APPREHENSION AND RESIGNATION: A SENIOR JORDANIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 005131 SIPDIS WHITE HOUSE FOR TUCKER ASKEW E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ JO SUBJECT: APPREHENSION AND RESIGNATION: A SENIOR JORDANIAN ON THE U.S. AND IRAQ REF: A. STATE 169304 ¶B. AMMAN 4719 Classified By: CDA Gregory L. Berry for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) In an off the record session of the Amman World Affairs Council attended by A/DCM on September 2, Royal Court Chief Fayez Tarawneh gave the mostly East Bank audience one of the most frank assessments of GOJ thinking on Iraq that we have heard. After being peppered by leading questions on the strength of Jordanian support for Palestinians and opposition to military action on Iraq, Tarawneh responded forcefully with the GOJ's emerging "Jordan first" public line. "I hear about the Palestinian question; I hear about the Iraqi question; but I never hear about the Jordanian question. What about our interests? Can we not be concerned about what is best for Jordan?" ¶2. (C) When asked if Jordan could influence a U.S. decision to attack Iraq, Tarawneh said "of course we can influence the U.S. We are telling them (the Americans) about the great economic and political impact that any attack on Iraq will have on us here and about the great risk to stability in the region. However, the U.S. will make its final decision based on its own interests, not on ours. We are only one small voice." When the questioner pressed Tarawneh on whether the GOJ had objected strongly enough to a U.S. strike, Tarawneh shot back "If the U.S. decides to attack Baghdad, what are we supposed to do? Put up our F-16s so they can be shot down? Should we commit suicide?" ¶3. (C) When asked how Jordan calculates its interests in the region, Tarawneh responded with a barrage of regional and international trade data, ending by saying that combined U.S. assistance to Jordan and Jordanian exports to the U.S. may approach USD 1 billion this year. "Like it or not," Tarawneh concluded, "the U.S. is now economically more important for us than Iraq. We cannot ignore this fact. Do other elements go into our calculation? Of course they do. But American trade and assistance help the lives of Jordanians and provide them jobs." ¶4. (C) COMMENT: Tarawneh's comments in this semi-public forum show clearly the dilemma facing GOJ officials: they fear the consequences of any U.S. military action in Iraq, but they do not want (and cannot afford) to jeopardize Jordan's very close relations with the U.S. The "Jordan First" mantra is also a way to prepare the Jordanian public for the nuances of the government's policy on Iraq in coming months, building on the King's address to the nation August 15 (ref b). As government officials frequently say in private, "This is not 1990." BERRY