C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001397

SIPDIS


OPCENTER FOR AMY FLOHR


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2012
TAGS: PGOV PINS ASEC CASC NI
SUBJECT: JOS RETURNS TO CALM FOLLOWING POLITICAL VIOLENCE

REF: ABUJA 1350


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5 (B) AND
(D)


1.(C) Summary: Jos had returned to calm after PDP Ward
Congress elections turned violent May 2 in the Northern
region of the city, Gabriel Makan, PA to Governor Dariye,
told Poloff on May 3. After the violence erupted, a joint
task force of Police, Army and Airforce was able to quell the
disturbance. However, at least 20 people were reported
killed; vehicles, houses and other property were damaged and
burned. Metropolitan Jos is under a nighttime curfew, but
people are reported to be going about their daily business
this morning. Post has received no warden reports regarding
AMCITS and has no reason to suspect that any are in danger.
This episode heightens our concern about electoral violence.
These areas that have previously experienced communal unrest
will be even more prone to recommence as electoral
competition further stirs an already volatile mix. End
Summary.


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Background On the Ward System In Jos
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2. (C) Northern Jos consists of 14 wards divided partially
along ethnic/religious lines: five are majority Hausa wards,
five majority non-Hausa wards, three wards approximately
evenly split between Hausa and non-Hausa (Laraguta A,
Laraguta B and Jarawa Jos) and one majority Yoruba ward. The
PDP members in the wards met yesterday to choose local party
officials to represent them at the local level. These local
officials would in turn elect the State officials who would
ultimately choose PDP candidates for all state elections
including the gubernatorial candidate and candidates for the
National Assembly. (Comment: These ward elections were
originally scheduled for last November. Governor Dariye
postponed these elections ostensibly due to security
concerns. Dariye claims yesterday's outbreak justifies his
decision in retrospect. Dariye would assert that such
violence in November on the heels of the September riots
would have had a more disheartening effect than the May 2
eruption. Conversely, Dariye's opponents maintain that

he
nullified the November elections because the candidates of
his choosing did not win. End Comment.)



3. (C) According to Makan, the ward congress elections in the
majority Hausa wards were conducted by consensus open ballot
rather than by secret ballot and were therefore completed
quickly. Allegedly joined by Hausas from outside Jos, and
armed with cutlasses and machetes, the group proceeded to
Laraguta A, Laraguta B and Jarawa Jos with the intent to
manipulate the election results, through intimidation, he
commented. However, the elections in these wards were also
conducted by consensus, and were already finished in Laraguta
A and Jarawa Jos before the instigators arrived. In Jarawa
Jos the interlopers reportedly held their own consensus
election in protest, after which their leaders were arrested
and the rest of the group dispersed without incident. There
were no incidents reported in Laraguta A. In Laraguta B, the
largest of the three wards, the residents confronted the
outsiders. According to Makan, at least 20 (the
International Federation of the Red Cross puts the number at
50) were killed, with victims on both sides. Houses were
torched, as were the vehicles of the outside instigators. He
added that two churches were also razed. Newspaper accounts
give a slightly different version, claiming that a
misunderstanding developed between election officials and
voters during the vote and that "miscreants" capitalized on
the confusion by throwing stones into the crowd thereby
causing the disagreement to erupt into violence. In any
event, Metropolitan Jos is currently under an 8:00 p.m. to
dawn curfew.



4. (U) Poloffs met Governor Dariye on Tuesday, April 30.
During the meeting the Governor spoke in very stark terms
about last September's violence in Jos, describing it as a
settler versus indigene problem. The governor is a Christian
who sees the Hausa/Fulani as "settlers" even though they
have been present in the region for over 100 years and
founded the original Jos settlement. The governor's attitude
was militant and he stated that the settlers were trying to
wrest political control of Jos and sabotage the state.
Dariye stated that he would oppose this alleged encroachment.
Dariye also intimated that he would not advise his
supporters to turn the other cheek should they be forcibly
confronted by political opponents.



5. (C) Poloff also spoke to Dr. Musa Musa Minister of
Commerce for Bauchi State (borders Plateau State) about the
crisis. Dr. Musa, who is Hausa/Fulani, believed that the
conflict was the result of the rivalry between Damishi Sango,
former Minister of Sports, who was removed by Dariye and is
now running for Governor against Dariye in 2003. He received
no reports of Hausas fleeing Plateau State for Bauchi State,
an exodus which had occurred during previous incidents of
ethnic violence.



6. (U) Wards in Plateau were to hold their congress elections
yesterday, however, some wards outside of Jos were unable to
do so. This will necessarily postpone the May 4 local party
Congress, until all ward elections can be completed. Makan
did not suggest a new date.


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Comment
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7. (C) Thursday's violence was spawned by inter-party rivalry
at the lowest possible level. As Nigeria moves toward local
elections in August and gubernatorial and national elections
in April 2003 the tendency for violence will likely escalate
as the political stakes become higher. Responsible leadership
on the part of elected officials, candidates and senior party
members is needed to keep the violence down. However, such
leadership may be wanting in Plateau, at least from the
Governor's Mansion, because Dariye, in some ways appears to
be eager for a fight, and given the ethnic dynamics in the
state, he may get one.
JETER