NIGERIA: IMPLEMENTING THE BAKASSI RULING, A

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002833

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958:DECL: 10/11/2007
TAGS: PBTS PREL MOPS MARR PINS CM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: IMPLEMENTING THE BAKASSI RULING, A
GON CLARRIFICATION


REF: A) ABUJA 2813; B) BROWNE-FULLER 10/10/02 TELCOM


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER FOR REASONS
1.5 (B) AND (D).



1. (U) On October 10 MFA Permanent Secretary Dan Hart
phoned Ambassador to clarify a statement made during
their earlier October 7 meeting on Bakassi (Reftel A).



2. (C) At the earlier meeting, Hart stated the GON
wanted a "Joint Implementing Committee" with Cameroon
in order to manage the post-decision implementation
process. Instead of a joint implementation committee
focused solely on the Bakassi, Hart said the GON would
rather create a "Reconciliation and Good
Neighborliness Committee." According to Hart, the
committee would be all embracing. While the ICJ
ruling and its implementation would be an important
part of its work, the Committee as envisioned by the
GON, would deal with all aspects of bilateral
relations, from consular matters to trade.



3. (C) As part of GON efforts to establish stronger
ties with Cameroon, there had been discussions within
the Abuja government about urging Cameroon to join
ECOWAS.



4. (C) Hart also said that Obasanjo would call
Cameroonian President Biya immediately after the
judgement was announced. We have no details yet about
the call.



5. (C) Comment: The GON is exploring ways to lessen
the sting of an adverse ICJ judgement. The obtusely
named Reconciliation Committee is one such approach.
By engaging the Cameroonians on other issues besides
their border dispute, the GON hopes the give and take
on these other fronts will spill over into discussions
about the ICJ decision. Moreover, the more the GON
can focus Yaounde on the benefits of an enhanced
bilateral relationship, the less likely Yaounde may
push for swift implementation of the Bakassi ruling.
The GON wants to make it appear that the practical
effect of a "new" relationship with Cameroon trumps
the legal ruling and that the situation on the ground
will not undergo swift, radical change. If the GON
can create this perception, they will be able to
better manage public opinion and internal GON hard-
liners that might want to fight in order to save the
land "stolen" by the ICJ. The big question for Nigeria
is whether Cameroon is willing to play.
JETER