates the status quo in
Cyprus, and in GOT Cyprus policy, is the personal financial
and other stakes Denktas and many influential mainland Turks
maintain in the "TRNC."


--------------
Comment: "Government" vs. "State" Policy
--------------



5. (C) Undercutting Denktas is a tricky business that runs
the risk of backfiring. Over the decades, the "TRNC" leader
has built up relations with the Turkish Establishment that
have insulated him from public scrutiny here. Moreover,
there appears to be little obvious daylight between the MFA
and the TGS on Cyprus-related issues. Denktas and his allies
have also been able to play the nationalist card effectively
in Turkey, raising the specter of betrayal as a club to keep
critics in line. As Soysal once noted to us, "Istanbul
capitalists might be willing to sell out on Cyprus, but
fortunately Turkish policy is made in Ankara." He was not
referring to Erdogan.



6. (C) The rise of AK, and a broader popular consensus in
favor of EU accession, is beginning to shake some old
assumptions. Reflecting the Soysal approach, the MFA took
the unusual step after the Nov. 3 elections that brought AK
to power of publicly suggesting that governments come and go,
while "State policy" -- on Cyprus and in other areas --
endures and is not subject to change. At a minimum, Turks
are now beginning to appreciate that there are major downside
costs for Turkey to the business-as-usual approach to Cyprus
issue.
PEARSON