NIGERIA: PARTIAL UPDATE ON INEC PREPARATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 003374 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/12 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PREL NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PARTIAL UPDATE ON INEC PREPARATIONS CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE ANDREWS. REASONS 1.5 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) Summary. Under growing scrutiny from domestic political parties and the international donor community and sensing that the sand is emptying from the electoral hourglass, the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) is attempting to show mastery of its brief. On December 18, INEC released a skeletal electoral timetable while also holding several meetings with political parties during the week of December 16-20. Despite this display of greater activity, INEC did not win many converts. Most of the new political parties lambasted the new schedule as unrealistic. INEC's tardy completion of the voters list and its announcement of a supplemental registration in January were derided by several parties; they threatened a lawsuit seeking a completely new registration based on allegations of massive fraud. In the meantime, having not yet received its 27 billion Naira allocation, INEC continued to dawdle in making the essential logistical preparations for the elections. End summary. -------------- VOTERS REGISTRATION -------------- ¶2. (C) During a December 19 press statement, INEC Spokesman Okpo S. Okpo announced that 12-15 percent of the voter registration applications submitted during the September registration exercise were improper, mostly multiple applications. Okpo's revelation undermines prior statements by INEC Chairman Guobadia that the registration was relatively hitch-free and that all eligible Nigerians were able to register. Okpo's statement was based on a partial review of all the applications submitted. If this estimate holds true for the entire exercise, Okpo's statement is an implicit admission that as many as 10 million fraudulent applications might have been submitted. If so, a significant number of eligible voters could have been precluded from registering due to lack of registration forms caused by the high number of fraudulent applications. ¶3. (C) The newly registered political parties were not appeased by Okpo's newly found candor. They complained INEC's "admission" was a clever subterfuge to trick people into believing that INEC was honest while an even more monumental fraud was underway. Leader of the Green Party, Olisa Agbakoba, told us that the Coalition of Nigerian Political Parties would probably file a lawsuit seeking an entirely new registration exercise. The CNPP, comprised of twelve opposition parties, would meet within the next few days to decide whether to file suit. The hesitance was not with the suit's propriety but over its potential effect on the electoral schedule, he stated. ¶4. (C) Agbakoba, founder of the Nigeria's best-known human rights group, the Civil Liberties Organization, averred the Coalition possessed hard evidence that millions of voter cards had been hoarded by the GON and PDP. They warehoused the cards, promising to give a set number of cards to each PDP nominee at the local, state and national levels to sway general elections in their favor. Knowledge of this improper fringe benefit was another reason the PDP primaries were being so hotly contested, asserted Agbakoba. (Comment: Agbakoba's offered no corroborating evidence and currently we cannot gauge the credibility of his allegation. On its face, such a massive fraud seems unlikely because the chances of disclosure are too high; however, Agbakoba is usually a fairly careful interlocutor. At the very least, If he believes this charge, we can be sure that other opposition politicians do as well. Comment. ¶5. (C) The suit would simply add to INEC's registration woes. Due to INEC's lethargic bureaucracy and unforeseen glitches, the Commission is weeks behind schedule in finalizing the voters list. Originally set for release this month, the list will take "quite a few weeks" in the words of the UN election expert who works with the Commission. Assuming everything runs smoothly, she said, "January 15 is the earliest possible date" for releasing the list. Cook believed that early to mid-February is more likely and we concur. ¶6. (C) While not assuaging the new political parties, INEC's plans to hold a "mop up" registration in January could improve the quality of the registration exercise and incrementally increase voter confidence in INEC. INEC's initial plan was to conduct the supplementary registration process only from local government headquarters -- 774 locations instead of the 120,000 sites used in September. Amenable to pressure from the political parties, INEC ultimately decided to conduct the supplemental registration at the over 8000 ward headquarters nationwide. The parties had complained that local government headquarters were too few and too far between to be accessible for many Nigerians during the brief, supplemental registration. Uncertainly still surrounds this endeavor; although INEC plans this abbreviated exercise next month, it still has not received the extra funding to conduct it. ¶7. (C) INEC has not explicitly stated whether the supplemental registration could affect its electoral timetable (para 8). The current electoral law mandates a minimum of 60 days between the publication of the voters rolls and the conduct of any election. With all state and federal elections now slated for consecutive weeks in April, publication of the registration list, including the supplemental lists, must occur in February. Local government elections, which are run by state electoral commissions (SIECs) not INEC, are also governed by the 60- day proviso. (SIECs cannot hold elections until given updated lists by INEC, however.) This schedule is tight and cannot accommodate much delay. Recognizing this, INEC has suggested that it will seek to add more flexibility to the timetable by asking the National Assembly to amend the electoral law by shortening the 60-day waiting period. ELECTORAL TIMETABLE ¶8. (U) On December 20, INEC published the long-awaited electoral timetable. Below are the major aspects of the schedule: -- Collection of Forms from INEC by the Parties (December 20 - January 4): (a) Forms listing candidate's and personal particulars; (b) Nomination forms December 23, 2002 - January 2003 -- Submission of Lists of candidates by political parties January 5-11, 2003; -- Publication of personal particulars of candidates January 22, 2003; -- Return of nomination forms by political parties January 16-22, 2003; -- Publication of list of nominated candidates January 11- 18, 2003; -- Substitution of candidates February 25-March 4, 2003; and -- Publication of notice of poll March 20, 2003 ELECTIONS - National Assembly April 12, 2003 - Presidential/Gubernatorial April 19, 2003 - Possible run-off April 26, 2003 - Possible second run-off April 29, 2003 - State House of Assembly May 3, 2003 ¶9. (SBU) The new political parties railed that the December and January deadlines for selecting candidates and presenting INEC with information about the candidates placed unrealistic time constraints on the parties. Predictably, the parties claimed that INEC was slave to a script favoring the PDP. However, INEC did respond when the parties criticized the initial electoral schedule INEC proposed. That INEC proposal led with the presidential elections. INEC shifted the presidential contest toward the end of the elections sequence after the smaller opposition parties protested. They cried that the bandwagon effect from the presidential elections would influence the subsequent contests and compel voters toward the winning party. -------------- ELECTION OBSERVERS -------------- ¶10. (C) Based on her recent conversations with Guobadia, UN elections expert Margaret Cook told us that the MFA would issue invitations to potential foreign observers. The invitations are expected to go to foreign missions, international organizations and private organizations. No list has been developed, though, and she advised that any interested party not in receipt of the invitation should contact either INEC or the MFA. She said that she believed the list would be "fairly comprehensive" with regards to foreign missions and should include major international organizations such as the UN, EU and AU. INEC had informed us that invitations would be sent by last week. However, they were not, and INEC has not provided a new date. ¶11. (C) Comment: Today's INEC is much less sanguine about elections monitors than the 1999 INEC. The announcement that observers will be invited but the delay in sending the invitations could well be a conscious passive-aggressive tack. INEC and the GON may be stalling the invitations for as long as possible in order to discourage and minimize the number of observers. Not many organizations have the capacity to quickly field observer teams if invitations are received too late in the electoral cycle. End Comment. -------------- FOR THE LACK OF MONEY -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Lack of funding continues to be a stumbling block. Despite approval of INEC's 27 billion Naira allocation (USD 200 million),INEC has not received the actual funding to date. INEC states that it cannot begin to order crucial material such as ballot paper and ballot boxes until it actually receives the funds. Moreover, it appears that INEC has not even made much headway in determining the design of the paper, a task that has been complicated by the advent of so many new parties. -------------- MEANWHILE... -------------- ¶13. (U) The major parties are moving forward with their nominating processes, putting both INEC and the smaller parties under pressure. However, unresolved rifts within the ANPP (the rump APP continues to protest) and protests against results in certain gubernatorial and senatorial primaries provide fuel for injunction requests and other legal challenges, as well as a risk of renewed electoral violence. ANDREWS