POSTPONING NIGERIA'S LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001942 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2007 TAGS: PGOV PINS NI SUBJECT: POSTPONING NIGERIA'S LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTIONS REF: A. ABUJA 1323 ¶B. ABUJA 1033 CLASSIFIED BY CDA ANDREWS. REASON: 1.5(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Nigeria's Local Government Council elections, slated for August 10, will almost certainly be postponed to October or later. Different actors have different specific reasons and interests, but it all boils down to lack of preparation and lack of presidential interest in seeing the local elections move forward -- the same issues that led to the May polls being delayed. If the further postponement helps players organize, prospects for a relatively smooth electoral cycle are enhanced. But if delay encourages further confrontation and leaves key issues open, the future will look less rosy. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Nigeria's Local Government Council elections, slated for August 10, following an initial postponement from May 18 (ref A),are likely to be delayed again, this time until at least October and probably until December. ¶3. (C) We come to this conclusion following a dozen-plus conversations with political actors, ranging from the Vice President to state-level political operatives for several of the parties. The expectation that the polls will be delayed is nearly unanimous, and most expect them not to hold before December. Moreover, the newly-registered parties (septel) are threatening to go to court to demand a delay on the grounds that the current schedule, which would force them to field candidates across the Federation within the next three weeks, is constitutionally deficient. Seasoned observers tell us this argument could prevail but that the political consensus in favor of postponement is strong enough that the higher courts probably will never see any lawsuit. ¶4. (C) Following are some reasons further delay is likely: -- It advances President Obasanjo's objective of collapsing the election schedule into the shortest possible period of time (all other things being equal, a short cycle would favor his candidacy. In his ideal world, Obasanjo would hold the Presidential election first, followed closely by the other contests. This would compel PDP state and local candidates to campaign almost as much for him as for themselves because their fate would be linked to his; (C) -- It suits the purposes of National Assembly Members, most of whom do not get along well with their governors and who fear that early local government elections will strengthen the governors at their expense; (SBU) -- Great confusion over the legal status of local governments created by some states after May 1999 (ref B) makes it almost impossible to hold credible polls in those states; (U) -- Several states do not have laws authorizing them to carry out elections; (U) -- Most states that do have laws probably have not set aside funds for the election and current revenue flows will not provide enough money to run the exercise and meet other state spending priorities; (U) -- The majority of the states lack trained personnel and sufficient equipment and supplies; (U) -- The new political parties will create public pressure for postponement, and their supporters could resort to violence if they feel the deck is stacked against them; (U) and -- The Constitution and state laws aside, existing Federal electoral laws favor the stance of the new parties. (U). ¶5. (C) The PDP is organizationally ready to hold primaries, according to Chairman Audu Ogbeh, but most party leaders are inclined to support a delay. However, many state governors, hoping to use the new local governments as future campaign machines, would be unhappy with another delay and could well seek incumbency pacts in return for quietly assenting to another postponement. We believe that some tacit incumbency pacts are already in place, particularly in the Southwest. ¶6. (C) In other words, a majority of the players are not ready to head to the polls. This is the same reason polls were initially delayed from May 18 to August 10. This time the actors have the opportunity to use the delay effectively. Now that the new parties have been officially recognized they must solidify their support bases and prepare for the upcoming elections. The new parties have had a foretaste of possible victory by following procedures and going through proper channels. If the process continues in this vein, then the chances for free and fair elections in the year ahead increase. ¶7. (C) However a delay in the elections gives those so inclined ample time to find new ways to manipulate or stymie the process. Many of the actors are not convinced that "playing by the rules" is in their best interest, and cannot be expected to do so. If the methods of these actors prevail, then the legitimacy of the election process is still very much in doubt. ANDREWS