AL-NAKHBA DAY PASSES QUIETLY IN JORDAN -- WAITING

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 002447

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2012
TAGS: PGOV KPAL ASEC JO
SUBJECT: AL-NAKHBA DAY PASSES QUIETLY IN JORDAN -- WAITING
FOR A POLITICAL PROCESS?


Classified By: PolCouns Doug Silliman for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Traditionally a day of protests in Jordan, the May
15 remembrance of al-Nakhba (the "Catastrophe" -- the 1948
founding of ISRAEL) passed quietly in Jordan this year. The
Professional Associations sponsored a pro-Palestinian rally
in the Shmeisani neighborhood of Amman. A large number of
police watched over the peaceful rally, but did not
interfere. UNRWA sources indicate that Jordan's refugee
camps were quiet, with the exception of the Baqaa camp north
of Amman, where a "spontaneous demonstration" tried
unsuccessfully to reach the main Amman-Irbid highway.


2. (C) In a May 15 meeting, GOJ Department of Palestinian
Affairs Director General Abdulkarim Abulhaija had told
refcoord he expected Nakhba day to pass quietly in Jordan.
The GOJ was not aware of any large demonstrations planned in
the camps. In general, Abulhaija said, "this is a moment of
calm in Jordan," as everyone is waiting, hopefully, for a
political process to restart and take root. Abulhaija, who
had just completed several days of meetings with camp
leadership throughout the Amman area, said refugees are even
talking about the need to avoid violence -- particularly in
the West Bank -- to ensure that a political dialogue can
begin and be successful. Noting that refugees just a few
weeks ago had been highly critical of the U.S., Abulhaija
said they are now talking about the "independence" of the
U.S. Administration and its apparent willingness to "stand
up" to pro-ISRAELi interests. Abulhaija added that the U.S.
now needed to deliver. If political progress is not made in
the next few weeks, or if ISRAEL launches significant new
military assaults, he believes the mood could rapidly turn in
the camps and in the broader Arab street.


3. (C) In contrast, however, UNRWA staff told RefFSN that a
group of refugees in Baqaa camp said this week that they
blamed the United States for ISRAEL's occupation of the West
Bank and Gaza and were upset to learn that a U.S. delegation
had recently visited the camp.

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COMMENT
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4. (C) This year's Nakhba Day passed with barely a whimper,
especially as compared to the clashes that took place last
year on May 11 in the run-up to al-Nakhba. In the wake of
ISRAEL's withdrawal from West Bank cities and with the daily
dose of images of Palestinian suffering reduced, Jordanians
seem to be waiting to see if U.S. and international
statements about the need for a political process and
creation of a Palestinian state will be acted on.
Gnehm