C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002267

SIPDIS




LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY


E.O.12958: DECL: 07/29/12
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: METHODIST ARCHBISHOP TOUTS OBASANJO --
THE PRESIDENT WILL WIN!


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reason 1.5 (B)
and (D).



1. Summary: (C) During a July 5 meeting with Ambassador
Jeter, Methodist Archbishop Sunday Mbang felt Obasanjo was
performing well and would win reelection. One of Nigeria's
most influential clerics, Mbang attributed much of the
criticism levied at the President to Obasanjo's clamping
down on corruption and politics as usual. Mbang predicted
former Head of State Babangida would be attacked heavily by
pro-democracy and human rights groups should he join the
presidential race. Mbang also downplayed the Southeast's
clamor for an Igbo President as premature, believing the
Igbos have not yet been fully rehabilitated politically
since the end of the Biafran civil war. Co-chairman of the
Inter-Religious Council, Mbang asserted the Council had
successfully prevented communal violence in many areas and
that the group would focus more attention on discouraging
electoral violence. End Summary


--------------
NIGERIAN POLITICS -- A MURKY GAME
--------------



2. (C) During a July 5 visit with Ambassador Jeter at
AmConsul Lagos, Archbishop Mbang stated he had predicted
the political situation would be tumultuous because of the
gross overreacting and overreaching by civilian politicians
were out of control because they lacked responsibility.
Civilian politicians were engaged in a no-holds barred
contest to gain office or to keep it. Mbang recalled
recently walking into the VIP lounge in the Abuja airport,
the lounge crowded with politicians and government
officials. Taking advantage of this impromptu and captive
congregation, Mbang gave the briefest of sermonettes
culminating with his asking the group why they sought or
held public office. Still tongues and evasive eyes were the
collective reply, he said. The cause of Nigeria's current
muddle was that its political class was absorbed by an
ideology of self-interest, not the collective good, Mbang

stressed.


--------------
OBASANJO BETTER THAN THE REST
--------------



3. (C) Mbang believed Obasanjo was performing well given
the dysfunctional system he inherited and the strong
resistance of politicians to meaningful reform. He cited
liberalization of the telecom sector, road construction,
slow but steady progress improving the electrical grid, and
the fight against corruption as real, albeit still
unfinished, Obasanjo accomplishments. Mbang believed
Obasanjo deserved four more years to complete his work and
consolidate democracy. Moreover, most educated Nigerians
felt the same way. However, Mbang acknowledged Obasanjo was
having serious problems in his own party to the extent that
recapturing the party nomination was not certain. Many of
Obasanjo's own Cabinet Ministers have been heard muttering
that " Baba has to go, he does not let us chop." (Chop is
local slang for engaging in corrupt practices.)



4. (C) Drawing attention to the electoral map, Mbang
stated:


-- Northwest: Obasanjo would lose here because the region's
leadership was angered the President had closed the spigot,
stifling avenues of corruption and cut them off from
accustomed but unlawful revenue.


--Northeast: Retaining Vice President Atiku as his running
mate would help Obasanjo win the Northeast and adjoining
areas.


--Middle Belt: Most Christians in this zone would support
Obasanjo. Mbang mentioned receiving a delegation of
influential Middle Belt and Northern Christians who backed
Obasanjo, stating he needed four more years to consolidate
democracy . An unknown question is whether Vice President
Atiku's close ties to the populous Tiv would secure
significant Tiv support notwithstanding last October's
massacre of civilians in Benue State by army soldiers.


--Southeast: Mbang thought this region still might vote for
Obasanjo, the determining factor being who emerged as
Obasanjo's chief opponent.


-- South-South: Support hinged on resolution of the oil
revenue allocation issue. Mbang felt Obasanjo has made
headway judging from recent positive comments by Awka Ibom
Governor Victor Attah whose state was the most adversely
affected by the Supreme Court ruling on the oil revenue.
--Southwest: Will vote for Obasanjo en masse, Mbang
believed.



5. (C) The Archbishop thought former Head of State
Babangida (IBB) would be reluctant to run. Babangida erred
by failing to appear before the Oputa Panel, Nigeria's
Truth & Reconciliation Commission that looked into past
military governments' human rights practices. IBB
compounded the mistake by seeking a court injunction
against government implementation of the Panel's
recommendations for a criminal investigation into the
unsolved murder of journalist Dele Giwa which happened
during Babangida's tenure. IBB's attempts to stymie the
investigation confirmed suspicions of him held by many
Nigerians. If Babangida thrusts himself into the contest,
Mbang said that he will be hounded by questions about Giwa
and other human rights abuses that IBB would rather not
have to answer. Regarding the other Northern former
military Head of State seeking the presidency, Muhammadu
Buhari, Mbang discounted him as a religious chauvinist
whose appeal was strictly limited to the North.



6. (C) The Archbishop contended that attempts by the
President's foes to field a Southeast/Northwest
Presidential ticket would not reach fruition. The Southeast
has not been fully rehabilitated politically, he claimed.
People in many other parts of the country would suspect
that an Igbo would use the Presidency to unjustly enrich
his region or as a platform for succession. Moreover, he
doubted that a credible Northerner would play second fiddle
to an Igbo President. Flipping the ticket to a
Northwest/Southeast combination would still pose problems,
Mbang indicated. Most other sections of the country would
rail against the return of national leadership to the
Northwest after only four years.



7. (C) The Archbishop implied the high political anxiety
Nigeria was experiencing was because the outcome of the
election would determine the balance of power between
Nigeria's geopolitical regions for years to come. He
claimed the North looked askance at INEC's voter
registration plans and was petrified by the proposal to
implement a national identification card. The North has
inflated its population for years but with the use of
photographic identification opportunities to cheat would be
reduced. Mbang also noted the North was not as monolithic
as in past; more people were beginning to think
independently, breaking the grip of traditional rulers and
the political elite. The Arewa Consultative Forum, which
has vociferously opposed Obasanjo and the national identity
card, was attempting to maintain the old order but would
fail, he believed.



8. (C) Regarding the military, Mbang said the Oputa Panel
did the country a great service by exposing the military's
dirty linen for all to see. Not only has the gloss
disappeared, but the military has been placed in a very bad
light. With its stature diminished, the military would be
very hesitant to return to politics.


-------------- -
THE INTER-RELIGIOUS COUNCIL -- DOING GOOD WORK
-------------- -





9. (C) Co-Chairman of the Council along with the Sultan of
Sokoto, Mbang emphasized that the group was working well.
The Council was the brainchild of Obasanjo's pastor,
Reverend Yusuf Obaje. Formed in response to growing
communal violence, the Council's purpose is to promote
understanding and tolerance. He noted that the Council had
developed an early warning system, alerting members to
areas of tension in the country. This enabled the group to
engage in preventive diplomacy that has defused many
potentially violent situations. Mbang stated that many
religious clashes could be avoided but for the baseness of
local politicians who used religion to garner support,
particularly in the North. He recalled the Council
stepping in to cool a hot situation when a local government
chairman in Kano tried to demolish a church although the
structure had a proper building permit.



10. (C) Mbang refuted conventional wisdom that religion was
at the root of most of Nigeria's communal violence. More
often, the violence was due to fighting over scarce local
resources or local political power between different ethnic
groups. The rival ethnic groups sometimes tend to be
predominantly of different religions. When this occurs,
outside observers resort to the facile explanation of
"religious violence" to describe what essentially is
localized economic or political competition.



11. (C) Given the increasing electoral violence, Mbang
said the Inter-Religious Council will devote more attention
to the problem of elections as the campaign season
progresses. While acknowledging that more violence and
confusion are in the offing, he was optimistic that Nigeria
would "muddle through." Mbang cited the Abacha years as a
blessing in disguise. Although the political game in
Nigeria has few rules, politicians now realize how far they
can go before reaching the edge.


--------------
COMMENT
--------------



12. (C) Mbang is clearly a man of conscience; that
conscience is decidedly Christian and Southern in its
outlook. For instance, he may be a little too dismissive of
the traditional Northern elite as a spent force. Projection
of his sense of individual morality on other Christians in
the South may also lead him to believe that Babangida can
be easily harnessed; a belief most other observers do not
share. Nevertheless, Mbang is an astute observer of the
scene and is well informed. His views reflect an important
segment of thought among Southerners and Christians in
Nigeria, and, because of his position and his personal
stature, Mbang's view will also influence many Nigerians.


JETER