USINT BAGHDAD CHIEF BERNACKI SAYS IRAQIS ARE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 005490 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2012 TAGS: PREL XF IZ SUBJECT: USINT BAGHDAD CHIEF BERNACKI SAYS IRAQIS ARE GETTING READY Classified By: Ambassador Edward W. Gnehm. Reasons 1.5 (b,d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) USINT Baghdad Chief Krzysztof Bernacki, in meetings with the Ambassador and other Embassy officials on September 23, provided his latest impressions of life in Baghdad. Bernacki, who returned to Baghdad September 6 after a month's leave, said the Iraqi regime, and average Iraqis themselves, are taking steps to prepare for U.S. military action. More security forces have appeared on the streets of the capital and Iraqis have begun stockpiling provisions. Those with the means to do so are making plans to leave the capital when military operations begin. Bernacki noted that Iraq's recent West Asian Football Championship victory provided an opportunity to see (and hear) how widespread private gun ownership is in Baghdad and how undisciplined Iraqi soldiers can be. After Iraq won the championship, the city was ablaze with all variety of gunfire: "I thought the war had started," he said. Finally, he passed on a rumor making the rounds in Baghdad diplomatic circles that after the President's UNGA address, the Saudis offered asylum to Saddam and his family -- an offer Saddam turned down. End Summary. -------------- -------------- Security on the Streets; Preparations to Get Out of Town -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Bernacki said that he had noticed a significant increase of Iraqi security forces -- both uniformed and plainclothed -- on the streets of the capital. While ever present before, "one or two are now stationed on every street corner." Security around government buildings and ministries has also been beefed up somewhat, from an average of four per building to six or eight. He also reported having seen a noticeable increase of individuals he assumes to be intelligence officers positioned on the street and in buildings near the U.S. Interest Section. Those increases notwithstanding, Bernacki said he has not seen any large concentrations of troops moving or otherwise present in the center of Baghdad, nor any visible signs of dissent or anti-regime behavior (graffiti, etc.) anywhere. ¶3. (C) Bernacki said that many people appear to be making use of the double rations the government has been distributing for the past 2-3 months to stockpile provisions. He has also heard rumors that "people are looking for ways to get out of the city when fighting begins. They are building shelters in the countryside." Asked about how he thought most Iraqis would respond to a U.S.-led military action, Bernacki predicted that most would neither fight for the regime or join an uprising. They would stay inside their homes and when it's over "will come out and cheer. People are fearful about what regime change will bring -- whether fighting will be swift or prolonged, about the uncertainty of it all -- but not about regime change itself." -------------- -------------- Has War Begun? No, That's Just A Cheer for the Home Team -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Bernacki passed on a vignette about Iraq's September 7 victory in the West Asian Football Championship that provides a vivid example of the extent of private gun ownership in Baghdad and the level of discipline (or lack thereof) of the Iraqi military. After the Iraqi team won, "the whole city was out firing anything they had. It went on for about an hour an a half." Bernacki said he saw and heard heavy machine gun fire, pistols and other small arms. He even saw anti-aircraft batteries firing wildly into the air: "for a minute, I thought the war had begun! Then I found out it was about the game." Bernacki noted that there is a standing Presidential order forbidding anyone from firing weapons into the air for celebration, an order that was widely ignored the night of the game. Offering his own interpretation of what he had seen and heard, Bernacki observed that "after all they have been through over the years, Iraqis badly want to be on the winning side. They want a success." -------------- Saudi Offer of Asylum? -------------- ¶5. (C) Finally, Bernacki passed on a rumor that has been making the rounds in Baghdad's diplomatic community. According to Russian and Spanish diplomats there, the Saudis -- through an envoy dispatched to Baghdad immediately following the President's UNGA speech -- supposedly offered asylum to Saddam and his family in Saudi Arabia. Saddam, to no one's great surprise, turned the Saudis down. GNEHM