TURKEY: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES EU AND CYPRUS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 008250 SIPDIS CENTCOM AND EUCOM: PLEASE PASS TO POLADS AND J-5 E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2012 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES EU AND CYPRUS WITH SOLANA, NOV. 14 (U) Classified by Ambassador W.R. Pearson. Reason: 1.5(b)(d) ¶1. (C) Ambassador met Nov. 14 with EU Hirep Javier Solana to discuss the EU perspective on UNSYG Annan's plan for a settlement on Cyprus, and the prospects for progress on Turkey's EU bid at Copenhagen in December. Solana noted that he had had separate meetings with MFA U/S Ziyal and AK (Justice and Development) Party leader Erdogan. He told both Ziyal and Erdogan that the best time for a deal on Cyprus is now, and urged them both to get to work hard to "realize their dreams." ¶2. (C) Solana offered that there are several factors at work that could contribute to progress on Cyprus, and thus to Turkey's EU prospects. -- He told both Erdogan and Ziyal that Turkey would be hard pressed to find better, more reasonable people on Cyprus issues than UNSYG Annan and Greek PM Simitis. -- In Solana's view, Ziyal understands the stakes and will push his bureaucracy as hard as he can toward a settlement. Ziyal, he added, is encouraged: 1) by the imminent departure of the lame-duck, hawkish Ecevit caretaker government; 2) that the inertial "TRNC President" Denktas has been largely sidelined due to his health problems; and 3) that AK, with its huge Parliamentary majority, has no fixed view on Cyprus, which provides for some potential flexibility. -- Erdogan also appears committed to moving ahead on Cyprus, though Solana volunteered that he was not sure about "the white haired fellow" advising the AK leader. (Comment: Solana was referring to Yasar Yakis, the conventionally-minded retired MFA careerist who is now AK Vice Chairman for foreign affairs -- that is, barbarian handler/liaison to the Kemalist foreign policy establishment. End comment). Solana opined that caretaker FM Gurel's public criticism of the UNSYG plan could cause some political problems for Erdogan. -- Solana told his Turkish interlocutors that moving ahead on ESDP is not a precondition for a decision by the EU at Copenhagen to announce a date to begin formal accession talks, but that it would send the right signal as to Turkey's willingness to comply with EU requirements. ¶3. (C) Solana emphasized that he did not want to oversell either the prospects for a solution on Cyprus or for Turkey's EU candidacy, noting that the internal EU debate on Turkey would be a contentious one in any event. He thought that a visit by Prodi to Turkey before Copenhagen would be inappropriate, but that perhaps Verheugen could come to Ankara. ¶4. (C) Comment: While Solana's tough message to the Turks contained nothing substantively new, he appeared to come away from his meetings here encouraged that the next GOT will at a minimum be more willing than the Ecevit crew to consider moving ahead on Cyprus. It is not clear, however, that he did a lot of listening. He was mainly in transmit. PEARSON