NIGERIA -- OBASANJO WILL RUN IN 2003

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001324

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958:DECL: 04/03/12
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA -- OBASANJO WILL RUN IN 2003


CLASSIFIED BY DCM ANDREWS. REASONS 1.5 (D).



1. (SBU) Summary: President Obasanjo April 25 announced
he would seek reelection in 2003 under the PDP banner.
Before a throng of several thousand people, comprised
mainly of PDP partisans drawn from near and far but
including curiosity seekers and a smattering of Abuja
denizens with nothing better to do, Obasanjo said he
was offering himself to Nigerians for a second term.
Obasanjo's speech was televised live and broadcast by
radio. End Summary.



2. (U) The cavernous International Conference Center
was "jam packed," with scores of people relegated to
sharing seats and many others left to stand where they
could, sources tell us. People crowded the stairways
and packed themselves elbow to elbow into the spacious
lobby, using whatever they could to fan themselves in a
hopeless effort to fight off the heat generated by this
human congestion. A huge crowd milled outside the
building, hoping for a glance at the large screens
inside the lobby that were depicting the proceedings to
those not lucky or important enough to have won seats
inside the main hall. Despite the crammed quarters,
the mood was celebratory, bordering on "jovial" with
singers and cultural dance troupes from different parts
of the country plying their craft.



3. (C) This event was the predicted denouement to weeks
of feverish activity by Obasanjo's campaign
strategists, headed by Works Minister Tony Anenih, to
secure Obasanjo's support base within the party prior
to the President going public with his intentions. The
strategy had been to cajole or arm-twist as many
elected PDP officials as possible to signal their
support for Obasanjo before the grand finale. That
strategy also involved giving a media spin to meetings
Obasanjo held with PDP notables by characterizing these
sessions as manifestations of support for the
President's reelection. While PDP maverick and former
Kano Governor Abubakar Rimi announced his candidacy and
opposition to Obasanjo months ago, the President's
political machine discounts Rimi as a hollow threat. No
other credible candidate has emerged within the PDP
yet, and this rally will make it far more difficult for
one to do so. Obasanjo's strategists believe they
control the party apparatus and thus can virtually
assure Obasanjo's re-nomination. That the rally was
organized by an ad hoc "Committee of Friends" comprised
of Governors, Cabinet Ministers and many National
Assembly members, reinforces the perception that
Obasanjo's team hold the reins of the party's
machinery.



4. (U) Obasanjo spoke for roughly 45 minutes. After
stating that he would run in 2003, Obasanjo's delivery
was interrupted by loud applause. Evidently enjoying
the decibel increase, Obasanjo twice repeated his
statement with both iterations prompting energetic
cheering. In an attempt to draw a distinction between
2003 and the 1999 election, which many people
complained was orchestrated by a small circle among the
political elite, Obasanjo told the friendly gathering
that he would make himself accessible to the people in
the upcoming campaign.



5. (U) While stating he would make his break with the
past campaign, Obasanjo advised the people against
breaking with the past three years of his governance.
The overall theme of his speech and other statements at
the event was continuity in government. While alluding
that mistakes might have been made, Obasanjo and the
others who took the podium exhorted the crowd to stay
the course to promote stability. People in audience
were heard echoing, "let the legacy continue."
Consistent with previous statements that he was waiting
for heavenly counsel before making a decision on 2003,
Obasanjo began singing a Christian hymn as his
peroration to what was inherently a most political of
speeches.



6. (C) During a brief meeting with Ambassador Jeter the
day before, NSA Aliyu Mohammed had intimated that the
rally was organized not only as a vehicle for Obasanjo
to make his statement but also as a show of intra-party
support. Mohammed added that the rally was the
beginning of an intensive two days of glad-handing and
meetings between Obasanjo and myriad party notables,
especially elected officials. The clear implication
was that the President would try to press the flesh and
show charm to ensure the officials left Abuja with
Obasanjo on their minds in a positive way.



7. (C) House Speaker Ghali Na'Abba was conspicuously
absent from the event although listed on the program.
Na'Abba has been attempting to undermine Obasanjo for
months. Mohammed Fadlallah, an influential Kano
businessman, informed us that Na'Abba recently had
confided his presidential ambitions to Fadlallah.
Na'Abba avoided the event because his presence would
have been seen as an endorsement.



8. (C) But now, Na'Abba and other PDP malcontents who
have agitated against Obasanjo face a decision more
profound than absenting themselves from Obasanjo's
political self-christening. They will have to decide
whether to formally challenge Obasanjo for the PDP
nomination, or encourage others to do so. Na'Abba
faces special challenges. The PDP reportedly has
decided to adopt "A4" style primaries. A contestant
for a seat in the House of Representatives must first
win his ward and then his local government area before
being considered. Na'Abba has managed to annoy not
only State House in Abuja, but also Government House in
Kano. Both will doubtless endeavor to stop his renewed
candidacy during the primaries. Although just as
stubborn as Obasanjo, Na'Abba may decide to cut a deal
to preserve his seat (if not the Speakership) and board
Obasanjo's train.



9. (C) Meanwhile, newspapers report the leadership of
Arewa Consultative Forum is actively reviewing the
names of over a dozen Northern political figures,
including former Heads of State Buhari and Babangida as
well as Speaker Na'Abba, in attempt to arrive at a
consensus Northern candidate to oppose Obasanjo. Now
that Obasanjo has announced formally, Arewa's efforts
will take on greater urgency and generate increased
media attention as well as speculation. Arewa is not
likely to challenge Obasanjo within the PDP; use of the
APP or one of the new parties as its vehicle is more
likely.



10. (C) While some of his opponents may have hoped
against hope that Obasanjo would not run, he ended up
doing the expected. He will press forward with the
tools of incumbency and apparently much of the PDP
national machinery at his disposal. Now that Obasanjo
has made his long awaited thrust, we await to see how
his opponents will parry. End comment


JETER