EU AMBIVALENCE, CYPRUS SEEN AS OBSTACLES TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 008778 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2007 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM TU SUBJECT: EU AMBIVALENCE, CYPRUS SEEN AS OBSTACLES TO TURKEY'S EU CANDIDACY REF: ANKARA 8586 Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch; reasons 1.5 b and d. ¶1. (C) Poloff discussed the state of Turkey's EU candidacy with several Ankara-based European diplomats following a November 26 meeting with Ambassador in which an unusually downbeat PM Gul appeared to believe Turkey had recently lost ground in its EU membership bid. -------------- EU Ambivalence -------------- ¶2. (C) A Danish diplomat suggested that GOT officials may be learning the extent of EU ambivalence about Turkey's candidacy for the first time as a result of ruling AK Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan's tour of EU capitals. He said the highly positive press coverage of the tour was misleading; leaders in countries such as Finland and Portugal had made supportive public comments, but in private had told Erdogan only that they favored setting a date for considering when accession talks for Turkey might begin (a "date for a date") rather than setting a concrete date at the December 12-13 EU Summit. Before Erdogan's visit, many EU members had avoided spelling out their position on Turkey's candidacy, and GOT officials may have assumed they had more support. -------------- Cyprus -------------- ¶3. (C) UK, German, Swedish, Dutch, and Greek diplomats said they did not/not believe Turkey had recently lost support in their capitals. Some suggested GOT frustration could be Cyprus related. Shortly after the November 3 election Erdogan accepted the tacit linkage between progress on Cyprus and EU membership, and made several optimistic statements on Cyprus. More recently, Erdogan has tried to separate the two issues and downplay hopes for a quick Cyprus agreement. The diplomats speculated that leaders of the new GOT now realize how difficult it will be to achieve a pre-Summit breakthrough on Cyprus, and, as a result, may have lowered expectations for the EU Summit. -------------- Reform Package May Come Too Late -------------- ¶4. (C) The diplomats agreed the GOT's new legislative reform package (reftel),not yet introduced in Parliament, appeared to include significant human rights measures. However, they said, the package may come too late to affect EU thinking on Turkey. DPM Yalcinbayir has said the new legislation will not be passed before the Summit. In any case, the diplomats said, EU capitals need time to grasp the significance of legal reform in Turkey. The diplomats recalled that it took most EU member states a couple of months to acknowledge the GOT's August reform package and adjust their views on Turkey's candidacy. PEARSON