IRAQI, TURKISH FONMINS VISIT AMMAN: FOCUS ON

S E C R E T AMMAN 004443 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2022 TAGS: PREL IZ TU JO SUBJECT: IRAQI, TURKISH FONMINS VISIT AMMAN: FOCUS ON IRAQ, BUT NO MOVEMENT Classified By: Amb. Edward W. Gnehm for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D) -------------- IRAQI FONMIN IN AMMAN... -------------- ¶1. (S) Iraqi FonMin Naji Sabri visited Amman August 6 and met with King Abdullah, PM Ali Abul Ragheb, and FonMin Marwan Muasher. In an August 8 conversation with the Ambassador, Muasher said that Sabri was clearly concerned about what King Abdullah had discussed regarding Iraq during the King's trip to the U.S. last week -- although Sabri did not ask about the King's discussions directly. According to Muasher, the King told Sabri that he was frustrated with Iraqi regime policy: even though he has tried to give good advice to Iraq, the regime never listens. Muasher said that when the King told Sabri that Iraq should immediately implement all applicable UNSCRs, "we did not get any positive reaction." Sabri repeated his public line that Iraq is prepared to cooperate with UN weapons inspectors, but only as part of an overall deal involving the lifting of sanctions. The King, Muasher claimed, told Sabri that Iraq "can't dictate the conditions -- don't you realize that?" ¶2. (S) According to Muasher, Sabri also expressed concern over former Jordanian Crown Prince Hassan's appearance at a July conference of Iraqi oppositionists in London. The King reportedly told Sabri that he had not approved Hassan's appearance and, in fact, had known nothing about it beforehand. -------------- ...AND THE TURK AS WELL -------------- ¶3. (S) Turkish FonMin Sukru Sina Gurel also visited Amman August 6 and met with King Abdullah, PM Abul Ragheb and FonMin Muasher, as well as Iraqi FonMin Sabri. Muasher told the Ambassador that Gurel had wanted to discuss Jordan's position on Iraq, but had provided little insight into Turkish thinking. However, Muasher commented, Gurel left the impression -- but did not state explicitly -- that, in the end, Turkey will "provide support" to possible U.S. military action against Iraq. ¶4. (C) Turkish Charge Sadi Altinok (protect) claimed to the DCM August 7 that FM Gurel was unaware that Iraqi FM Sabri was in Amman until FM Muasher mentioned it in passing during his meeting. After the meeting with Muasher, Gurel decided on his own to ask Sabri to meet. According to the Turkish charge, Gurel urged Iraq to comply with UNSCRs, and Sabri restated the Iraqi position. ¶5. (C) According to Altinok, PM Abul Ragheb and Gurel in their meeting had discussed scenarios for the "day after" a possible military action against Iraq. Both agreed the Iraqi regime is bad for everybody, but worried that Iraq would break apart in the wake of a war. Abul Ragheb told Gurel that removing the Ba'ath party would leave Iraq without any political glue, perhaps leading to disintegration of authority and civil war. -------------- KING ABDULLAH SHIES AWAY FROM TURKISH PRESS -------------- ¶6. (C) In an interesting side note, Altinok said that King Abdullah had turned down a request to appear on Turkish state television. The palace said the King had been on TV quite a lot lately and was cutting back on his exposure. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (S) Sabri seems to have come to Amman both to check on what King Abdullah did in Washington and to remind the Jordanians that Iraq is watching Jordanian actions. As usual, the Jordanian-Iraqi exchange seems to have produced little movement in any direction. Gnehm