ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 008935 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/SE, EUR/PD, NEA/PD, DRL JCS PASS J-5/CDR S. WRIGHT E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR TU SUBJECT: ANKARA MEDIA REACTION REPORT THURSDAY, DECEMBER 12, 2002 THIS REPORT WILL PRESENT A TURKISH PRESS SUMMARY UNDER THREE THEMES: HEADLINES BRIEFING EDITORIAL OPINION -------------- HEADLINES MASS APPEALS Condoleezza Rice to Erdogan: We'll launch an operation against Iraq with or without your support - Vatan Erdogan might go to referandum about a war against Iraq - Milliyet The Last Supper - Hurriyet Turkish Day in Copenhagen - Sabah Erdogan to Denktas: Do not stay away from talks - Hurriyet Democratization package passed by Parliament-Hurriyet OPINION MAKERS Turkey's Longest 48 hours - Radikal Cyprus is the key to accession talks in 2003 - Cumhuriyet Denktas won't be able to attend Copenhagen summit - Zaman Denktas: We cannot sign the UN agreement - Cumhuriyet BRIEFING Iraq: "Milliyet" reports that after his meeting with President Bush, AKP leader Erdogan said that the chance of an operation against Iraq was high, and that the Turkish government may consider a public referendum as part of it's decision-making process. Erdogan drew attention to Turkey's economic losses after the Gulf War, and stressed that a new operation's impact on Turkey would be severe. Erdogan said that in his meetings with US officials, he was offered the `comical' sum of $1-2 billion for Turkey's potential losses in a military operation. EU Summit: All papers give extensive coverage to the EU summit that begins today in Copenhagen. "Hurriyet" reports that the summit will formally begin this evening with a dinner of EU leaders, and questions whether it will be a `christians only' supper like `the last Supper' of Jesus, or whether there will be a muslim at the table! Turkey and the EU will drift apart if Turkey is not given a date for accession talks in the near future. "Turkiye" claims that the summit will be a test for EU sincerity and goodwill. All papers agree that Turkey's goal will be to start the accession talks in 2003, and note that the German and French formula for 2005 is not acceptable. Meanwhile, papers report that the US has intensified its efforts in support of Turkey. President Bush has called several EU leaders, including Danish Prime Minister Rasmussen and French President Chirac, following his meeting with Erdogan. "Radikal" columnist Murat Yetkin cites Secretary Powell's interview with French TV-2, in which Powell urges that an accession date be given to Turkey at the Copenhagen summit'. Cyprus: "Sabah" reports that the outcome of the EU summit depends on TRNC president Denktas. Denktas' refusal of discussions will benefit the Greek Cypriots. Despite many objections by some Greek Cypriots, Clerides has already gone to Copenhagen to sign the UN agreement. Due to medical problems, however, Denktas will be coming to Ankara for treatment. Erdogan reportedly convinced Denktas to send his Foreign Minister to Copenhagen, but Denktas insists that the Minister will attend the summit as an `observer' with no authority to sign the UN plan. "Vatan" reports that the TRNC will negotiate the Annan plan if Turkey is given a date for EU accession. Constitutional Reforms: All papers report that the first harmonization package, which removes some restrictions in the political party and election laws and extends freedoms, was approved yesterday in parliament. However, the second harmonization package, which included articles on re-trial and disciplinary pardons, was postponed to a date after the Copenhagen summit. EDITORIAL OPINION: "The Washington Visit" Cengiz Candar, one of the travelling press with Erdogan, wrote in Islamic-intellectual Yeni Safak (12/12): "The agenda for the Bush-Erdogan meeting was predominantly Iraq. Bush clearly asked Erdogan for Turkey's acceptance of US demands presented earlier by Wolfowitz. The nature of some of these demands is preventing Turkey from giving a quick response, particularly the stationing of around 100,000 US troops in Turkey. . It seems that Erdogan did not make any binding commitments for Turkey during his discussion with President Bush. This is because Erdogan himself finds it difficult to characterize Turkey's possible role and stance. He also finds difficult to say `no' to the US. He appreciates the importance of Turkish-US relations, and values the treatment given him at the White House. . Erdogan cannot pronounce a clear-cut `no' to the US demands, even in a lowered voice. Yet he feels it very hard to explain and justify possible Turkish-American collaboration against Iraq to the Turkish public. Therefore, the current picture presents a deadlock in Erdogan's view. In fact, he hopes to overcome it by taking his time to respond to the US." "US shows the stick, and gives no carrot" Zeynep Gurcanli wrote from Washington in tabloid Star (12/12): "Following the meetings in Washington, Erdogan and his party believe that a war in Iraq is inevitable, and is just a matter of time. . The US message to Erdogan and his party was clear enough: `Iraq's weapons of mass destruction pose a serious threat, and are more of a threat to Turkey than to the US. Thus, we expect Turkey to support us.' . The threat factor, or the `stick' if you will, worked fine. Erdogan seemed convinced about the seriousness of Iraqi threat. However, he was also expecting to see a `carrot' along with the stick. . Erdogan described the huge losses that Turkey suffered during the Gulf War, mentioning the figure of 100 billion dollars. However, the figure given in return by American officials to compensate Turkey's losses in the case of a new war was simply annoying. Erdogan confirmed his disappointment later, saying that `comical amounts' such as 1 or 2 billion dollars had been discussed. . Because of this approach, Erdogan is now trying to establish some new obstacles vis--vis a military operation against Iraq. Now he talks about the need for `convincing the public,' and calls for an Arab coalition to include Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia being drawn into the game." DEUTSCH, ACTING