APPREHENSION AND RESIGNATION: A SENIOR JORDANIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 005131

SIPDIS

WHITE HOUSE FOR TUCKER ASKEW

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ JO
SUBJECT: APPREHENSION AND RESIGNATION: A SENIOR JORDANIAN
ON THE U.S. AND IRAQ

REF: A. STATE 169304

B. AMMAN 4719

Classified By: CDA Gregory L. Berry for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D)


1. (C) In an off the record session of the Amman World
Affairs Council attended by A/DCM on September 2, Royal Court
Chief Fayez Tarawneh gave the mostly East Bank audience one
of the most frank assessments of GOJ thinking on Iraq that we
have heard. After being peppered by leading questions on the
strength of Jordanian support for Palestinians and opposition
to military action on Iraq, Tarawneh responded forcefully
with the GOJ's emerging "Jordan first" public line. "I hear
about the Palestinian question; I hear about the Iraqi
question; but I never hear about the Jordanian question.
What about our interests? Can we not be concerned about what
is best for Jordan?"


2. (C) When asked if Jordan could influence a U.S. decision
to attack Iraq, Tarawneh said "of course we can influence the
U.S. We are telling them (the Americans) about the great
economic and political impact that any attack on Iraq will
have on us here and about the great risk to stability in the
region. However, the U.S. will make its final decision based
on its own interests, not on ours. We are only one small
voice." When the questioner pressed Tarawneh on whether the
GOJ had objected strongly enough to a U.S. strike, Tarawneh
shot back "If the U.S. decides to attack Baghdad, what are we
supposed to do? Put up our F-16s so they can be shot down?
Should we commit suicide?"


3. (C) When asked how Jordan calculates its interests in
the region, Tarawneh responded with a barrage of regional and
international trade data, ending by saying that combined U.S.
assistance to Jordan and Jordanian exports to the U.S. may
approach USD 1 billion this year. "Like it or not," Tarawneh
concluded, "the U.S. is now economically more important for
us than Iraq. We cannot ignore this fact. Do other elements
go into our calculation? Of course they do. But American
trade and assistance help the lives of Jordanians and provide
them jobs."


4. (C) COMMENT: Tarawneh's comments in this semi-public
forum show clearly the dilemma facing GOJ officials: they
fear the consequences of any U.S. military action in Iraq,
but they do not want (and cannot afford) to jeopardize
Jordan's very close relations with the U.S. The "Jordan
First" mantra is also a way to prepare the Jordanian public
for the nuances of the government's policy on Iraq in coming
months, building on the King's address to the nation August
15 (ref b). As government officials frequently say in
private, "This is not 1990."
BERRY