NIGERIA: INEC CLOSES REGISTRATION; MANY UNABLE TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002739 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2012 TAGS: PGOV SOCI KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: INEC CLOSES REGISTRATION; MANY UNABLE TO VOTE REF: A. ABUJA 2675 ¶B. ABUJA 2720 Classified by DCM Timothy D. Andrews. Reasons 1.5 (B & D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: INEC wrapped up the ten-day (plus one) voter registration period without resolving the most important complaint against the exercise: an inadequate supply of registration materials resulting in the disenfranchisement of roughly half of Nigeria's eligible voters. On September 21, the last day of registration, EmbOffs traveled outside Abuja to witness firsthand the paucity of materials and the swarms of frustrated potential-voters and registration officials in Kaduna, Nassarawa and Niger States. There was no evidence of a regional, religious or geographic bias in the misconduct of the exercise -- incompetence seems to have been the key. INEC must now respond to widespread complaints that registration was fundamentally incomplete and to calls for an extension of the process. Whether this registration will produce a credible voters' list accepted by the general public will depend on the extent that INEC heeds these complaints. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Extending the ten-day exercise by one day, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) closed voter registration on Sunday, September 22. Receiving a rush shipment of registration forms from its South African supplier, INEC attempted to distribute the forms throughout the country in the last hours of the registration period, using Presidential and military air assets, among others. Days before, INEC Chairman Dr. Abel Guobadia had stated emphatically that registration would not be extended. However, on Septmber 21, INEC Secretary Dr. Hakeem Baba- Ahmed announced the one-day extension to allow the newly arrived 2 million registration forms to be used. The extension was effective in some areas, but not in others. ¶3. (C) EmbOffs visited sites in Nassarawa, Kaduna and Niger states as well as within the Federal Capital Territory on September 21. Personnel at most centers visited reported that they did not have registration forms for between four and six days of the ten-day period. Registration personnel reported initially receiving forms for fifty percent of the expected turnout for each location. During the course of the ten-day effort, some sites sporadically received fresh supplies, usually only a few dozen at a time. Several reported receiving no further materials after the initial supply had been exhausted. Late that afternoon, new forms arrived at some sites, but in insufficient quantities to cover most of the prospective registrants who had been waiting for hours. In many areas, voters had tired of waiting in line. Instead, as a delivery of forms came, the local grapevine would spread the word and applicants would return to queue again. In some centers, officials gave out line tickets to help preserve order and good humor. ¶4. (C) In Kaduna, similar shortages were apparent in both the northern (Muslim) and southern (Christian) districts of the city. Emboffs observed fully-staffed registration centers standing idle for want of materials. Representative Florence Aya (PDP-Kaduna) declared that "one million new forms" would be required to complete the registration process in Kaduna. In some instances, frustrated citizens vented their anger at INEC officials, but for the most part, people channeled their frustration in the form of harmless taunting of the INEC officials. There was one report of an angry would-be registrant opening fire on queue-jumpers at a registration center in Abuja (four injuries, none fatal). ¶5. (C) While exact numbers are not yet available, credible estimates suggest fifty percent of eligible voters who wanted to register might have been denied the chance. The true figure could vary significantly, as we cannot know the number of citizens who could not spare the hours (sometimes days) required to register. Critics continue to highlight INEC inefficiency (Ref B) and incompetence as the primary reason for serious problems with the exercise. Some also cite anecdotes of multiple registrations, registration of minors, hoarding of forms by political players, and other fraudulent practices. INEC sticks by its original estimates that the original 70 million forms along with the 2 million supplemental forms should have been enough to register every eligible voter. Attempting to shift the blame from INEC's national secretariat, Baba-Ahmed continued to reiterate his claim that "local officials, politicians and fraudsters" hoarded or sold the forms. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: INEC's decision to close the registration period without resolving the complaints about the lack of forms and the resultant failure to register significant numbers of eligible voters is troubling. To make the voters list as credible and as publicly acceptable as possible, INEC should extend the process to allow all willing and eligible Nigerians to register. If INEC does not extend the process or waits too long to make the decision, the numerous complaints that INEC was incompetent or unprepared will turn into cries that, from the outset, INEC intended the registration process to be unfair. JETER