NIGERIA: VICE PRESIDENT ATIKU MULLS A PROMOTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 002892

SIPDIS


LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: VICE PRESIDENT ATIKU MULLS A PROMOTION


REF: ABUJA 2862


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASONS 1.5 (B) and
(D).



1. (C) Summary: Vice President Atiku Abubakar wants to be
Nigeria's next President; however, he no longer wants to wait
for 2007. Competing ambitions and mutual mistrust have
placed Atiku and Obasanjo on a collision course. Atiku thinks
he can snatch the PDP Presidential nomination from an
unpopular, weakened Obasanjo. However, an open challenge to
Obasanjo would be untidy, cause convulsions within the PDP,
and increase the sense of political uncertainty throughout
Nigeria. As Atiku inches closer to his decision on
challenging Obasanjo, he also must gauge how many of his
ostensible supporters pushing him are genuine or whether
their efforts are designed to turn Obasanjo and Atiku into
enemies. Instinctually, Atiku may be a better politician than
Obasanjo, but Atiku is also more representative of Nigeria's
traditional monetized politics than the reformist, too often
coarse Obasanjo. Atiku does advocate privatization and other
economic reforms, yet he also is closely associated with
"business as usual" and allegedly a party to corruption.
Reftel reported Atiku's account of current events and his
role in them. Much of what Atiku stated is true, but we do
not believe that he is nearly as passive, or as blameless, as
he claims. This cable provides Embassy's assessment of
Atiku's role in the conundrum that is Nigerian politics
today. End summary.



2. (C) Vice President Atiku occupies a position most
ambitious politicians find uncomfortable. The safest bet and
the most statesmanlike thing would be to stand pat as the
number two on Obasanjo's ticket. However, given Atiku's
ambition and his withering relationship with the President,
Atiku would chafe at four more years under Obasanjo. Seeking
the top office has a compelling attraction; it is equally
foreboding. Should he maneuver wisely, Atiku will ascend the
greasy political pole to become Nigeria's Chief Magistrate.
Should he make the wrong move, political oblivion would
likely be next. Moreover, history may indict Atiku for
letting personal ambition blind him to the imperatives of
national political stability.


--------------
HOW IT STARTED
--------------



3. (C) Despite his claim that Obasanjo drafted him (reftel),
most accounts indicate Atiku was not Obasanjo's first choice
as running-mate. Obasanjo initially discounted Atiku as a
customs officer with blots on his reputation. However, the
PDP's strength was built on two main foundations: One was the
clout of former Head of State Ibrahim Babangida and other
retired generals; the other was the PDM, the "progressive"
grassroots political network established by the late General
Shehu Yar'Adua. While the generals' support was essential
getting Obasanjo's candidacy started and securing the PDP
nomination, Obasanjo would need PDM members as his campaign
foot soldiers to win the general election. Atiku had
inherited the leadership of the PDM from Yar'Adua. Atiku
became Obasanjo's running-mate because of this political
reality.



4. (C) The two men meshed during the first two and a half
years of the Administration. As Vice President Atiku
shepherded the economic portfolio, presiding over the
Administration's ambitious privatization initiative. Atiku
had wide latitude in appointing heads of parastatals and
party officials as well. The VP maintained control of the
PDM faction within the party, albeit the PDM had weakened
since the election in 1999. He compensated by extending his
influence throughout the party, particularly in the National
Secretariat and among PDP National Assembly Members. Atiku

SIPDIS
quietly positioned himself as perhaps the single most
influential person in the PDP machinery, eclipsing even
Obasanjo.


--------------
ELECTORAL JOCKEYING MUDDIES THE WATER
--------------



5. (C) By the end of 2001, electoral pressures began to mire
the relationship with Obasanjo. Works and Housing Minister
Tony Anenih and NSA Aliyu Mohammed helped drive the wedge
between Obasanjo and Atiku. Wanting to be the main PDP
apparatchik, Anenih saw Atiku as a rival. This rivalry was
compounded by Anenih's desire also to control the PDM, where
heretofore he was a important but lesser player than Atiku.
Anenih began canvassing Northern Governors -- particularly
Kaduna's Makarfi and Bauchi's Mu'azu -- to possibly replace
Atiku as Obasanjo's second. Anenih did not hide his
machinations, hoping Atiku would find out. Atiku did.

6. (C) NSA Mohammed's reason for poisoning the
Obasanjo-Atiku relationship were less apparent but may have
been the child of Mohammed's own inchoate electoral ambitions
or Aliyu may have been working at the behest of Babangida. At
the beginning of the year, Babangida reportedly (and
repeatedly) delivered messages to the President that his
support was contingent on Obasanjo jettisoning Atiku.
Babangida saw Atiku as a potent rival to the mantle of the
North's preeminent political player and heir apparent to the
presidency in 2007.



7. (C) Rumors of Atiku's testing the political currents were
not completely unfounded. Notwithstanding Anenih's
scurrilous behavior, the unraveling of the Obasanjo-Atiku
relationship may have been pre-ordained by a combination of
Atiku's quiet but strong ambition and Obasanjo's patent
unpopularity. Early this year, Atiku tasked a group of
advisors and scholars to develop a National Development
Program, a macro-economic blueprint for Nigeria. A more
intimate sub-group began assessing Atiku's and Obasanjo's
respective electoral prospects. The findings that Atiku was
more popular than his boss encouraged the VP's thinking of an
independent political future. This undertaking commissioned
by Atiku did not go unnoticed by the Presidency. Obasanjo's
April electoral announcement only worsened matters. Not only
did Anenih attempt to schedule the rally when Atiku was
abroad, when Obasanjo himself mounted the rostrum to speak,
he omitted to mention the Vice President as his running-mate.
Despite this glaring omission, Obasanjo temporized for
several weeks before making a tepid statement naming Atiku as
his running-mate. (Note: Even today, the large campaign signs
only display Obasanjo's name. END Note.) For the second time,
political necessity forced an unenthusiastic Obasanjo to
embrace Atiku, their partnership returning to its original
form as the political equivalent of a shotgun wedding.


--------------
IMPEACHMENT - THE MAJOR OPENING
--------------



8. (C) The relationship between the President and Atiku
deteriorated swiftly. Supporters within and without the party
pressured Atiku to announce his candidacy; speculation about
the VP's intentions became a regular media theme. Moreover,
the National Assembly's impeachment threat furthered Atiku's
leaning toward going it alone, and the jury is out whether
Atiku helped orchestrate the impeachment move. However, as
Atiku himself admits, he has not used his considerable
political influence to rescue Obasanjo. Atiku's claim that
his passivity is a result of accusations of betrayal by
Obasanjo's advisors is convenient but unconvincing. If
Atiku's interests were served by Obasanjo emerging unscathed
from the impeachment threat, he would have pitched a helping
hand. This also would have been the best way to refute
allegations of betrayal.


-------------- --------------
AN ATIKU CANDIDACY: PROBABLE, BUT STILL UNCERTAIN
-------------- --------------



9. (C) A recent meeting of the PDP Board of Trustees was
devoted to a discussion of an alternative to Obasanjo.
Obasanjo's foes are becoming more numerous and bolder in
their pronouncements, sensing his weakness and inability to
sanction them for opposing him. Obasanjo is in real danger
of losing the PDP nomination. Atiku could help resuscitate
Obasanjo's chances with a strong show of support; however, he
seems more interested in positioning himself to take
advantage of Obasanjo's decline. Atiku is pacing on the
sidelines, giving tacit encouragement to Obasanjo's foes and
hoping that growing opposition within the party will grind
Obasanjo's reelection dreams to a halt. He probably hopes
Obasanjo will decide to throw in the towel and not seek
renomination. This would minimize future accusations of
betrayal. If Obasanjo proves stubborn and continues with his
candidacy, Atiku may wait until the last minute to publicly
break with the President. By that time and with Obasanjo
facing a wall of opposition, Atiku could be "drafted" as the
only candidate that represents both newness and continuity,
thus reconciling the fragments of an internally embattled
political party. (Note: However, we have heard from one
source that Atiku tendered his resignation late September but
was persuaded to retract it. We cannot substantiate this and
Atiku did not confirm this during his frank discussion
reported reftel. End Note)



10. (C) Atiku would be a formidable candidate. Over the
years, particularly the last three as Vice President, he has
amassed a sizable fortune through both legitimate and
questionable means. Taking a page from the Babangida manual,
Atiku has spread his largesse wisely, developing a network of
elected politicians, traditional leaders, government
officials and businessmen who owe him favors. While, in its
totality, his network is not as influential or affluent as
Babangida's, it likely surpasses those of any other
politician. However, an important consideration for Atiku is
the substantial overlap between his network and Babangida's.
Many of the same businessmen who profited from their ties to
Babangida in the early nineties have a similar relationship
with Atiku now. The question of who controls the loyalty of
these figures may be a key factor in a Babangida-Atiku
contest for influence.



11. (C) While a formidable candidate, hurdles standing in
Atiku's way include:


-- Obasanjo: If he fails to win re-nomination, Obasanjo will
blame Atiku. He could well use the rest of his tenure to
reign vindictiveness on the Vice President, seeking to block
his PDP nomination and his election.


-- North: Atiku is not well respected by many in the Northern
political class. He is not from the Northwest, the heart of
the region's political power, and is considered an upstart of
modest pedigree. Moerover, some see Atiku, although a
Moslem, as anti-Islamic because of his public statements
against Shari'a. Fort his and other reasons, he has been in a
running feud with the ACF, the principal Northern political
organization. Finally, many northerners see Atiku as having
done far too little for their region.


-- Southwest: If seen as having torpedoed Obasanjo, Atiku
would face opposition in the Southwest. While not enamored
with Obasanjo, many Yorubas would still see Atiku's candidacy
as the beginning of the dreaded return to national power of
the Northern elite, even though Atiku is disliked by many
Northerners. One way to minimize this backlash would be to
select a Yoruba running mate. Longtime friend Lagos State
Governor Bola Tinubu has been rumored for that slot.
However, bringing Tinubu into the PDP from the AD would cause
ripples within the PDP and possible opposition from the AD.
While the Southwest could be especially problematic, Atiku
has also tried to court governors from the South-South and
Southeast as well.


-- Religion: Although Atiku is not considered a devout
Moslem, religious tensions could grow if he fails to choose a
Christian running mate. (Tinubu is Moslem.)


-- Disloyalty Factor: While (almost) all is fair in Nigerian
politics, Atiku will be walking uncharted territory by
challenging Obasanjo. Many Nigerians may not want to reward
him for what seems like a betrayal of the President. Then
there is the matter of blatant hypocrisy. Only a few months
ago Atiku publicly stated he would rather be Obasanjo's VP
than head his own ticket. Atiku seems to be banking on the
belief that Obasanjo is so unpopular, the people will view
Atiku's challenge as a rescue rather than a betrayal.


-- Corruption Factor: Atiku is considered corrupt by many
people. Obasanjo or an ally could present an "Atiku Dossier"
before the ICPC, the federal anti-corruption commission, or
to the general public. An Obasanjo ally has already filed a
case against another Obasanjo foe, House Speaker Ghali
Na'Abba.


--------------
The Babangida Factor
--------------



12. (C) The Vice -President told us that Babangida has urged
him to run. Atiku reportedly has reciprocated Babangida's
support with the promise to be a one-term President, thus
opening the door to Babangida in 2007. However, taking
Babangida's encouragement at face value could be dangerous.
Babangida's baseline political objective is to remain the
North's preeminent political actor. Atiku represents a known
threat to that aspiration. If Atiku supplants Obasanjo, Atiku
becomes the most important political player in Nigeria and
the North by virtue of his office and the power it affords.
Moreover, the wily Babangida knows Atiku's one-term promise
is utterly unenforceable. Babangida probably is not
encouraging Atiku to run so that he can win, but to break the
erstwhile Obasanjo-Atiku alliance. Babangida is probably
calculating that the best way to defeat Obasanjo and Atiku is
to divide and conquer the duo by exploiting and increasing
their mutual mistrust. By forcing Atiku's hand now when he
is not quite ready, Babangida would not have to contend in
2007 with an Atiku flush with the benefits of four additional
years of incumbency. Babangida's play could conceivably
destroy Atiku politically and irrevocably.


--------------
COMMENT
--------------



13. (C) The signs of the time point to Atiku challenging
Obasanjo. It is significant that the VP is not helping
Obasanjo contend with the impeachment battle. Nowadays, the
two rarely speak or meet privately. Meanwhile, Atiku is
marshalling his strength within the party. He is talking to
PDP State Governors and members of the party NEC. A cagey
operator, Atiku is letting others stalk Obasanjo while he
awaits the right time to move. Atiku can only gain the
Presidency in 2003 by emerging from Obasanjo's shadow, but,
in doing so, he also exposes himself to political jeopardy.
This is Atiku's dilemma. He thinks he can sprint past
Obasanjo to seize the PDP nomination, but what he does not
know is who, beside Obasanjo, will oppose his ambitions.
Atiku claims Babangida has told him to run. However, he must
wonder if Babangida is laying in wait to ambush him
politically.



14. (C) As a candidate, Atiku presents a mix of good and bad.
Hands down, he is a more astute politician than Obasanjo.
Atiku would not commit the many insensitive blunders that
have undermined Obasanjo's popularity and cause so much
friction between the Executive and Legislature and the
President and the political elite. He has been a friend of
the private sector and the business community. He also is
friendly toward the United States, would seek a good
relationship and would not try to undermine our interests in
Nigeria. However, he is considered venal and has used his
position to accumulate significant business interests that
enriched him and his cronies.



15. (C) Atiku is an accomplished practitioner of the politics
of business as usual. As such, his commitment to fight
corruption and promote genuine economic reform is suspect.
All in all, Atiku grades much better than Obasanjo on style;
but on substance, he probably brings to the table much less
of what Nigerians need or want to secure a better and
different future.
JETER