PUBLIC'S UNEASINESS ABOUT DIRECTION OF

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004506 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ IS JO SUBJECT: PUBLIC'S UNEASINESS ABOUT DIRECTION OF U.S.-JORDANIAN RELATIONSHIP REF: SECSTATE 139546 Classified By: DCM Gregory L. Berry for Reasons 1.5 (B) and (D) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (S) Despite healthy bilateral economic, trade, political, and military ties, confusion and uncertainty about recent developments on both bilateral and regional issues have made many Jordanians uneasy about the direction of the US-Jordan relationship. The press has pulled together a number of issues -- delays in visa issuance to students, public discussion of the MARLO notice of possible MIF searches in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aqaba, press speculation about U.S. intentions toward Iraq -- as signs of U.S. unhappiness with Jordan. The general edginess of the Jordanian public is likely to be a continuing factor in the government's calculations on policy pronouncements across the board. End Summary. -------------- AREN'T YOU OUR FRIENDS ANYMORE? -------------- ¶2. (S) Several recent events -- U.S. press stories alleging that the US is basing troops in Jordan for an offensive against Iraq, the controversy over the participation of Prince Hassan in a meeting of exiled Iraqi officers in London, the public discussion of the month-old announcement of possible MIF inspections of ships in the Red Sea, and lengthened processing time for visas (see reftel) -- have caught the attention of Jordanians both in and out of government. The confluence of these events over the past month has caused some Jordanians to wonder about the direction of Jordan's relationship with the U.S. Ongoing violence in Israel and the West Bank/Gaza and rising regional tension because of speculation about a U.S. military strike on Iraq are compounding this uneasiness about the U.S.-Jordanian relationship. -------------- IRAQ: THE GOVERNMENT AND THE PUBLIC -------------- ¶3. (S) In Jordan, the GOJ has been on the defensive for the last month vis-a-vis its position on Iraq. Jordanian officials first scrambled to confront U.S. press stories outlining Jordan's alleged role in a U.S. offensive against Iraq. The government's overreaction -- a too-strong denial of the presence of U.S. forces in the Kingdom -- and the King's ill-considered public statements in London succeeded only in convincing many Jordanians (and especially the press) that the U.S. media reports of Jordan as a "launching pad" for an attack must be true. Former Crown Prince Hassan's highly visible role at a meeting of exiled Iraqi military officers in London further fueled speculation that Jordan was somehow angling for a Hashemite role after regime change in Iraq. ¶4. (C) In this context, MARLO's announcement of the possibility of resumed MIF inspections of ships leaving Aqaba was given great belated play in the press. At a time when senior GOJ officials -- including the King -- were trying to calm a suspicious public about Jordanian policy on Iraq, the MIF announcement was widely interpreted as an expression of U.S. unhappiness with Jordan or pressure on the GOJ. -------------- VISAS -------------- ¶5. (C) Jordanians, particularly those getting ready to send their children to the U.S. for education or medical treatment, have been surprised and deeply worried by the long waits for visas. The lengthened processing time due to the Visas Condor program -- and particularly the Consular Section's inability to tell visa applicants when/whether they will be permitted to travel -- resulted in several rumors claiming that the U.S. had stopped issuing visas to Jordanians altogether. Senior GOJ officials have been swamped with requests to intervene with the Embassy to speed up visa issuance. A senior MFA contact complained to us this week that the visa issue alone had so distracted GOJ officials that many took it as a sign of U.S. unhappiness with Jordan. Our argument that security concerns are paramount meets with considerable sympathy in the abstract, but the more sophisticated of our contacts insist that an American-educated political elite is a key investment in the future. The less sophisticated simply put in a plea for children, nieces, nephews, or cousins. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (S) Many of our interlocutors seem to have given in to the worry that recent events represent a negative shift in U.S. attitudes towards Jordan -- objective evidence of the strength of relations notwithstanding. In a tense region with no relief in sight, anxiety among the public is probably inevitable, but is nonetheless a problem for officials mapping out responsible policies on the MEPP and Iraq while looking over their shoulders at a dissatisfied and uneasy public. Gnehm