TURKEY'S NEW GOVERNMENT: MORE INSIGHTS INTO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 008448

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S NEW GOVERNMENT: MORE INSIGHTS INTO
CABINET FORMATION AND SPEAKERSHIP OF PARLIAMENT

REF: ANKARA 8382


(U) Classified by polcounselor John Kunstadter; reasons: 1.5
(b,d).



1. (U) Summary: President Sezer drew a line by rejecting one
proposed cabinet assignment in the AK government, but allowed
AK to keep the candidate as a State Minister. Fiery orator
Bulent Arinc, who has his own strong following among AK
voters and whom we expect to underscore the prerogatives of
Parliament, has been elected Speaker. End summary.



2. (U) We understand that, in considering AK Party's draft
cabinet list (ref),President Sezer objected to inclusion of
Besir Atalay as Education Minister. He did so owing to
Atalay's having been fired from his rectorship of Kirikkale
University in the wake of the 1997 "February 28" process
("post-modern" coup) through which the Turkish military
organized the downfall of the Islamist Refah-Yol government
of Necmettin Erbakan. The High Education Council (YOK) ruled
that Atalay had hired fundamentalist teachers and given
scholarships to Islamist students; then President Demirel
approved the YOK decision. AK, i.e., P.M.-designate Abdullah
Gul, insisted on keeping Atalay as a State Minister, gave
former leading ANAP figure and AK newcomer Erkan Mumcu (ref
A) the education portfolio, withdrew the name of Vahit Erdem
as candidate DefMin, and gave the defense portfolio to Vecdi
Gonul (ref).



3. (C) As expected, Nov. 19 AK vice chairman Bulent Arinc was
elected Speaker of Parliament on the first ballot over CHP
candidate Onder Sav by 369 to 173 votes. Arinc, who has a
strong following among more militant AK supporters, forced
his way into the position over the plan of party chairman
Erdogan to promote Vecdi Gonul, trusted by President Sezer,
for the position which is second in Turkish state protocolary
order (the Speaker is acting President in President's
absence).



4. (C) Arinc, one of the best orators in Parliament, has thus
carved out an independent spot for himself, since the Speaker
is separate from the cabinet and not answerable to the
President (when the rumors started spreading that Sezer was
angling to have AK nominate Gonul as Speaker, Arinc
emphasized to us that Sezer had no right to meddle in the
selection process). We will watch the Erdogan-Gul-Arinc
dynamics and the Arinc-Sezer dynamics closely. At a minimum
we can expect Arinc to be more willing to assert the
prerogatives of the elected Parliament and defend them in the
face of a limited-power presidency and other elements of the
Kemalist Deep State. Arinc bio in para 5.



5. (C) Bulent Arinc:


--Born in Bursa 1948. Graduated from Ankara U. Law Faculty

1970. Worked as a lawyer in the Aegean region city of
Manisa. From his university days was active in Necmettin
Erbakan's Islamist National Salvation Party (MSP) youth
branch directorate, and served as Manisa province chairman.


--1995 elected on Erbakan's Refah Party ticket from Manisa
and served in the Refah Party directorate. He served on the
parliamentary Judiciary Committee and Turkey-EU Joint
Commission. Elected in 1999 from Manisa on the
Refah-successor Fazilet ticket, Arinc served as a Fazilet
parliamentary group deputy chairman and served on the Foreign
Affairs Committee. Joining the newly-formed AK upon the
closure of Fazilet, he was elected AK's parliamentary group
chairman.


--Married, two children. Reads Arabic; studied some English.
Devoutly religious Muslim who brings a neo-Ottoman
sensibility to politics and to foreign policy considerations.


--Arinc has built up a strong following among Islam-oriented
voters partly through years of crisscrossing Turkey as a
lecturer and symposium participant; through his rhetorical
skills as an incisive debater on TV talk shows; and through
his willingness more than others in the Islam-oriented
movement to call the Turkish military (and Sezer) to task for
meddling in political affairs. He has visited Western Europe
frequently, and has been to the U.S.


--Arinc is a long-time. close contact of the Embassy. Since
the death of his son in an auto accident in the late 1990's
and particularly since the formation of AK in mid-2001, we
have found him to be more attuned to issues of protocol,
given the attention paid to Erdogan and Gul and his own
sensitivity at being considered AK's number three man. At
the same time he has always been an open interlocutor,
particularly in more casual settings, where matters of
protocol do not figure prominently. He enjoys contact with
the Embassy. He is a tough politician, committed to his
Islam-oriented principles, fiery as an orator but measured in
private conversation.
PEARSON