DRAWING A ROADMAP FOR IRAQ PUBLIC DIPLOMACY:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 005238

SIPDIS

NEA FOR LAROCCO, NEA/PPD FOR MACINNES, BOURGEOIS, EUR/ERA
FOR ALLEGRONE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2012
TAGS: KPAO PREL OPRC
SUBJECT: DRAWING A ROADMAP FOR IRAQ PUBLIC DIPLOMACY:
JORDANIAN PERSPECTIVE

REF: A. SECSTATE 169975


B. AMMAN 05196

C. AMMAN 05168

D. AMMAN 05131

E. AMMAN 05173

Classified By: HMAHONEY, PAO, FOR REASON 1.5B

(C) SUMMARY. THE PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ENVIRONMENT IN JORDAN
REGARDING U.S. POLICY TOWARDS IRAQ IS FRAUGHT WITH SUSPICION
AND ANGER ABOUT PERCEIVED U.S. AMBITIONS TOWARDS THE REGION.
JORDANIANS WIDELY BELIEVE THAT U.S. POLICY IN THE REGION IS A
PRODUCT OF ITS STRONGLY PRO-ISRAELI STANCE WITHOUT REGARD FOR
ARAB INTERESTS. JORDANIANS ARE ALSO DEEPLY WORRIED ABOUT THE
IMPACT OF U.S. MILITARY ACTION IN IRAQ (WHICH MOST THINK IS
ALMOST INEVITABLE) ON JORDAN'S POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC
WELL-BEING. JORDAN'S ECONOMIC TIES TO IRAQ ARE CLOSER THAN
THOSE OF ANY OTHER ARAB COUNTRY. LINKAGES OF KINSHIP,
EDUCATION AND CULTURE ARE ALSO STRONG, AND SECOND ONLY TO
THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH THE PALESTINIANS IN THEIR EMOTIONAL
INTENSITY. WE CAN EXPECT THE GOJ TO ATTEMPT TO DAMPEN
POPULAR EMOTIONS, BUT OFFICIAL PUBLIC STATEMENTS ON U.S.
ACTIONS WILL BE CAREFULLY CALIBRATED TO AVOID PROVOKING OR
WORSENING POPULAR EXPRESSIONS OF ANGER AGAINST BOTH THE U.S.
AND THE GOVERNMENT. SHOULD U.S. MILITARY ACTION OCCUR, THE
EMOTIONAL REACTION WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GET OUR MESSAGE
HEARD, ESPECIALLY IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF ENGAGEMENT.
NEVERTHELESS, WE MUST MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO STATE OUR PUBLIC
DIPLOMACY MESSAGE LOUD AND CLEAR AND PURSUE A LONG-RANGE
STRATEGY OF EXCHANGES AND DIALOGUE IN ORDER TO LIMIT THE
DAMAGE TO OUR BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP WITH JORDAN. END SUMMARY


2. THE CLIMATE: A WITCHES' BREW

(SBU) SEVERAL EMOTIONAL AND WIDELY HELD VIEWS OF U.S.
MOTIVATIONS TOWARDS THE ARAB AND ISLAMIC WORLD COMBINE TO
PRODUCE A STRONG REACTION AGAINST OUR EFFORTS TO CHANGE THE
IRAQI REGIME AND ELIMINATE IRAQ'S POTENTIAL TO THREATEN US
WITH WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. IN FACT, JORDANIANS ARE
LARGELY UNCONCERNED ABOUT SADDAM'S ACQUISITION OF WMD. EVEN
IF HE GETS THEM, THEY ARGUE, SO WHAT? OTHER EQUALLY
DANGEROUS COUNTRIES HAVE WMD OR THE CAPACITY TO BUILD THEM,
MOST NOTABLY ISRAEL, BUT ALSO SYRIA, AND NORTH KOREA.
JORDANIANS BEGIN FROM THE ASSUMPTION THAT U.S. PLANS TO
INVADE IRAQ ARE MOTIVATED BY A DESIRE TO PROTECT ISRAEL,
DOMINATE THE OIL-RICH REGION AND ACT OUT FEAR AND THIRST FOR
REVENGE AFTER SEPT. 11. WHATEVER EFFORTS SADDAM MAY HAVE
MADE TO ACQUIRE WMD, JORDANIANS DOUBT THAT IRAQ POSES ANY
REAL DANGER TO THE UNITED STATES, AND BELIEVE THAT THE
DETERRENCE ARGUMENT IS A PRETEXT. THE LOCAL MEDIA ROUTINELY
PORTRAY THE U.S. ACTIONS AFTER SEPT. 11 AS AN EFFORT TO
EXPLOIT A GENUINE HUMAN TRAGEDY AS A PRETEXT TO GO AFTER
ARABS AND MUSLIMS WHO STAND IN OUR WAY. JORDANIAN
COMMENTATORS ON THE U.S. DOMESTIC SCENE WARN OF GROWING
HOSTILITY AND DISCRIMINATION AGAINST ISLAM AND ARABS IN U.S.
SOCIETY: A BETRAYAL OF AMERICAN IDEALS OF FREEDOM AND
EQUALITY.

(C) UNDERLYING THE HOSTILITY AND SUSPICION IS THE CONVICTION,
FREQUENTLY EXPRESSED IN THE PRESS, THAT THE U.S. VIEWS THE
REGION AND THE WAR ON TERRORISM THROUGH THE ISRAELI PRISM,
AND IS INCAPABLE OR UNWILLING TO SYSTEMATICALLY FACTOR IN
ARAB INTERESTS. MANY CONTACTS TELL US THAT THE PALESTINIAN
ISSUE IS BIGGER THAN IRAQ IN THE JORDANIAN MIND, AND THAT THE
PERCEPTION OF U.S. BIAS TOWARDS ISRAEL DETERMINES POPULAR
ATTITUDES TOWARDS AMERICAN ACTIONS VIS A VIS IRAQ. ANY
ISRAELI INVOLVEMENT IN AN ATTACK ON IRAQ WOULD SOLIDIFY THE
BELIEF THAT AMERICAN AND ISRAELI GOALS ARE IDENTICAL. DRAWING
ON STATEMENTS BY ISRAELI JOURNALISTS AND POLITICIANS, SOME
JORDANIANS FEAR THAT THE SHARON GOVERNMENT WILL USE THE COVER
OF U.S. MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ TO CRUSH THE PALESTINIAN
AUTHORITY AND EXPEL LARGE NUMBERS OF PALESTINIANS INTO
JORDAN. A PALESTINIAN INFLUX COMBINED WITH A SIMILAR
MOVEMENT OF REFUGEES FROM IRAQ, THEY FEAR, WOULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL TURMOIL. ADD TO THIS THE
CUT-OFF OF CHEAP IRAQI OIL AND THE COLLAPSE OF THE IRAQI
IMPORT MARKET AND THE NEAR-TERM PICTURE LOOKS BLEAK FOR THE
ORDINARY JORDANIAN CITIZEN.

(C) WE CAN EXPECT THE GOJ TO PURSUE A CAREFULLY CRAFTED
PUBLIC LINE DESIGNED TO DEFLECT POPULAR DISSATISFACTION WITH
GOJ POLICY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE MORE OFFICIAL STATEMENTS
AND EDITORIALS ADVISING JORDANIANS TO CONSIDER THEIR OWN
NATIONAL INTERESTS AHEAD OF THE IRAQI OR PALESTINIAN ISSUES
AND ALLUDING TO THE BENEFITS OF THE U.S.-JORDANIAN OFFICIAL
RELATIONSHIP. BUT GOVERNMENT-OWNED OR DOMINATED MEDIA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY EMOTIONAL STATEMENTS AGAINST
U.S. POLICY. LIKE OTHER ARAB GOVERNMENTS, THE GOJ HAS BEGUN
TO PUT SOME EFFORT INTO TEMPERING THESE INFLAMMATORY
ARGUMENTS (SEE REFS B-D) BUT ITS PUBLIC SUPPORT WILL
NECESSARILY BE LIMITED LEST IT BE PERCEIVED AS AN AMERICAN
CLIENT.


3. PUBLIC AFFAIRS APPROACH:

(U) OUR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY APPROACH SHOULD BE THREE-FOLD: A)
PRESENT LOUD AND CLEAR MESSAGES ON U.S. POLICY AND SWIFTLY
COUNTER DISINFORMATION; B) BE GOOD LISTENERS AND SUSTAIN THE
DIALOGUE C) AFTER THE DUST SETTLES, CONTINUE AND EXPAND THE
INSTITUTIONAL AND EDUCATIONAL TIES, ESPECIALLY WITH YOUTH.

(U) A. MESSAGES TO BE DELIVERED BY SPOKESPERSONS AT THE
HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE WHITE HOUSE, STATE DEPARTMENT, DOD, NSC
AND RELATED AGENCIES:

C)--OUR GOAL IS TO RE-INTEGRATE IRAQ INTO THE GLOBAL
COMMUNITY FOR THE BENEFIT OF ITS PEOPLE. THIS WOULD END
SANCTIONS AND ISOLATION AND REVIVE IRAQ'S GREAT POTENTIAL AS
A FULL PARTNER IN THE REGION. WHILE WE ARE COMMITTED TO
IRAQ'S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY, RELATIVE PROSPERITY AND
STABILITY IN THE FREE KURDISH AREAS SHOW WHAT COULD BE DONE
IF THE WHOLE COUNTRY WERE FREE OF SADDAM'S GRIP. (NOTE:
ENDING THE SANCTIONS IS THE ONLY SILVER LINING WHICH
JORDANIAN COMMENTATORS HAVE SEEN IN A U.S. MILITARY STRIKE
WHICH TOPPLES SADDAM. EVIDENCE THAT IRAQIS WELCOME SADDAM'S
DOWNFALL IF OR WHEN IT HAPPENS WOULD ALSO HAVE A POSITIVE
IMPACT.)

(U)--THE U.S. WILL NOT RELENT IN ITS EFFORTS TO RESOLVE THE
ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT AND TO PURSUE A LASTING AND JUST
TWO-STATE SOLUTION BASED ON UNSCR'S 242, 338, 1397, THE
CONCEPT OF LAND-FOR-PEACE. NOR WILL WE ALLOW ANY PARTY TO
EXPLOIT THE IRAQ SITUATION TO CHANGE FACTS ON THE GROUND.
FOR EXAMPLE, THE U.S. FIRMLY REJECTS EXPULSION OF POPULATIONS
AND WILL NOT ACCEPT IT. ISRAEL IS NOT PART OF OUR MILITARY
COALITION AGAINST SADDAM. (USG SPOKESPERSONS WILL NEED TO
IMMEDIATELY COUNTER ANY STATEMENTS TO THE CONTRARY, E.G. FROM
THE ISRAELI MEDIA.)

(U)--THOUGH WE MAY DISAGREE ABOUT STRATEGY, THE WORLD
COMMUNITY SUPPORTS OUR PREMISE THAT WMD IN SADDAM'S HANDS
POSE A GRAVE THREAT NOT ONLY TO THE U.S. BUT TO THE REGION,
AND MUST BE REMOVED WITHOUT DELAY. THE U.S. IS NOT ACTING
UNILATERALLY. (HERE WE SHOULD EMPHASIZE SUPPORTIVE STATEMENTS
FROM THE U.N.,OTHER UNSC MEMBERS, STRATEGIC STUDIES CENTERS,
THINK TANKS ETC. RELEASE OF DOCUMENTATION OR OTHER "PROOF"
OF IRAQ'S CONTINUING WMD PROGRAMS WOULD ALSO BE HELPFUL.)

(U)--ANY ACTION AGAINST IRAQ IS AIMED AT SADDAM HUSSEIN, NOT
PART OF A DOMINO-STRATEGY TO REMOVE OTHER UNFRIENDLY REGIMES,
E.G. SYRIA AND IRAN.

(U)--SEPT. 11 HAD A PROFOUND IMPACT ON THE AMERICAN PSYCHE,
BUT DID NOT CREATE A CLIMATE OF HATRED AND INTOLERANCE
TOWARDS ARABS OR ISLAM. IN FACT, AMERICAN INTEREST IN ISLAM
AND DESIRE FOR DIALOGUE INCREASED RADICALLY, PROVIDING AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING. AMERICANS ARE
COMMITTED TO EXPANDING THAT DIALOGUE.

(U)--THE U.S. AND OUR ALLIES WILL DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE TO
PREVENT ECONOMIC DISLOCATION TO OUR FRIENDS IN THE REGION.
THROUGH OUR TRADE AND AID APPROACHES WE HAVE A STRONG
PARTNERSHIP TO ENCOURAGE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE ARAB WORLD
WHICH HAS REAPED SIGNIFICANT BENEFITS AND IS ONE OF THE MAIN
HOPES FOR THE FUTURE GENERATIONS.


B. SUSTAINING THE DIALOGUE

(U) IT WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR AMERICA TO BE PERCEIVED AS
LISTENING TO OUR ALLIES IN THE REGION AND SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERING THEIR VIEWS AND INTERESTS EVEN WHEN THE RHETORIC
AND POPULAR EMOTIONS ESCALATE. EMBASSY OFFICERS AND OTHER
USG OFFICIALS VISITING THE REGION SHOULD ENGAGE IN PUBLIC
DIALOGUE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, BOTH THROUGH THE MEDIA AND WITH
UNIVERSITIES, NGO'S AND OTHER PUBLIC FORA. WE ESPECIALLY NEED
ARABIC-SPEAKING SPOKESPERSONS AND OBJECTIVE COMMENTATORS TO
APPEAR ON SATELLITE TV TALK-SHOWS TO COUNTER THE EXTREME
MISCHARACTERIZATIONS OF THE U.S. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
NECESSARY TO COUNTER THE WIDESPREAD IMPRESSION THAT
ARAB-AMERICANS AND MUSLIM AMERICANS LIVE IN FEAR OF REPRISAL
OR OFFICIAL HARASSMENT IN THE U.S. MANY JORDANIANS WHO
STRONGLY DISAGREE WITH OUR POLICIES NEVERTHELESS PIN THEIR
LONG-RANGE HOPES ON POSITIVE RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. BUT
THOSE HOPES WILL DIE IF THEY ARE NOT ABLE TO TALK TO US AND
VENT THEIR EMOTIONS.

(U)WE WILL ALSO NEED RAPID RESPONSES TO COUNTER
DISINFORMATION FROM IRAQIS AND OTHERS. FOR EXAMPLE, WE CAN
EXPECT MASSIVE EXAGGERATIONS OF CIVILIAN CASUALTIES AND
DISINFORMATION ABOUT ISRAELI INVOLVEMENT. WE WILL NEED THE
FACTS VIA USG OFFICIAL RESPONSES ASAP. THE LONDON INFORMATION
CENTER IS AN EXCELLENT MEANS OF PROVIDING THIS INFORMATION
AND SO ARE OUR INFORMATION RESOURCE CENTERS AT THE POSTS.

(U) TO COUNTER THE MISPERCEPTION THAT AMERICANS HATE ISLAM
AND ARABS, WE WILL NEED ARAB-AMERICAN AND MUSLIM-AMERICAN
SPEAKERS AND OTHERS WHO CAN FORGE LINKAGES BETWEEN THEIR
ORGANIZATIONS AND COMMUNITIES AND JORDANIANS. FOR EXAMPLE,
WE ARE SENDING TO THE U.S. A GROUP OF INTERNATIONAL VISITORS
FROM SHARIA' SCHOOLS AND OTHER ISLAMIC INSTITUTIONS. THEY
WILL MEET WITH U.S. INSTITUTIONS SUCH AS THE GEORGETOWN
CENTER FOR MUSLIM-CHRISTIAN UNDERSTANDING. SEVERAL JORDANIAN
NGO'S HAVE EXPRESSED STRONG INTEREST IN SPEAKER EXCHANGE
PROGRAMS THAT WOULD GIVE THEM AN OPPORTUNITY TO SPEAK
DIRECTLY TO AMERICAN AUDIENCES. MANY JORDANIANS ARE EAGER TO
PRESENT THEIR RELIGION AND SOCIETY TO AMERICAN AUDIENCES AND
WE SHOULD SUPPORT THIS TWO-WAY EXCHANGE WHEREVER POSSIBLE
BOTH THROUGH USG EXCHANGE PROGRAMS AND FUNDING FOR NGO'S.




C. EDUCATIONAL AND OTHER EXCHANGE LINKAGES

(U) OUR EXCHANGE AND EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS WILL NO DOUBT
SUFFER AT LEAST TEMPORARILY FROM ANY MILITARY ACTION IN IRAQ.
WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME CONTACTS DECLINING SPEAKER AND
OTHER PROGRAMS AS A RESULT OF THEIR OBJECTIONS TO U.S. POLICY
TOWARDS THE PALESTINIANS AND IRAQ. NEVERTHELESS WE BELIEVE
THAT OPPORTUNITIES FOR EDUCATIONAL AND OTHER EXCHANGES WILL
ENDURE AS JORDANIANS REFLECT ON THEIR LONG-RUN INTERESTS. WE
SHOULD BE IN A POSITION TO OFFER A SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
LEVEL OF EDUCATIONAL AND CITIZEN EXCHANGES, ENGLISH
INSTRUCTION, AND COOPERATION IN THE FIELDS OF CIVIC EDUCATION
AND CIVIL SOCIETY AND OTHER AREAS WITH A SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON
REACHING YOUTH. AND WE SHOULD NOT FORGET THE IMPACT OF
CULTURAL PROGRAMMING IN THE FIELDS OF FILM, DRAMA, MUSIC,
DANCE LITERATURE AND THE ARTS. THE LATTER AREA REMAINS
ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT AS THE GOVERNMENT CRACKS DOWN ON
POLITICAL DISCUSSION LEAVING THE ARTS AS ONE OF THE ONLY
VEHICLES OF FREE EXPRESSION.
BERRY